Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[snowray]

The difference at D9 is mind boggling!

If the models can only accurately predict mild at D8/9 then whats the point, after all these years of model watching it just seems as useless as ever.

Edited January 28, 2020 by snowray

[Anthony Burden]

Major backing off of a cold to very cold northerly blast by GFS 18 z following more an ECM high pressure flattened 

out over U.K. Still excitement for a short while.

[tight isobar]

note. .then polar energy. ..into the eastern  quad -polar vortex. ...

as drain  begins! !!!

 

@180 

[PiscesStar]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

note. .then polar energy. ..into the eastern  quad -polar vortex. ...

as drain  begins! !!!

 

@180 

What does that mean please? 

[tight isobar]

Just now, Snowfish2 said:

What does that mean please? 

have a look at this crossroad  snap..

and see if you can decipher the issue. .with model miss diagnosis. ..

no trick questions. .and no patronising. .

if-you can't. ...I'll  explain  !

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

18z is running with the ICON, now would you believe it! 

It’s always a concern when one of the smaller models keeps churning out flatter solutions . And these are showing up within T120hrs . 

One run isn’t terrible but since yesterday the ICON isn’t interested and it’s always at the back of your mind why it’s keeping on that track.

The upstream pattern is quite complex and small changes make a big impact on the troughing which in turn effects how far north the ridge goes .

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

the pv  is as desperate  as a love islander  for notified. ..

 I've got a text! - PV continues to ruin winter , but a new islander strat warming will soon enter the villa will his effects be strong enough for the UK to see colder weather? stay tuned and find out. 

[markw2680]

Too much over analysing on every run, there will be big swings in the model run to run as we all know. We are talking about stuff for next week and it’s only Tuesday! Things for Early next week won’t begin to firm up until Friday and Saturday at the earliest. We no the uk usually ends up with the crap charts verify but every now and then we strike it lucky. I’m sure things will all look a lot different come the morning runs for good or bad

[Allseasons-Si]

Just taking the context of the gefs ens here from the 12z suit,the percentage is huge in regards of a cold snap circled in black

stamps at 168 and the mean mostly all show a ridge in the Atlantic

now if there is a serious backtrack from the 18z gfs,it's going to be huge.

 

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Too much over analysing on every run, there will be big swings in the model run to run as we all know. We are talking about stuff for next week and it’s only Tuesday! Things for Early next week won’t begin to firm up until Friday and Saturday at the earliest. We no the uk usually ends up with the crap charts verify but every now and then we strike it lucky. I’m sure things will all look a lot different come the morning runs for good or bad

yes definitely. .

and let's take these for example. ..

b4 the next support  18th set. .

and upper repercussions. ..

then I'll  get to where I wanna be ..

as regards. .

the evolving  situ. ..and member4/support confusion! !

...and the scrambling  of high. ..define. .High pressure  give. ..or go. .

and the notion of want or..not want ..when a cold plungenerous starts  to rear!!

image (1).webp

Edited January 28, 2020 by tight isobar

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s always a concern when one of the smaller models keeps churning out flatter solutions . And these are showing up within T120hrs . 

One run isn’t terrible but since yesterday the ICON isn’t interested and it’s always at the back of your mind why it’s keeping on that track.

The upstream pattern is quite complex and small changes make a big impact on the troughing which in turn effects how far north the ridge goes .

 

I'm always very weary of the ICON, I have no idea why some members rubbish it, in fact it's been spot on quite a few times in the past, maybe people just have short memories.

[nick sussex]

If you compare the upstream jet on the NH view at T120hrs on the GFS12hrs run and tonight’s 18hrs run at T114 hrs you’ll see very little difference on a global scale .

The former is just a bit more amplified over the eastern USA but it’s really not a massive difference.

These set ups over the eastern USA always cause problems when you have a phasing of the southern and northern arms of the jet .

 

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by nick sussex

[tight isobar]

Just now, nick sussex said:

If you compare the upstream jet on the NH view at T120hrs on the GFS12hrs run and tonight’s 18hrs run at T114 hrs you’ll see very little difference on a global scale .

The former is just a bit more amplified but it’s really not a massive difference.

These set ups over the eastern USA always cause problems when you have a phasing of the southern and northern arms of the jet .

 

 

agree .

although from 0+ hrs the balls in our courts. ..with miss energy. .

to many eyes  on for -frontal happenings. .b4 we are even out of the euro  window stalls! !!

[tight isobar]

and this is why we could end up with....a fruition  such as this....

as I'll  highlight  in the ensembles  of late /compare  ...

 

edit...

with such synoptic  well within  the reliability  frames. .come next week

Edited January 28, 2020 by tight isobar

[Spah1]

24 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Major backing off of a cold to very cold northerly blast by GFS 18 z following more an ECM high pressure flattened 

out over U.K. Still excitement for a short while.

Pub run and 06 always just for fun

 

[Wilxy]

[tight isobar]

b4 my bore post. .chucking in these. ..4 balance! !!

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z viewing was a pain in my tooth from early on but i have a local anesthetic at stand by 

i will hold off on the prozac for now as is there is some resolve to be resolved in terms of downstream/upstream energy and how amplified this gains

we still have the time for the models to align in a favor that brings cold to our shores

as always...FL is 120+,and stop there

catch you in the morning,well i will view in the morning before dashing to work at 05:45.

night.

[feb1991blizzard]

And the strat charts are crap as well now.

 

Once Freddie krugger gets into full voice and it gets to the 10th Feb, im afraid the only outcome is usually the fat lady starting to harmonise with him.

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And the strat charts are crap as well now.

 

Once Freddie krugger gets into full voice and it gets to the 10th Feb, im afraid the only outcome is usually the fat lady starting to harmonise with him.

pre-evaluated. ..

!!

the horse has bolted. ..and if he didn't. ..he's on a long down welling road. 

I'm astonished how some...big...and small are ignoring  the factors  of curent  overheads. ..and ram'?

that will  focus  in earlier  time funds! !

@shocking

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by tight isobar

[Jordan S]

A longer spell of snow is likely mainly on higher ground for parts of central and perhaps Western Scotland late tomorrow morning into the afternoon as a frontal system moves eastwards some accumulations are possible this may turn back to rain later in the afternoon but some uncertainty with this and the placement.. some rain likely moving into northern England and northern Ireland too this could be wintry on hills when it first moves into these areas but generally rain. 

Arpege..

GFS..

Ecmwf..

Dwd Icon..

Hirlam..

Edited January 28, 2020 by jordan smith

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And the strat charts are crap as well now.

 

Once Freddie krugger gets into full voice and it gets to the 10th Feb, im afraid the only outcome is usually the fat lady starting to harmonise with him.

I wouldn't say the fat lady sings just on one run Feb

lets see what happens over the next couple of days

roller coasters spring to mind.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

pre-evaluated. ..

!!

the horse has bolted. ..and if he didn't. ..he's on a long down welling road. 

I'm astonished how some...big...and small are ignoring  the factors  of curent  overheads. ..and ram'?

 

GEFS mean - not even a Northerly toppler now - just a glancing brief PM air barely cold enough to bring snow even on high ground in the North.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And the strat charts are crap as well now.

 

Once Freddie krugger gets into full voice and it gets to the 10th Feb, im afraid the only outcome is usually the fat lady starting to harmonise with him.

I was at peace with this winter being a dud back in November. I've not been stressed about a lack of cold/snow and acceptance of it was really the best thing I could have done.

As an aside, I think we may see the odd polar north westerly incursion through mid-late Feb and maybe into March. How potent these will be though is open to debate...

[Bristawl Si]

A lot of very warm air to the South of Western Europe. Cape Verde islands have been, and are forecast for foreseeable to see high temps of 29/30c - normal temps for now and early Feb are around 24c. Temps in the Canaries are forecast to hit mid 20s this weekend and early next week - normal high are around 20/21c for early Feb. A big area of very warm, above seasonal temps air is waiting, just as v cold air is to our North.

By mid-Feb Western Europe and UK could easily see above average temps, just as much as cold that is poised to our North and East coming to our shores.

Mid-Feb could go either way imho.

Who would bet against a 16c in Southern England by mid-Feb? Then again, would you bet against a short spell of below average temps by mid-Feb?

Place your bets.

Edited January 28, 2020 by Bristle boy