Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[Methuselah]

21 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Yes looks like gfs and gem are are completely wrong again, looking to see if the ecm continues to side with ukmo both models always  ahead of gem and gfs in the verification stats, remember. Gfs not even in the top three sometimes, always tries to flatten the pattern, most biased of any model. 

Not forgetting, of course, that the actual weather has been quite biased too, this winter?

I'm glad snow isn't the only kind of weather I enjoy:

    

Edited January 29, 2020 by General Cluster

[Dean E]

GFS 12z Should not be discarded IMO, many times over the past few years it has latched onto a new idea and inevitably all other models catch up. 

The reason I can see that the 12z is going for the high building to our south is due to the amplification response due to the deep low forming over Newfoundland. The GFS allows the low to move further East into the North Atlantic, not allowing some ridging moving up to Iceland. 

The EC 0z builds a ridge up into the Icelandic region, thus allowing the centre to build out west of Ireland, delivering a Northerly. UKMO and GEM also follow this in the same way.

Now the GFS does like to go 'default' and blow up anything in the Atlantic and most of the time it never occurs, but with these type of events, the GFS track record sometimes proves to be correct.

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by Dean E

[nick sussex]

The GEFS are a mess towards the 5 and 6 th February  with a huge spread in 850 values .

 

[winterof79]

32 minutes ago, swfc said:

Sadly barring a brief cold blast "maybe" nothing on the nhp currently looks able to sustain any real cold.i saw a sleet shower yesterday so my life is complete for this winter.just to note gem is rank at 6-7days

Criky take a break from the sarcasm and post a chart for once

Edited January 29, 2020 by winterof79

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GEFS are a mess towards the 5 and 6 th February  with a huge spread in 850 values .

 

Problem is Nick that spread is artificially inflated by just 2 members bringing in the cold snap we were hoping for - 2/20 is a 10% chance.

[Geordiesnow]

As ever the fine balancing acts when it comes to cold set ups is showing nicely on recent runs. I don't think we are in for a huge blast of cold air as the hints do seem even if a ridge does occur, it will collapse towards the UK but still too early to say. The PV over the pole and Greenland looks really strong mind, it's a really old battle getting much WAA at higher latitudes. 

[Dancerwithwings]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GEFS are a mess towards the 5 and 6 th February  with a huge spread in 850 values .

 

Yes the coldest member 6 looks very similar to the UKMO/ECM

[jules216]

Another let down is beckoning I am afraid,not only for UK but whole of Europe, If lucky I might scrape 4 days of temperatures around the long term mean here in central Europe and then back to usual winter fare, inversion cold will not be as much of an issie as during early January,personaly if GEFS verify I be looking forward to spring by mid February, at least I can say I ve got 3 days of snowfall and few weeks of lying snow which is very poor for here

Edited January 29, 2020 by jules216
spelling

[nick sussex]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Problem is Nick that spread is artificially inflated by just 2 members bringing in the cold snap we were hoping for - 2/20 is a 10% chance.

That’s two more than was on the 06 hrs run ! We’re making progress . 

Even if the ECM doesn’t drop the baton later , we would need the GFS op to move on the 18 hrs . Given the timeframes involved that would be a concern if it keeps dishing out flat solutions .

The SREF for the USA which is their mesoscale short range ensemble forecast system which goes upto T87 hours has 6 different clusters in relation to the ne USA low position . 

Edited January 29, 2020 by nick sussex

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That’s two more than was on the 06 hrs run ! We’re making progress . 

Even if the ECM doesn’t drop the baton later , we would need the GFS op to move on the 18 hrs . Given the timeframes involved that would be a concern if it keep dishing out flat solutions .

spot on! !^^^

 

@summed up

[LRD]

So, UKMO shows a 2-day toppler

And GFS shows nothing apart from rain, rain, rain

[swfc]

20 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

 

Criky take a break from the sarcasm and post a chart for once

All the charts are available on metiociel or netweather.after this winter I find sarcasm more appropriate  than hopecasting or straw clutching!!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

43 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Horrific GFS, little more to be said. 

There is as a lot of us always want the UKMO onside for cold.  It has now got to show at t144 what GFS was showing 36 hrs ago at t192.  Let’s see what happens here.....I suspect it’ll flatten as it gets to t72-96

 

BFTP

[Nick F]

Clutching straws for the 12z EC to stay firm on the more amplified pattern over the Atlantic early next week (we'll see soon), an interesting forecast discussion from the NWS Portland, Maine office with regards to the coastal storm hesding NE off the Atlantic coast of New England and Canadian Maritimes:

**Low confidence potential coastal system late this weekend**

Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show the development of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday tracking northeastward towards Nova Scotia Sunday. Recent runs of deterministic guidance suggest that the track of this system will be slightly too far to our east to bring significant impacts. Model ensembles, especially the ECMWF, do show enough members tracking close enough to our area to warrant careful consideration of this system. As mentioned in previous discussions there remains uncertainty in the evolution and track of this system due to multiple pieces of energy moving through the East Coast trough Saturday. The question is whether these pieces of energy can phase at the right time to form a stronger system closer to our area. Another factor to consider is upstream blocking as the upper level pattern remains fairly progressive with the trough quickly moving offshore with heights building over the East Coast starting Monday. Model ensembles show a neutral NAO trending to a slightly -NAO over the next few days with a stronger -NAO leading to more blocking and possibly a closer storm track. Models also show an upper low near Newfoundland Saturday morning. If this upper low can linger into Sunday providing an area of confluence, a more westward storm track is also possible. Overall there a lot of moving parts to this system with current trends favoring a near miss. Will continue to monitor as this system has been visible for several days now and it is still several days from when we could see impacts from this system.

National Weather Service Text Product Display

FORECAST.WEATHER.GOV

 

[The Northern Ramper]

16 minutes ago, LRD said:

So, UKMO shows a 2-day toppler

And GFS shows nothing apart from rain, rain, rain

Boooooom!!!!!

 

Two days

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Clutching straws for the 12z EC to stay firm on the more amplified pattern over the Atlantic early next week (we'll see soon), an interesting forecast discussion from the NWS Portland, Maine office with regards to the coastal storm hesding NE off the Atlantic coast of New England and Canadian Maritimes:

**Low confidence potential coastal system late this weekend**

Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show the development of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday tracking northeastward towards Nova Scotia Sunday. Recent runs of deterministic guidance suggest that the track of this system will be slightly too far to our east to bring significant impacts. Model ensembles, especially the ECMWF, do show enough members tracking close enough to our area to warrant careful consideration of this system. As mentioned in previous discussions there remains uncertainty in the evolution and track of this system due to multiple pieces of energy moving through the East Coast trough Saturday. The question is whether these pieces of energy can phase at the right time to form a stronger system closer to our area. Another factor to consider is upstream blocking as the upper level pattern remains fairly progressive with the trough quickly moving offshore with heights building over the East Coast starting Monday. Model ensembles show a neutral NAO trending to a slightly -NAO over the next few days with a stronger -NAO leading to more blocking and possibly a closer storm track. Models also show an upper low near Newfoundland Saturday morning. If this upper low can linger into Sunday providing an area of confluence, a more westward storm track is also possible. Overall there a lot of moving parts to this system with current trends favoring a near miss. Will continue to monitor as this system has been visible for several days now and it is still several days from when we could see impacts from this system.

National Weather Service Text Product Display

FORECAST.WEATHER.GOV

 

I take it this is the storm referred Nick?

Edited January 29, 2020 by knocker

[jules216]

GFS vs EC 

[SMU]

Its a double hit for the EUROs tonight V the GFS > usually means game over for GFS!

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its a double hit for the EUROs tonight V the GFS > usually means game over for GFS!

Uppers at 144 - very short window for snow chances ,not sure if dews are negative at this stage but the high is going to collapse thereafter.

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by northwestsnow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm liking the ECM out to day 6,very much siding with the UKMO, GFS as usual throws up an idea before dropping it when the Euros come onboard...im now expecting the 18z to have a fit and throw out a day after tomorrow situation. Cause has it stands the American model is proving to be about as useful has a Donald Trump climate speech.... 

[markw2680]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its a double hit for the EUROs tonight V the GFS > usually means game over for GFS!

I’d definitely say ec looks better early on compared to gfs 

[swfc]

EC 12 looks dry and cool.would say it's not as good as the 0z at 168 hrs.dry will do I guess

Edited January 29, 2020 by swfc

[shaky]

Absolutely identical ukmo and ecm this evening!!gfs out on its own!!lonely bugger!!still flattens out afterwards so dont make a difference lol!!

[IDO]

Just now, swfc said:

EC 12 looks dry and cool.would say it's not as good as the oz.dry will do I guess

Yes, moving as the GFS did, with being more progressive with the collapse of the ridge and the push east of the coldest uppers. Hopefully it does not continue in the next few run with that trend as the GFS did:

12z.0z>

 

[igloo]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

EC 12 looks dry and cool.would say it's not as good as the oz.dry will do I guess

slowly but surely it getting flatter with each run.looks like it will be a halfway house between the GFS.as long as the HP doesn't sink to Europe there is still hope.