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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Lol nice post but if I had a pound for every time someone says:

• Looks like anything can happen!

• However I have a feeling that ____ will happen

• But the weather will do what it wants, so let’s enjoy the ride!

... I would have enough money to enjoy the actual winters and summers that happen everywhere else, all over the world

True but at the end of the day we are all on here for the same thing, we are all weather interested folk whether it’s cold or hot we generally like the extreme end of it. And the models do have a habit of throwing up the unexpected at times

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

Just last week the GFS was consistently showing run after run a very deep area of low pressure passing by the West of the UK but the UKMO and ECM weren't interested in that idea and slowly but surely after about 3 runs the GFS backed away from that idea in a similar time-frame to which we're seeing here. So it will be interesting to see whether the 00z run continues this or not.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Despite the GFS criticisms, the UKMO and ECM outputs are not that far away from being flatter and it is very fine margins either way. And if we are honest, the ECM is less amplified than previous runs, not to say it can't change in the morning but I don't see a lengthy cold snap on the way and most runs sends most of the cold unstable northerly flow to our east so snowfall looks limited. Hopefully than change in future runs. 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, Zenarcher said:

Just last week the GFS was consistently showing run after run a very deep area of low pressure passing by the West of the UK but the UKMO and ECM weren't interested in that idea and slowly but surely after about 3 runs the GFS backed away from that idea in a similar time-frame to which we're seeing here. So it will be interesting to see whether the 00z run continues this or not.

Or maybe its best not to look at the gfs at all, considering how useless it's been the past 48 hours lol. What's the point of it going out to 384 hours when at 96 hours it gets it hopelessly wrong. 

Remember the met Office don't incude it when making their forecasts , they just glance at it, so I have heard. 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
4 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Despite the GFS criticisms, the UKMO and ECM outputs are not that far away from being flatter and it is very fine margins either way. And if we are honest, the ECM is less amplified than previous runs, not to say it can't change in the morning but I don't see a lengthy cold snap on the way and most runs sends most of the cold unstable northerly flow to our east so snowfall looks limited. Hopefully than change in future runs. 

Spot on! Sadly the amplification from the UKMO has vanished this morning with a toppling high.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

A pathetic 24 hour NW'ly on the UKMO and then this dross...

image.thumb.png.20c66fa2935279dc0bda177e5bc1f9cd.png

Setting up for a boring UK high or even a Euro High there. Energy piling over the top. What a wretched, insult of a winter this is.

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, LRD said:

A pathetic 24 hour NW'ly on the UKMO and then this dross...

image.thumb.png.20c66fa2935279dc0bda177e5bc1f9cd.png

Setting up for a boring UK high or even a Euro High there. Energy piling over the top

Yes after all the hyping over it last night it changes?? Maybe it will change back but the average outlook continues moving into February altho at least it will be dry

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Yes, another kick in the teeth from winter 19/20.

It's Paul I feel sorry for, the website is very quiet compared to normal! Such a shame to not have the usual buzz, like being on TWO ;)

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Pffff just like that my prediction from the other day comes to light this morning!!flat as a pancake lol!!love tight isobars positivity but we gota be realistic and this was always gona happen after all the let downs this winter!!

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
42 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, another kick in the teeth from winter 19/20.

It's Paul I feel sorry for, the website is very quiet compared to normal! Such a shame to not have the usual buzz, like being on TWO ;)

Again, the UKMO at D6 is deemed useless when there is amplification in the mix. It seems to be 24h behind the game and now showing what the GFS showed most of yesterday; hopeless all winter in such scenarios for D6.

Looks like after D4 a brief 2-day topple giving us a burst of NW'lys. 

After this, ECM and GFS meet at D10 with a return to zonal, possibly of the colder variety (for favoured areas), sourced from the NW, but for the S/SE not much use:

graphe9_1000_301_152___.thumb.png.e4fc1d78bdff11bc24f6c7cdc07796b6.pnganim_zxo6.gif

^^^The sine wave activity of a zonal setup clear. Above the D16 tPV looks as strong as it has ever been this winter and clearly it has won this time and now it is heading home, the opportunity for the ebb and flow to bring us some high-lat block in our region has lessened. Zonal of some variety for the next 16-days would be a good call with the ongoing status quo since late December.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, another kick in the teeth from winter 19/20.

It's Paul I feel sorry for, the website is very quiet compared to normal! Such a shame to not have the usual buzz, like being on TWO ;)

TWO is dead for a reason other than the weather though.  

It’s a pretty miserable outlook this morning, barely a cold NW’ly now if we’re lucky.  We knew GFS would probably roll back, but it’s still annoying even when it does what you expect it too! 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
18 minutes ago, IDO said:

Again, the UKMO at D6 is deemed useless when there is amplification in the mix. It seems to be 24h behind the game and now showing what the GFS showed most of yesterday; hopeless all winter in such scenarios for D6.

Looks like after D4 a brief 2-day topple giving us a burst of NW'lys. 

After this, ECM and GFS meet at D10 with a return to zonal, possibly of the colder variety (for favoured areas), sourced from the NW, but for the S/SE not much use:

graphe9_1000_301_152___.thumb.png.e4fc1d78bdff11bc24f6c7cdc07796b6.pnganim_zxo6.gif

^^^The sine wave activity of a zonal setup clear. Above the D16 tPV looks as strong as it has ever been this winter and clearly it has won this time and now it is heading home, the opportunity for the ebb and flow to bring us some high-lat block in our region has lessened. Zonal of some variety for the next 16-days would be a good call with the ongoing status quo since late December.

Ext EPS paints a similar story.  Very positive AO / NAO.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
4 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Yes the truth is that when one model shows a less cold outcome compared to other models or downgrades a cold snap that sadly most often verifies.

There wasn’t ever a cold snap modelled though, this is what people forget. It showed up in a few op runs and ensembles, but was also countered by a significant number of mild ensemble members. Face facts, a weak high coming up before it flattens out to more zonality through the middle of February. That’s just how it is folks.

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
15 minutes ago, Beanz said:

TWO is dead for a reason other than the weather though.  

It’s a pretty miserable outlook this morning, barely a cold NW’ly now if we’re lucky.  We knew GFS would probably roll back, but it’s still annoying even when it does what you expect it too! 

What was the reason? Always wondered why TWO went so quiet? PM me if it's easier as it's off topic.

Cheers, Andy

15 minutes ago, Beanz said:

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

The truth is why does zonality so rarely deliver a polar maritime based zonal setup?  If a zonal flow sets up and aligns NW-SE then polar maritime air can bring snow for favoured areas further north and temperatures are certainly not mild for the majority.  Sadly a zonal setup is almost always of a tropical maritime origin and delivers mild weather of the likes of what has been the case for a large chunk of this month and including these next few days.  It just seems so rare nowadays for a zonal setup to set up favourably to bring air of a polar maritime origin.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

In actual fact winter 2019-20 so far has had similar temperatures to that of 2013-14 and has brought almost as little cold as that winter served up; the only way that winter 2019-20 so far has been less awful is that it has not featured the persistent rain like 2013-14 had.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester

Well victory for the GFS despite what a lot of people were saying yesterday, and moreover, the outlook is just as bad as it's been for the whole winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

The problematic period here is between 240-168hrs. Even the least amplified solution by GFS few days ago now would be the best case scenario. Looking at this morning runs ECMWF has gone from hero to zero now shows the least amplified solution. A classic garden path of this winter.

Capture.PNG

gfs-0-168.png

ECM1-168.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
21 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

In actual fact winter 2019-20 so far has had similar temperatures to that of 2013-14 and has brought almost as little cold as that winter served up; the only way that winter 2019-20 so far has been less awful is that it has not featured the persistent rain like 2013-14 had.

The rainfall has been extreme here in the South east where the benches have been submerged next to river Thames in Datchet!

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
13 minutes ago, DavidS said:

Hey ho, it will no doubt all look different by tomorrow or possibly even this evening. Chins up!

Yes a bartlett high the size of Which has never been seen before knowing our luck just to give us a kick to the undercarriage whilst we're down

Edited by Snowfish2
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Morning peeps

A gloomy start to the day in Walthamstow but it is mild. Expecting some bits of rain and drizzle later.

Well here we are. back to doom on the models this morning. I am no expert but there are some questions that I put down in my yesterday's post.

is Europe going in to a freeze?

is there lack of energy above us?

is there low pressure down south?

has the Atlantic slowed down?

has the PV weakened?

i said that if we could answer yes to the above then there was a chance winter would pay us a visit. The reality is today the answer to the above questions is mostly NO, so it is no surprise that there is little sign of winter in the coming days ( by winter I don't mean fleeting cold days, I mean proper winter with low temperatures and widespread snow) this is what us coldies hearts. Are waiting for. For us to get this all the pieces of jigsaw have to fall in place. My punt yesterday was that the high will sit over us and we will end up with a few days or more of benign weather  and I still think that will be the likely outcome ( unless we have a dramatic turnaround which I never discount) . Will this high be cold  and how long it sticks around for remains to be seen.

I think this setup for next week was a bit hyped up and because us coldies are now looking for any opportunity we fell for this and thought this would be a pattern changer. I have seen these situations many times in the past and through experience with these setups if we do get a northerly incursion 70 percent of the time we get 2 or three days of it with wintry showers in eastern and northern counties and then the high topples over ( unless all the jigsaw is in place and gates open up for an extended cold period).

I know it seems all doom and gloom but we have still February to get through. Patterns can change suddenly so we don't know what the weather will hold but this is reality and no matter how downbeat we get Mr Snow is not going to just come over like that to put a smile on our faces. We may still get lucky in the coming weeks we never know maybe in the next attempt the setup will fall more favourable for us coldies to finally satisfy our winter desire. As always we will stand and wait,

hope you all have a great thursday stay safe.

regards

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