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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Ecm is better than gfs but we are not exactly looking at any decent cold or snow for even a couple of days which you would expect in a normal winter. 

This winter is done, let's be honest. 

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

spacer.pngECM 0z @ 192

spacer.pngECM 12z @192

ECM 12z is not as good as the ECM 0z. The high collapses and the very cold uppers are lost quickly.

Might be ok for a brief Northerly for those in the East of the UK around t168 ( Feb 5th ) but overall it is a bit disappointing.

There is still hope as ECM is very similar to UKMO and GEM at t144 but the real Boom charts have gone for now.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

RIP 'Winter' 2019-2020

image.thumb.png.6b94031c956c1c7b81efd3f169e3fa39.png

Probably end up with a cold, miserable April

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

There is enough scatter in GEFS at 168 hours to suggest a couple of days a coldish weather is possible (looking across the outputs generally a two day bog standard event is the absolute best on offer IMHO). Overall, longer term the 12z set are very bullish on the existing pattern continuing out to mid month. 

It would be a very brave person who would bet on anything other than a very mild Feb (albeit you might get good odds!! ).

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO is better upstream at day 6 than the ECM .

The ECM at day 7 piles all the energy east , the UKMO won’t do that because its upstream pattern is more amplified at day 6.

The energy is likely to head ne . So the topple should allow a ne flow to develop .

 

In setups like this I always ignore the UKMO at D6 if it is the most amplified. I have been right to do so every time!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
9 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

spacer.pngECM 0z @ 192

spacer.pngECM 12z @192

ECM 12z is not as good as the ECM 0z. The high collapses and the very cold uppers are lost quickly.

Might be ok for a brief Northerly for those in the East of the UK around t168 ( Feb 5th ) but overall it is a bit disappointing.

There is still hope as ECM is very similar to UKMO and GEM at t144 but the real Boom charts have gone for now.

Its never a good idea to be making comparisons from the 0z to the 12z.. Like for like is a much better comparison! I can guarantee you for instance tonight's 18z will be alot different to the GFS 12z.

Here is a comparison from tonight's 12z and yeaterdays 12z for the same time frame. 

ECM0-192.gif

ECM0-216.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, IDO said:

In setups like this I always ignore the UKMO at D6 if it is the most amplified. I have been right to do so every time!

Regardless the ECM has enough time move back to the better solution . At least it didn’t follow the GFS.

I accept the omens aren’t good but there’s a lot going on upstream . It could completely unravel by the morning or we might see something a bit better .

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire

The low over Newfoundland around the 4/5th is the critical area to watch for this high to setup.

EC 0z                                                           EC  12z

image.thumb.png.448b74738bccbbb78222eeab40c56df9.png     image.thumb.png.d3417ed85cfedb38542f637448abbbbf.png   

The difference between 0z and 12z are not too dissimilar, but the 0z produce a secondary low to the south, allowing a sharper ridge to establish upstream. The Euro is starting to downplay that idea and thus reducing the Northerly fetch later on. 

I believe this is a move away from the 0z and more towards the 12z GFS.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
40 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm liking the ECM out to day 6,very much siding with the UKMO, GFS as usual throws up an idea before dropping it when the Euros come onboard...im now expecting the 18z to have a fit and throw out a day after tomorrow situation. Cause has it stands the American model is proving to be about as useful has a Donald Trump climate speech.... 

gfs-0-144.png

UW144-21.gif

ECM1-144.gif

Not quite as useless  but theres only a gnats whisker in it!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Its a double hit for the EUROs tonight V the GFS > usually means game over for GFS!

I think we all know that if there is one model not on board with cold, it usually turns out to be correct. I have no scientific basis for this, but it seems to happen more often than not.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM is a one day cold snap so not sure if I’m that fussed if it’s right anyway ??‍♂️

Yes couldn't care less now - one last chance will another bout of tropical forcing in late Feb bring about a cold spell 7th to 15th March - that's our only last hope now - forget February.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)

No surprises, lets face it apart from the recent couple of weeks GFS does not exactly rank high in the performance stakes compared to its peers when it comes to 10day verification.  

Why is there so much of a following for that particular model in this forum?  

 

Edited by Beanz
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
5 minutes ago, Beanz said:

No surprises, lets face it apart from the recent couple of weeks GFS does not exactly rank high in the performance stakes compared to its peers when it comes to 10day verification.  

Why is there so much of a following for that particular model in this forum?  

 

Well it runs four times per day.id suggest also none of the models get anywhere close at ten days majority of the time .just has a side note if GFS was showing a bitter easterly it wouldn't be shown such distain tbh.

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
11 minutes ago, Beanz said:

No surprises, lets face it apart from the recent couple of weeks GFS does not exactly rank high in the performance stakes compared to its peers when it comes to 10day verification.  

Why is there so much of a following for that particular model in this forum?  

 

Lots of free data - that’s why!  Even though it’s not the greatest NWP model.

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hang on a sec Feb, we are usually getting agitated on this forum about how useless the models are beyond 7 or 8 days! Yet you have just written of a 28 day month that doesn't even start till Saturday!! Quite bizarre...

I don't know but I suspect Feb is making that comment given numerous forecasts indicating a carry on with this winters mobile wnw winds and euro high.check nicks blog out on here.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
20 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hang on a sec Feb, we are usually getting agitated on this forum about how useless the models are beyond 7 or 8 days! Yet you have just written of a 28 day month that doesn't even start till Saturday!! Quite bizarre...

Cold spells do not just happen by pure chance or magic - they happen because of tropical forcing - Even SSW's can be influenced by whats going on in the tropics - why do you think there is no GP or Catacol posting?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Well if that's the case... What is the point in even discussing or viewing the output.. We may as well just write off seasons at a time.. All the signals you mention was in force last year, but no significant cold snap materialised! Are you telling me if certain posters refrain from posting, that a cold snap has gone out of the window! Even the met make a complete pigs ear of it at times. Regardless of background signals in the here and now, for me it's foolhardy to write weeks off at a time. The weather makes mugs of us all the time. Anyway that's me signing off for a while... Hopefully things will improve in time. 

You can still get a dumping from innocuous setups and marginals which is why i stay on here until April but you are much lowering your chances - if you think blocking a Greenland block or Scandinavian block will Occur during at the very minimum the first 3 weeks of Feb and very probably the whole of Feb, then i am afraid you are likely to be disappointed.

5 inches of snow In the West Midlands from this so you never know.

image.thumb.png.538fcf6703c0d11690f322904fdaf17b.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

why do you think there is no GP or Catacol posting?

I’m not sure that GP and Catacol only post when cold weather is in the horizon, though.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Well if that's the case... What is the point in even discussing or viewing the output.. We may as well just write off seasons at a time.. All the signals you mention was in force last year, but no significant cold snap materialised! Are you telling me if certain posters refrain from posting, that a cold snap has gone out of the window! Even the met make a complete pigs ear of it at times. Regardless of background signals in the here and now, for me it's foolhardy to write weeks off at a time. The weather makes mugs of us all the time. Anyway that's me signing off for a while... Hopefully things will improve in time. 

I guess it's about opinions etc with respect to everyone.given the fact that the set up for 8weeks plus have been dominated with that dreaded euro high and strong PV to the nw that a change on the nhp looks unlikely .not to say they won't be the odd day with cold temps but id gamble only transient.anything is possible but a major shift to winter proper"which is what folk want"looks a big ask imo

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