Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

I’m not sure that GP and Catacol only post when cold weather is in the horizon, though.

No but you can bet your bottom dollar they would be posting if anything looked on for February.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No but you can bet your bottom dollar they would be posting if anything looked on for February.

Perhaps but it might just be that they’re busy.  That said, I would very much like to hear their latest thoughts!

[damianslaw]

Can we not litter this thread with 'winters over' comments, and forget winter please, until well at least February is out of the way..

Back to the models, ECM and UKMO continue to show an amplified set up next week, with a mid atlantic high ridging northwards and consequential cold northerly flow, GFS backing away from this scenario with the jet riding over the top of the ridge. Longer term, ECM shows the ridge quickly collapsing back southwards thanks to strong energy in the jetstream and this is the most likely overall direction.

Evolution to a northerly is dependent on how far south the low out of NE USA seaboard digs, to allow for warm air advection.

In the short term, we have another very mild flow developing to mark the end of a very mild January. 

 

Oh and as someone posted - a chart from early march 95, those who think a locked in zonal atlantic onslaught with strong PV will rage and rage and never bring any cold weather.. look at the synoptics through Feb and the change occuring in time for March, after what had been a very mild very wet dominated February, eventually the stored up cold seeped its way here, and we didn't need a NE feed or E feed to produce quite a snowy few days..

Edited January 29, 2020 by damianslaw

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS 18z very different to 12z - Not sure whether for better or not yet though - that is seriously bad modelling at 96 either way.

[IDO]

At T96 GFS moves towards the ECM at that time:

Now developing that cut-off low near the Azores, which is part of the key for a better supported ridge. See if it can move further that way...

[ICE COLD]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 18z very different to 12z - Not sure whether for better or not yet though - that is seriously bad modelling at 96 either way.

Yer was just pondering it myself will it be better or not but it’s definitely different and like you say shocking for day 4 . 

[Allseasons-Si]

Strewth no dis-respect to posters on here but things are getting a little heated in here of which i quiet understand but there is uncertainty in the models earlier on with regards to how the low off the eastern states plays out and until this is resolved then fl is very short

the patience is surely running out on quiet a few of us but there is still plenty of time yet for this winter to salvage and peeps scrapping off the whole of feb(not pointing @feb1991blizzard ) as you are a valued poster but most of you need to calm down a bit,a lot of cold snap/spells can pop up at short notice,so take a back seat for a bit and relax with a bear if that is your preference,it is mine

we know there is Feb and march to go that can produce the goods,that's two whole months still to look forward to,chins up eh.

[shaky]

Hmmm gfs what a shambles AGAIN!!!!moves towards ecm at just 96 hours!

[abruzzi spur]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

relax with a bear if that is your preference,it is mine

Might stop some from being so grizzly.....

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Strewth no dis-respect to posters on here but things are getting a little heated in here of which i quiet understand but there is uncertainty in the models earlier on with regards to how the low off the eastern states plays out and until this is resolved then fl is very short

the patience is surely running out on quiet a few of us but there is still plenty of time yet for this winter to salvage and peeps scrapping off the whole of feb(not pointing @feb1991blizzard ) as you are a valued poster but most of you need to calm down a bit,a lot of cold snap/spells can pop up at short notice,so take a back seat for a bit and relax with a bear if that is your preference,it is mine

we know there is Feb and march to go that can produce the goods,that's two whole months still to look forward to,chins up eh.

All i did was gave a reasonable assessment based on probability and i think it is valid - I do not class 24-48 hours -7c uppers wishbone effect Northerly topplers as proper snow events

[IDO]

...so the GFS gets the extra amplification compared to the 12z but the phasing of the energy different so the heights build further east than the ECM.

A little bit of a correction west and we may get an interesting few days?

 

[shaky]

The differences at 156 hours are laughable !!what a backtrack towards ukmo and ecm!!could improve further still aswell by 00z!!

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hmmm gfs what a shambles AGAIN!!!!moves towards ecm at just 96 hours!

Yes UKMO + ECM at 96 > GFS never wins.

[shaky]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes UKMO + ECM at 96 > GFS never wins.

We seen plenty of times before over the years mate!!if gfs improves further tomorrow and ukmo and ecm still the same then maybe game on?

[IDO]

...lots of intense cold to our east so any HLB would be worth watching:

[nick sussex]

The GFS 18 hrs would have been better if it didn’t faff around deciding what it was going to do with that shortwave in the mid Atlantic .

Anyway at least its an improvement . The changes started early and this highlights why the GFS can’t be trusted with phasing of northern and southern  jets over the USA.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

All i did was gave a reasonable assessment based on probability and i think it is valid - I do not class 24-48 hours -7c uppers wishbone effect Northerly topplers as proper snow events

Yes you did and welcome that but if the low off the eastern states was to deepen and a secondary trough forms to the base of it like the latest gfs is showing then surely it would throw up more WAA ahead of it,this is what i am looking out for

and just as i type that secondary trough elongates further south amplifying it more,good run this

circled here at 132 

which leads to this

 

 

[Nick F]

Oh dear GFS, you really have not covered yourself in glory, total backtrack to a brief northerly then cold high on the 18z.

But will there be more twists and turns in the morning? 

Edited January 29, 2020 by Nick F

[damianslaw]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes UKMO + ECM at 96 > GFS never wins.

Yes note Met Office forecast has held firm with the northerly flow today - and it hasn't been very bullish in calling colder conditions at all this winter.. certainly holding up the UKMO against the GFS. Had a strong feeling of a major backtrack from GFS this evening - how many times does it seem to overeact to any low pressure system moving out of the NE USA seaboard - it always seems too quick in spilling energy eastwards.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes you did and welcome that but if the low off the eastern states was to deepen and a secondary trough forms to the base of it like the latest gfs is showing then surely it would throw up more WAA ahead of it,this is what i am looking out for

and just as i type that secondary trough elongates further south amplifying it more,good run this

circled here at 132 

which leads to this

 

 

Yes - agree on the face of it, i would even go a stage further - knowing the GFS as i do, you wouldn't rule out even a proper high latitude block developing on subsequent runs, but contrary to popular opinion this would have been signposted for a while continuously on ensemble suites, these magic spells do not just pop up in the 96 to 144 range without any signal, could of course be a Northerly but it will be a few marginal flakes down the East coast and some night time frosts most probably.

[Allseasons-Si]

I expect further corrections west in the coming day or two,the 18z is def more amplified

the more amplified the more corrections west ie:- slowing the pattern down

i would even go on to call a scandi block if amplified enough

just my hunch. 

Edited January 29, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[damianslaw]

Gfs loves shortwaves, at 168 hr it shows a developing scandi high then throws in a shortwave to sink it away in less than 24 hrs.. no model at such range can be expected to model shortwavea correctly.. so yes every chance might see a bit more of a sustained high in future runs but probably one that sits more over UK whilst initially ridging ne.. a few days under a cold high possible.

[Rocheydub]

27 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I expect further corrections west in the coming day or two,the 18z is def more amplified

the more amplified the more corrections west ie:- slowing the pattern down

i would even go on to call a scandi block if amplified enough

just my hunch. 

OH YOU TEASE!

Everything is on the table right now post day 7/8. Big scatter.

[markw2680]

There’s going to be plenty more ups and downs in the coming days before it all becomes clearer over the weekend. Will we finally get a taste of winter or will it be the famous garden path walk? We will find out soon enough, I for one think we might actually be in for a little surprise this time after all I think after this shocking winter so far we are due one.

keep up the great posts people and remember this weather hobby makes fools of us all most of the time, we just need to try and enjoy what we all have in common on here

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

9 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

There’s going to be plenty more ups and downs in the coming days before it all becomes clearer over the weekend. Will we finally get a taste of winter or will it be the famous garden path walk? We will find out soon enough, I for one think we might actually be in for a little surprise this time after all I think after this shocking winter so far we are due one.

keep up the great posts people and remember this weather hobby makes fools of us all most of the time, we just need to try and enjoy what we all have in common on here

Lol nice post but if I had a pound for every time someone says:

• Looks like anything can happen!

• However I have a feeling that ____ will happen

• But the weather will do what it wants, so let’s enjoy the ride!

... I would have enough money to enjoy the actual winters and summers that happen everywhere else, all over the world