Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Cold prospects??? Questions today are a plenty

1) will the 12gfs upgrade and bring the cold back? 

2)will the 12zgfs downgrade even more and show more mild? 

3)will the ecm follow the gfs with its downgrade of cold? 

4)will the ecm stick to its guns and show a cold northerly ? 

I will always trust the ECM before the gfs but!!!!!!!!!! 

Will I be correct????? 

All shall be revealed shortly ha ha. 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

4 hours ago, E17boy said:

Morning peeps

Hope everyone is well, just reached Milton Keynes from East London. A bright crisp morning with some frost around.

So another week since I last posted and I thought I come back today and see where we are. After the excitement in here yesterday seems as if the output has quetened down the mood again. Alas it's beginning to get a norm now with the models makes you think we live in the Bermuda Triangle or something 10 or a16 day Stella charts that seem to then mysteriously disappear and bring back doom and gloom in the forum. 

So where are we heading, to be honest as mentioned in my last post I have blocked the rest of this winter off so to avoid disappointment and if we do get cold it will be a big bonus. I think a lot of hype has been made on next weeks high pressure alas we seen it so many times before and we still fall into that trap bless the hearts of us coldies. Looks as if we may see a brief cold incursion but I can't see any deep freeze yet. I think there is too much energy for the poor high to float up where we want it. So ending up with dry benign conditions would be my call. However these patterns can easily change and who knows might go for our good but my gut feeling tells me no not yet.

couple of questions to think about

is Europe going into the freeze?

is there less energy north?

is there low pressure down south?

has the Atlantic slowed down?

has the PV weakened?

if we can answer yes to the above then there is a chance that winter will pay us a visit. 

Our search continues but time is not going to be our friend and spring will be on the horizon, something dramatic has to come for our cries now.

Who knows we may strike it lucky. If not don't get yourselves down we will be back here in 9 months again and our search will continue.

wishing you all a great day 

regards

Excellent post

[Duane S.]

I'm not sure I've ever seen the +6 SD mark hit, even as a forecast...

Incredible, even if probably very unlikely.

It's gonna break eventually, and it could be good when it does. Question is are we talking late Feb or into April?

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I'm not sure I've ever seen the +6 SD mark hit, even as a forecast...

Incredible, even if probably very unlikely.

It's gonna break eventually, and it could be good when it does. Question is are we talking late Feb or into April?

Yes the outpouring of record cold from the polar fields, eventually, may bring some very late surprises. 

[mb018538]

23 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I'm not sure I've ever seen the +6 SD mark hit, even as a forecast...

Incredible, even if probably very unlikely.

It's gonna break eventually, and it could be good when it does. Question is are we talking late Feb or into April?

With charts like this showing up for mid February, you can understand where some of the +5/+6 sigma AO forecasts are coming from. Looks more like a November/December chart than mid feb..

[stodge]

I agree those looking for cold to mid February are going to be disappointed.

Those looking at the end of the month - well, perhaps but a setback or two in the past 24 hours especially with regard to strat warming.

I do think March will surprise on the cold side - particularly around mid month as the TPV relents but it's very early days.

[DavidS]

30 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I'm not sure I've ever seen the +6 SD mark hit, even as a forecast...

Incredible, even if probably very unlikely.

It's gonna break eventually, and it could be good when it does. Question is are we talking late Feb or into April?

What is also interesting is the scatter. Is this model uncertainty influenced by the warming in the strat?

[Johnp]

UKMO keeping the amplification dream alive

[shaky]

Ukmo sticks to its guns!!in fact gfs is slightly more amplified earlier on aswell!!if ecm is the same as this mornings 00z run then i expect gfs to slowly back down with each run

[Eskimo]

It all rests on the mighty GEM. If the GEM fires high pressure up to the pole then I'd say it's game on and a near-certainty.  

Edited January 29, 2020 by PerfectStorm

[tight isobar]

already conflicting  signals via the 12th ops. ..with ridging /pressure points. ..

an-interesting  ecm  this eve. ..with its amplifier  keeness! !

Edited January 29, 2020 by tight isobar

[swfc]

12zgfs can't rid itself of that insipid PV to the NNW!!!maybe a short blast of cold on the ukmo but the PV is relentless 

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

already conflicting  sigoals via the 12th ops. ..with ridging /pressure points. ..

an-interesting  ecm  this eve. ..with its amplifier  keeness! !

What pressure points TI ??? Look at the PV pal it's rock solid

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

What pressure points TI ??? Look at the PV pal it's rock solid

Desperation and/or despair probably. 

[nick sussex]

FI begins at day 4 upstream .

You can see the differences between the GFS and UKMO in how they handle the ne USA low .

By day 5 the GFS is taking the energy east and the UKMO ne .

Day 6 the same , even if the ridge topples on the UKMO by day 7 the energy will still be moving ne so you’re likely to get the ridge toppling in the same direction with a ne flow into the UK .

The GEM is upto T138 hrs , big improvement on the 00hrs run.

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by nick sussex

[swfc]

23 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

It all rests on the mighty GEM. If the GEM fires high pressure up to the pole then I'd say it's game on and a near-certainty.  

Yes the mighty gem will come to the rescue !!! Possibly as entertaining as the other models atm

[Paul]

Interesting blog from Nick:

Rumours Of A Sudden Stratospheric Warming & Model Mayhem For Next Week - Blog by Nick Finnis

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Nick's latest blog looks at the rumours floating around of a major SSW in February. Also, before then, the models are in disagreement for next week over a potential cold northerly.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

The GEM is similar to the UKMO

the gfs looks pants but should we discard it because it doesn't show winter Nirvana!

Edited January 29, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Methuselah]

It's interesting that the warm air (+5C T850s) is pushing hard up to the cold air (-5C)...Could that be what's causing the tPV to tighten...Or, at least, not to collapse as fast as expected?

    

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by General Cluster

[swfc]

13 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The GEM is similar to the UKMO

the gfs looks pants but should we discard it because it doesn't show winter Nirvana!

Sadly barring a brief cold blast "maybe" nothing on the nhp currently looks able to sustain any real cold.i saw a sleet shower yesterday so my life is complete for this winter.just to note gem is rank at 6-7days

Edited January 29, 2020 by swfc

[IDO]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The GEM is similar to the UKMO

It also shows, as did the ECM, that this is a brief ridge and topple with unexceptional cold uppers and rather underwhelming. It is apparent the tPV will prevent any nascent ridge from developing into a high-lat block to our north; GEM:

T144>T168>

FWIW, as mentioned on the GFS 06z, the Pacific high seemingly the main mid-lat feature in the NH so unlikely UK will be seeing settled weather after D8:

 

[Jeremy Shockey]

UKMO 12z @144

Much improved from the UKMO 12z. Decent amplification. Would be interesting to see the day 7 chart later to see if the ridge collapses. ( and where it collapses to ) A Northerly still likely , just a shame that the high is not slightly further West.  ( GEM  12z similar for what it is worth )

If the ECM 12z looks anything like the ECM 0z i will be happy.

[MikeC53]

Horrific GFS, little more to be said. 

[SLEETY]

Yes looks like gfs and gem are are completely wrong again, looking to see if the ecm continues to side with ukmo both models always  ahead of gem and gfs in the verification stats, remember. Gfs not even in the top three sometimes, always tries to flatten the pattern, most biased of any model. 

[IDO]

7 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

UKMO 12z @144

Much improved from the UKMO 12z. Decent amplification. Would be interesting to see the day 7 chart later to see if the ridge collapses. ( and where it collapses to ) A Northerly still likely , just a shame that the high is not slightly further West.  ( GEM  12z similar for what it is worth )

If the ECM 12z looks anything like the ECM 0z i will be happy.

You can see at T120 the parallax:

UKMO>GFS>

Around the Azores the UKMO has an upper and surface low (as does the ECM) that channels the warmth more vertically aligned, building the ridge and at D6 sustains that temporarily as a building block via that feature. The GFS sinks that upper-low, and this prevents the ridge from building. We have seen this a few times this winter, some verify and some do not, so not sure who has that feature modelled correctly? ECM may assist with that...