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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

I know that MJO phases 4-5 are poor for cold weather in the UK, which I would think coupled with a colder than average stratosphere contributed to the mild weather that has been seen for a large part of this month.  If MJO is in the COD I would not expect it to have a big impact on the UK's weather; correct me if I am wrong?

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

ECM 00z mean at D7 and ens. Looks likely to be a brief cold shot from the north then the high topples over us and things flatten out pretty quickly. 12z runs should put this to bed either way.

EDM1-168.thumb.gif.5fdc60f6f5e15bd0ee53caf74505f98e.gifEDM0-168.thumb.gif.733aa3932e403cf3e1f9f1637f02b983.gif

graphe_ens3.thumb.png.a252167db2ace1e4058c1140c0d7d473.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Sod that, my cat just crapped on my keyboard! He must have learned how to read weather-charts too!:shok:

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

What a stinker of a winter we are having. Looks like end of Feb now for anything decent and by then the sun is gaining strength #toysoutofpram 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

What a stinker of a winter we are having. Looks like end of Feb now for anything decent and by then the sun is gaining strength #toysoutofpram 

Yes the days are getting longer now and the sun stronger, need the cold to dig in in the first two weeks of Feb ideally if we want a decent winter spell of weather. By late February something special like the easterly blasts of two years ago are required to produce winter wonderland scenes in lowland Britain, although on higher ground in the north it's a different matter entirely.

Interesting that we have more amplification on the icon 06z.

 

 

iconnh-0-120.png

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Morning peeps

Hope everyone is well, just reached Milton Keynes from East London. A bright crisp morning with some frost around.

So another week since I last posted and I thought I come back today and see where we are. After the excitement in here yesterday seems as if the output has quetened down the mood again. Alas it's beginning to get a norm now with the models makes you think we live in the Bermuda Triangle or something 10 or a16 day Stella charts that seem to then mysteriously disappear and bring back doom and gloom in the forum. 

So where are we heading, to be honest as mentioned in my last post I have blocked the rest of this winter off so to avoid disappointment and if we do get cold it will be a big bonus. I think a lot of hype has been made on next weeks high pressure alas we seen it so many times before and we still fall into that trap bless the hearts of us coldies. Looks as if we may see a brief cold incursion but I can't see any deep freeze yet. I think there is too much energy for the poor high to float up where we want it. So ending up with dry benign conditions would be my call. However these patterns can easily change and who knows might go for our good but my gut feeling tells me no not yet.

couple of questions to think about

is Europe going into the freeze?

is there less energy north?

is there low pressure down south?

has the Atlantic slowed down?

has the PV weakened?

if we can answer yes to the above then there is a chance that winter will pay us a visit. 

Our search continues but time is not going to be our friend and spring will be on the horizon, something dramatic has to come for our cries now.

Who knows we may strike it lucky. If not don't get yourselves down we will be back here in 9 months again and our search will continue.

wishing you all a great day 

regards

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Be I retesting to see where this GFS goes, I’m putting money on it going back to showing a decent 2-4 day cold spell from the north, METO are on board and they are usually spot on in the medium range!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester

Dreadful stuff this morning, we can't even get a toppler and with bad news from the Strat and the METO continuing with the mild Feb theme, it looks time to draw stumps on this shocker of a winter. Has there been any update from GP ?

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
13 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Hi ECMWF

Many thanks for bringing this to our attention. I agree that you shouldn’t be getting blamed when your long range charts don’t verify. We’ll have to see what our team can do it it carries on. After all, it’s not your fault they don’t always happen. You can only do your very best.

DRL

PS: It’s also worth remembering guys that even if some of the outlooks might seem grim at the moment, that it might be best to keep some of those teddy bears in the pram for now. These poor teddies must get so much torture from all the times they get chucked out....

Yes. My Teddy looks a sorrowful sight... . So much so it barely resembles one and I'd be hard pushed to describe what it might look like so I'll leave it there....... 

Edited by Snowfish2
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Still big differences on the GFS 06z compared to ECM upstream:

ECM>ECE1-120.thumb.gif.539792b0f77e461e161dd47f646b26f9.gifGFS>gfseu-0-114.thumb.png.e8ee94e0f61015d9a52b51ac641d872b.png

Can the GFS save it from this early lower amplification? Very subtle differences.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

GFS not budging. Here’s day 5 for comparison. ECM so much better with the ridge . Is it still the same old story with the gfs being to flat ? Or will it be middle ground scenario? 

F2C381B9-D7F7-4A49-9C00-02473E03367C.png

B1116B7A-9C68-49E8-BF4B-501C1CC202B3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

...the GFS 06z continues to move in the wrong direction and if it keeps going, it will be a flat westerly flow by T0!

0z2063611185_gfseu-0-162(1).thumb.png.d3516e886a456f1af88098553655344e.png>6z:gfseu-0-156.thumb.png.f391e688a27b8cae9f80c1f8270b5578.png

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
9 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Yet when the icon was going cold earlier in the season and the other models were not, it proved to be completely wrong, so maybe it and the gfs are completely wrong in  deciding the Northerly won't happen, still too far yet anyway to know either way. 

Yeah, that is a good point.  

Be interesting to see what some of these models continue to churn out! Can hope the likes of the ICON etc are being a little too flat with the pattern still.

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

If a strong jet and Atlantic driven weather is your thing then you'll enjoy the whole of next week. 

image.thumb.png.1da820c03cae2ad59a7a2cdc1de7283c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Good consistency with the last two GFS runs at D10:

0z>gfseu-0-264.thumb.png.40f55ec38ae67b8c843cd56e6d4e86b5.png06z>gfseu-0-258.thumb.png.6fe66a0eb73f7303ae0487ec5b579f3b.png

Looks like wedges of heights at high-lat on the opposite side of the NH means that the tPV main vortex pushed to the NW of the UK. So the weight of this looks like giving us a NW>SE flow so NW'ly flow at times. Looks like zonal so mini-waves meaning the cold flow isn't sustained, ebbs and flows:

gfsnh-0-282.thumb.png.685a57cdbf2ae0fb8fd3fde5f654ec48.png

It looks like the Pacific is going to be the dominant NH mid-lat high in FI which is poor for UK high-lat blocking. For the SE, surface conditions: likely average temps with rain and wind, and as others have said an Autumnal synoptic. Pretty rubbish run down here for the next 16-days sadly.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Sadly the extended ECM looks a lot like the GFS today..

image.thumb.png.7353e118a1e01aae6c4d0c29a872967a.pngimage.thumb.png.a2919d583d8553689e824083b6c39309.png

Deep Atlantic trough looks like returning as we head into February, with further strong wind and rain. The fat lady ain't singing yet, but she's definitely warming up those vocal chords. If we don't get any amplification in the next week and it goes flat again, I'm done with this winter.
 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

00z EC wasn't exactly an outlier for London surface temp next week, certainly plenty of similarly cold members clustered with it, plenty of spread after the 5th. I think the GEFS may well be greatly affected early on by the knock on effects of that winter storm track off eastern US and E Canada late weekend/early next week as to where members go thereafter, certainly they aren't buying amplification on the whole.

ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.cf7fabe0a3eb899158940411bf0ed5bd.gif

We await our fate from the 12z runs, if EC jumps ship in favour of the flatter pattern of the other models for early-mid next week, then the Fat Lady will sing. 

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Its not just the upstream trough which is an issue but the handling of low pressure near the UK and how low heights over Arctic Canada effect the former  as they get pushed south in response to the high building in from the Pacific .

So far this morning and this might seem like straw clutching ! 

We’ve had 4 06 hrs outputs .

The GFS actually started a bit more amplified over eastern Canada but then went downhill .

The ICON has increased in amplitude upto day 5 . It was this model which first ditched any decent ridge . Our old favourite the NAVGEM has also improved from its 00hrs run.

The JMA at T84hrs also looks okay at that point .

So it’s a mixed picture . I think the 12 hrs runs will decide the issue given the timeframes involved .

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

One streak that we are not going to end this winter is the +NAO in Dec/Feb period. The reliance on NAO for low level snow in UK is clear to see

nao.sprd2.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Well, there we go:

image.thumb.png.8ff3c8a756b32f7f8ef7f8c0b39a48bc.png

Pretty much all of the cold runs gone, and barring a small dip below average on the 4th Feb, we're back above average out to mid-month, with a continuation of what we've had all winter. Going to take an almighty swing back in subsequent runs to pull this one out. The usual model adage of exercising caution until firm agreement shows has been once again highlighted. We never got any better than around 50/50 support, and that ain't enough.
 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Regarding the GEFS which have hit the buffers since yesterday afternoon re cold outcomes .

It really depends how many have the correct solution upstream re the ne USA low .

The subject of the pattern in the eastern USA was discussed in the overnight extended forecast discussion from NCEP .

There are issues across the models regarding phasing and timing  of northern and southern arms of the jet and whether the low travels ne well offshore  or more along the coast .

The latter  would suggest a more amplified pattern v the former which is the more flat solution .

Historically the ECM does better with phasing v the GFS.

Still waiting for the morning update USA time , overnight NCEP sided with last evenings 12hrs ECM op for the eastern USA days 3 and 4 .And after that more weight for the ECM with a smaller input from the GFS.

 

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