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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I was at peace with this winter being a dud back in November. I've not been stressed about a lack of cold/snow and acceptance of it was really the best thing I could have done.

As an aside, I think we may see the odd polar north westerly incursion through mid-late Feb and maybe into March. How potent these will be though is open to debate...

Yes - i should have mentioned that i don't give up in March and you never know - a proper strat warming could occur late feb and propogate quickly - all i want is a dumping - don't care if its gone in 2 days.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
23 minutes ago, snowray said:

I'm always very weary of the ICON, I have no idea why some members rubbish it, in fact it's been spot on quite a few times in the past, maybe people just have short memories.

From what I remember, the ICON appeared to do well at detecting that monster Easterly in late February 2018. There may have been one or two other models who quickly picked up on that Easterly, although I think the ICON was one of the most consistent models with that  setup.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
14 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

From what I remember, the ICON appeared to do well at detecting that monster Easterly in late February 2018. There may have been one or two other models who quickly picked up on that Easterly, although I think the ICON was one of the most consistent models with that  setup.

the German  model is held in high regard. ..but as a 'nowcast model'..within 96 hrs. ..

it goes in to the  bin bags after that !!

and even the dustmen shy away! !!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
38 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

the German  model is held in high regard. ..but as a 'nowcast model'..within 96 hrs. ..

it goes in to the  bin bags after that !!

and even the dustmen shy away! !!

Garbage - game over!

image.thumb.png.4ae6e0fa81ffa6222b223ab8c98e8fd1.png

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
56 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

From what I remember, the ICON appeared to do well at detecting that monster Easterly in late February 2018. There may have been one or two other models who quickly picked up on that Easterly, although I think the ICON was one of the most consistent models with that  setup.

Yet when the icon was going cold earlier in the season and the other models were not, it proved to be completely wrong, so maybe it and the gfs are completely wrong in  deciding the Northerly won't happen, still too far yet anyway to know either way. 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

My honest opinion is the 18z gfs is wrong and I think it's been on the shots this evening way too many to be honest. I think we will get a ecmf type evolution with reload after reload and hopefully the weather gods will come together for us coldies and give us a good dumping. Just wanted to laugh at the 18z run or was it cry. Roll on the morning runs and let's bring back the cold flow. Night all

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

When the GFS op is such a cold outlier it’s hardly a surprise for it to fall back in line with other GEFS members in subsequent runs. The cold charts were well in lala land on the 12z run.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

Game over on the GFS 0z run as well with too much energy spilling South of Greenland instead of going more up the western flank.

This part of the world seems to be poorly modelled in lala land so should always be wary of charts > 96t!

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Same as what happened a couple of weeks ago when a northerly showed for a couple of runs. 

You can't polish a turd and this winter is an elephant sized one!

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Well so much for that! As has been the case all winter, unless someone pops the azores high a couple of viagra its just not happpening!

Quite ironic that in desperate times in the past, the Icon and Gem get brought out the closet, yet no one gave them any credance yesterday when they were going against the northerly.

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Hi DRL

Further to our earlier conversation it has come to my attention that peeps are frequently using my day nine and ten output and then blaming me when they quickly fail to verify. This practice is tantamount to abuse and needs to stop with immediate effect

Regards

ECMWF

Would be better if they just ran it to 168 like the UKMO - all thre models struggle after day 5/6.

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

ECM still showing decent mid Atlantic amplification in the medium range!  Not a done deal yet as most other models have backed off but reassuring that the gold standard not budging.

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

ECM still showing decent mid Atlantic amplification in the medium range!  Not a done deal yet as most other models have backed off but reassuring that the gold standard not budging.

The UKMO also looks better at t144 with the ridge.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Som need to get a new hobby as its taking over your minds.... 

Nice charts still and amplification still on the tableScreenshot_20200129_071017_com.android.gallery3d.thumb.jpg.d12948aaa37cd34c6d7fdad3b7e57fc3.jpg

Screenshot_20200129_070951_com.android.gallery3d.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Yes, i think a certain individual spends his life on here! Anyway, better ecm after the poor couple of gfs runs...im guessing this will end up a half way house again...expecting slight improvements on the gfs today..

 

ECMOPEU00_168_1-4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
13 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Som need to get a new hobby as its taking over your minds.... 

Nice charts still and amplification still on the tableScreenshot_20200129_071017_com.android.gallery3d.thumb.jpg.d12948aaa37cd34c6d7fdad3b7e57fc3.jpg

Screenshot_20200129_070951_com.android.gallery3d.jpg

Amplification still on the table yes but not unfortunately to the extent that most people on here are seeking as the whole thing predictably looks like flattening out again in the latter frames. Pm incursions probably the best one can hope for going forward as a whole. 

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Don’t you just love it , the first post you read when you get out of bed is game over! How can it be game over ? We was never in the game lol. 
I’m pretty sure there will be many more twists and turns yet regarding next week so relax a little

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
39 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The divergence between the models post day 6, 00z EC vs GFS, UKMO, GEM, ICON - appears to be how they handle the deepening winter storm off the east coast of US and Canada over the weekend and into next week. EC drives the deep low north up through the Labrador Sea towards Baffin Bay, driving WAA north over the Atlantic towards Greenland and Iceland building a strong mid-Atlantic ridge. Whilst the other models have the low moving NE towards tip of Greenland keeping the upper flow across the N Atlantic a lot flatter.

EC T168

ECMOPNH00_168_1.thumb.png.44361e76073280cf4bb17404502ddc2e.png

GFS T168

GFSOPNH00_168_1.thumb.png.82e89b65b8bef2e12d6fca48c0b41401.png

GEM T168

GEMOPNH00_168_1.thumb.png.99acd59c288d5542741791f387611deb.png

US forecasters yesterday placing a lot of uncertainty over the storm developing near the east coast, due to how a shortwave trough in the upper flow coming in off the Pacific deepens as it moves across the US and interacts with frontal boundary over the eastern US. And whether this shortwave trough lifts north or northeast over eastern Canada and upper flow amplifies over the NW Atlantic may impact our fortunes early next week.

EPS moves the low north too one would expect GFS to climb down to ECM later today.

6FDAAAC6-4CD5-416E-A9CF-9CBEF06CF246.thumb.png.dfe8ed7c63a54a9af1544d36ad37e4d5.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
16 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Don’t you just love it , the first post you read when you get out of bed is game over! How can it be game over ? We was never in the game lol. 
I’m pretty sure there will be many more twists and turns yet regarding next week so relax a little

Compared to the GEM the GFS would be welcome. Just zonal on the GEM leading to a HP building to our south and at D10 ending:

854019765_gemeu-0-240(2).thumb.png.f1d9c4450e74c74d8ace8d3714256a36.pnggemeu-1-240.thumb.png.78a2a96ea0a823a6631428c42702d6bd.png

It is clear the models are struggling and although there is a little time for it to show colder weather, there is also time to show early Spring. So being optimistic is one thing, but from a realist perspective, the trend is not good and the GEFS mean has never been on board, and on the 0z barely a ripple from that feature:

anim_vcc3.gif

ECM op a bit more amplified as we have come to expect. Both means suggest it is a topple giving a brief colder flow and by D10 back to the norm:

1431888970_gens-21-1-240(1).thumb.png.29914fa37b07830b7dd8452fd8addd5f.pngEDM1-240.thumb.gif.17a0dd97a0d7edc55fee4c6b6e61dc77.gif

The tPV in FI looking as strong as ever with no sign of mid or high-lat blocking:

D16:1330608191_gensnh-21-1-384(7).thumb.png.7dbb2efa05d0381728b28d4519df40b3.png

The good looking charts recently may have been the algorithms taking the GFS strat charts too seriously and with no sign of this strat warming being a killer blow, it looks like another cool Spring if an SSW is a player. The MJO is forecast to spend most of the next 14-days in the COD at low amplitude and maybe not significant bearing in mind at high amplitude it could not break the chains of the underlying westerly flow.

So the new GFS, based on the ECM giving us false dawns in FI when the old GFS mean would have nothing of it. A bit of a pain for good forecasting if it fails like it has this winter especially with the ensembles switching to the new system soon?

Maybe 24h of models to get the finality of this brief potential colder shot...

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

We have seen this so many times before in the past. GFS picks up on a trend while the others seem uninterested, they finally start sniffing around something similar to the GFS only for the GFS to then drop it the next run only to come back in line a few runs later. might not happen this time round but it wouldnt be a big shock if it did.

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