Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[SLEETY]

19 minutes ago, DavidS said:

Hey ho, it will no doubt all look different by tomorrow or possibly even this evening. Chins up!

It would be nice to think so,but let’s be honest we have been stuck in this wretched pattern of Azores High and icelandic low since winter started, which has ruined yet another winter in the u.k.,if you prefer more seasonal  weather.

And heading into February no sign from ANY model of any change to something very much colder.

[Methuselah]

I'd suggest (given the heat building down south) that Spring, when it arrives, will be one of rather extreme temperature fluctuations? But, will it snow and where? TBH, I've nae got a scooby!

    

Either way, there's more to weather-watching than merely analysing the fortunes of the tPV?

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The truth is why does zonality so rarely deliver a polar maritime based zonal setup?  If a zonal flow sets up and aligns NW-SE then polar maritime air can bring snow for favoured areas further north and temperatures are certainly not mild for the majority.  Sadly a zonal setup is almost always of a tropical maritime origin and delivers mild weather of the likes of what has been the case for a large chunk of this month and including these next few days.  It just seems so rare nowadays for a zonal setup to set up favourably to bring air of a polar maritime origin.

We do get cold zonal at times but this winter even that has been lacking due to the jet stream angle of being more SW to NE so milder weather has been more the norm. 

UKMO and ECM less amplified and the result is a downgrade of the northerly, models has been fairly good on the trends I have to say but as usual it's how much amplification there is that leads to how strong any northerly flow is. 

[IDO]

Finally GFS getting the phasing of the ridge closer to the consensus, so further west:

 ECM>

Gives us a better colder flow and make the most of this wave for the favoured areas.

Edited January 30, 2020 by IDO

[shaky]

Aaand gfs 06z joins the icone!!more amplified and further west

[Polar Maritime]

A much sharper Northerly showing on the 6z for next Tuesday, With Heights further West and North..

Edited January 30, 2020 by Polar Maritime

[swfc]

8 minutes ago, shaky said:

Aaand gfs 06z joins the icone!!more amplified and further west

Yes a brief blast and then cool and dry which is what looked likely.that said it is the "cough" GFS

[mushymanrob]

Not sure why we cannot claim "winters over" tbh, in terms of a proper cold spell at least.

The MJO is in the circle of doom.

The AO is now predicted to be positive

The SPV is now not expected to weaken enough, but to regain strength.

The Anomaly charts suggesty a very average, normal, zonal upper pattern.

Is there any viable route to a proper cold spell? given the time lag required by the Strat/MJO. 

Sorry, but without an obvious, viable, route to cold by this time of the year then surely, the odds are stacked against it.

[Chris101]

Gfs 06z, get the pop corn out.

Winter model entertainment at it's best

Like a massive pendulum that wont stop swinging.

[shaky]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Yes a brief blast and then cool and dry which is what looked likely.that said it is the "cough" GFS

Defo agree with you mate!!we know what the eventual outcome shall be!!but at least theres something to talk about in this sorry excuse of a winter!!even if that means its a 1 day northerly

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

Not sure why we cannot claim "winters over" tbh, in terms of a proper cold spell at least.

The MJO is in the circle of doom.

The AO is now predicted to be positive

The SPV is now not expected to weaken enough, but to regain strength.

The Anomaly charts suggesty a very average, normal, zonal upper pattern.

Is there any viable route to a proper cold spell? given the time lag required by the Strat/MJO. 

Sorry, but without an obvious, viable, route to cold by this time of the year then surely, the odds are stacked against it.

What are you apologising for?

Last week no sign of cold after Monday.and maybe the warmest February ever being touted.

Weekend bring the northerly into play with the hint of something more

Winter doesn't need a proper cold spell, or that should be snow falls do not not need proper cold spells

Winter is Winter regardless of the weather and it can be cold long into March

 

[Redbull165]

Here in Slovenia on the SE part of the Alps we had an incredible bad snow season for now. On my elevation 300 m, and near the 1500 m high hills we had from december to now 15 cm together. Our average yearly snow accumulation is 125 cm! And barely 5 of snow days for now, it looks like the worst winter at least in 19 years. The hills from 400-1000 m got no snow now, from 1000-1500 m there is couple of cm. But such a winter near the Alps is a disgrace really. We saw a single Genoa low-pressure system this season.

But its different on the northern parts of the Alps, which are seeing some snow in nearly every week with the NW orographic (winds) effect from Atlantic.

Edited January 30, 2020 by Redbull165

[swfc]

12 minutes ago, shaky said:

Defo agree with you mate!!we know what the eventual outcome shall be!!but at least theres something to talk about in this sorry excuse of a winter!!even if that means its a 1 day northerly

It's what it is Shaky  and know amount of gnashing of teeth will change that will it.you can't polish a turd so let's just cheer up I reckon .you never know the m+s might kick in and give us a snow shower

Edited January 30, 2020 by swfc

[IDO]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

Not sure why we cannot claim "winters over" tbh, in terms of a proper cold spell at least.

The MJO is in the circle of doom.

The AO is now predicted to be positive

The SPV is now not expected to weaken enough, but to regain strength.

The Anomaly charts suggesty a very average, normal, zonal upper pattern.

Is there any viable route to a proper cold spell? given the time lag required by the Strat/MJO. 

Sorry, but without an obvious, viable, route to cold by this time of the year then surely, the odds are stacked against it.

Yes, for those of us that are interested in charts and signals we are just reporting on what we see. ATM it is pretty dire, but of course that is what is showing, if the data changes then we can re-evaluate our conclusions.

As for the ridge it does seem that models find it very difficult to model same especially when there is little forcing, more the ebb and flow of features. Also wedges of heights close to Siberia and the Arctic vary per model pre-D10, and this influences the forcing of the tPV chunks.

Unfortunately post-D8 GFS still showing a dominant Pacific High and we know from earlier this winter this is a poor feature for UK blocking, channels the tPV to our NW, and will no doubt rebuild the Russian/Siberian high; hence my pessimism for the foreseeable.

[mushymanrob]

9 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

What are you apologising for?



 

because im not a cold chaser, im a realist, im not trying to antagonise coldies.

[Man With Beard]

ECM clusters - still favouring a very short northerly next week - back-edge snow a possibility?

Then slowing returning to milder weather the following weekend, and a possible NW/SE split, with NW unsettled at times and the SE relatively calm (except on cluster 3)

However, Valentines week looks to start with a recipe for a storm - look how tight those anomalies are, and the depth of the upper trough - I don't think this winter is done with storms yet. Always a chance a set-up like cluster 3 could be wintry in northern areas. 

  

[JoeShmoe]

Got to think we are in with a shout of warmest UK year ever if that warm air to the south appears in early spring ...

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

4 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Got to think we are in with a shout of warmest UK year ever if that warm air to the south appears in early spring ...

Need a cool summer to offset the mild winter now

[SMU]

Models pretty much on the same page now a brief window of cold spanning a couple of days -

However the overwhelming trend from the GFS is to work towards another extreme +AO event 

Some +4 to +6 values appearing around day 10 onwards.

That almost seals the deal on winter 19/20 for the SE / E - The pattern may be a bit more favourable for the NW / NI & Scotland but I fear it game over for here.

[swfc]

Looking into the bowels of 6z GFS look at the heighths in southern Europe France etc.woudnt look out of place in spring,summer.barring there recent flash flooding I'm guessing it hasn't been a bad winter temp wise.Looking on the nhp on the 6z the PV looks pretty solid and zero sign of any break

[IDO]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Looking into the bowels of 6z GFS look at the heighths in southern Europe France etc.woudnt look out of place in spring,summer.barring there recent flash flooding I'm guessing it hasn't been a bad winter temp wise.Looking on the nhp on the 6z the PV looks pretty solid and zero sign of any break

Yes, FI and GFS switching between an Iberian or Euro high anomaly as the westerly flow drags HP cells from the Pacific ad infinitum. Subtle differences for the UK, but for southern UK pretty poor either option.

0z: 06z:

[Chris101]

Still plenty of time for the inevitable tweaks in all of the outputs in the next few days.

Any small change could lead to a bit of longevity, slightly colder feed.

When the ridge builds it will do as it wants and not what the models say it should.

[syed2878]

25 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Models pretty much on the same page now a brief window of cold spanning a couple of days -

However the overwhelming trend from the GFS is to work towards another extreme +AO event 

Some +4 to +6 values appearing around day 10 onwards.

That almost seals the deal on winter 19/20 for the SE / E - The pattern may be a bit more favourable for the NW / NI & Scotland but I fear it game over for here.

  With all due respect Steve winter 1920 didn’t even start here there is no game to be over because we were never in the game to start with all that has been is just some false dawns.   And again after the garden path walk the models are looking poor again nothing new for this poor excuse of a winter

Edited January 30, 2020 by syed2878

[swfc]

17 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Still plenty of time for the inevitable tweaks in all of the outputs in the next few days.

Any small change could lead to a bit of longevity, slightly colder feed.

When the ridge builds it will do as it wants and not what the models say it should.

Yes it could for a short period but I suspect a thermal nuclear device would be needed to break the PV and bring anything of note.still anything is possible

[Jeremy Shockey]

 

GFS 6z @ 144

 Uppers @ 144

A slightly better effort from the GFS 6Z , showing the 2 day Northerly before the High moves over the UK and then slowly collapses.

Likely to be very chilly down the East coast of the UK ( Feb 4-6 ) and still time for upgrades if the High is orientated slightly further West.