Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[SMU]

For reference UKMO 168 isnt raw ukmo output tonight - so no clue there.

[nick sussex]

The models still playing around with different solutions regarding that shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic which effects the timing of when the colder air heads se .

The GFS 12hrs evolution does extend the cold and brings in a Scandi high and then possible battleground snow scenario but that relies on the trigger shortwave behaving itself .

The ECM op isn’t really interested , although it hints at some retrogression of the high you’d need more amplitude upstream to deliver another northerly .

Theres low confidence on what happens post northerly given they’re both on a different page so more runs needed .

 

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

For reference UKMO 168 isnt raw ukmo output tonight - so no clue there.

thank  god someone  flagged this..

it's a beta max-perception. 

and even that 1-below par, of the raws! 

 

@nice1  Steve 

Edited January 28, 2020 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

I'm coming  at ya.   .and 4 starter's  here are the temperature progs! !

@latest2! !

[tight isobar]

eps  12th 500. .

I need not post  other stamps. .

for fear  of medicinal  needs of those whom  fail -don't  want what is evolving! !!!

 

 

chuck the block up. ..

and it's a nil -angle of  shut! !!!

 

*all roads. .....really  do lead  to OUTBREAK *....

Edited January 28, 2020 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

For reference UKMO 168 isnt raw ukmo output tonight - so no clue there.

How can it be the UKMO 168 then Steve?

[tight isobar]

17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How can it be the UKMO 168 then Steve?

the ukmo  is of  top 3...verification. .

yet @+144...=168. .

oddly  it's tosh! !!

the ukmo  raw imo  is great. ..but not after +96. .

I'll  try to jump  on what I'm saying. ..by data  holds! !!!

I'll  post..

in short term -window  plots/verification. .

it's  a mash between  the raws. ..

 

yet the 'American '...GFS. ..

rains supreme  ..'overall '..

@seasonal  @veverification. .@all

 

 

edit  .with the gem Cmc-also of note

Edited January 28, 2020 by tight isobar

[That ECM]

18 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

the ukmo  is of  top 3...verification. .

yet @+144...=168. .

oddly  it's tosh! !!

the ukmo  raw imo  is great. ..but not after +96. .

I'll  try to jump  on what I'm saying. ..by data  holds! !!!

I'll  post..

in short term -window  plots/verification. .

it's  a mash between  the raws. ..

 

yet the 'American '...GFS. ..

rains supreme  ..'overall '..

@seasonal  @veverification. .@all

This is how I view your posts. Like an enquisitive dog with my head going from side to side I like them tho

Edited January 28, 2020 by That ECM

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

This is how I view your posts. Like an enquisitive dog with my head go from side to side I like them tho

bless ya

[SMU]

28 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How can it be the UKMO 168 then Steve?

I remember Ian F used to comment on the UKMO raw as UKMO-GM

On the link we use I saw its the UKMO-UM

but irrespective of this the day 6 doesnt tally with the Meteocial UKMO day 6.

Look

UM v GM

 

*** THATS SHOWING 27/01 thats why ***

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by Steve Murr

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I remember Ian F used to comment on the UKMO raw as UKMO-GM

On the link we use I saw its the UKMO-UM

but irrespective of this the day 6 doesnt tally with the Meteocial UKMO day 6.

Look

UM v GM

 

 

*** THATS SHOWING 27/01 thats why ***

 

Thanks.

Edited January 28, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[Beanz]

38 minutes ago, That ECM said:

This is how I view your posts. Like an enquisitive dog with my head going from side to side I like them tho

I’m glad I’m not the only one.  

[shaky]

Icon 18z same as 12z flatter!!

[feb1991blizzard]

18z is absolute garbage.

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

18z is absolute garbage.

Yep I bloody give up . 

[tight isobar]

slowwww. ..down. .

we've  got a well sourced  high pressure  clump. .against  a rush of overwhelming  cold river. ...

it's merely taking aim! !!

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

18z is absolute garbage.

Thought so considering lack of posts!!and also once we see those lows going over the top its very hard to amplify things once again!!and thats the reason why my post was the way it was this morning!!models flatten out once it comes into medium range!!story of the winter!!

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

18z is absolute garbage.

 

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep I bloody give up . 

I knew i shouldn't of mentioned that lock in on the 12z

now it's only one run so lets see how the mornings runs pan out.

[ALL ABOARD]

Yes it's truly remarkable that even when we have the big 3 on board at a reasonable timescale it still goes tits up. 

Horrible winter with the jet once again riding over the top... 

The long wait for a decent ridge  bypasses us again. 

[feb1991blizzard]

The 12z was a huge cold outlier - we need this to be a huge mild outlier

[nick sussex]

This went downhill very early .

Flatter upstream and the upstream trough positively tilted. By day 5 the alarm bells were ringing .

 

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Yes it's truly remarkable that even when we have the big 3 on board at a reasonable timescale it still goes tits up. 

Horrible winter with the jet once again riding over the top... 

The long wait for a decent ridge  bypasses us again. 

It's not happened yet!

[Eskimo]

Jesus wept 

[snowray]

Just now, nick sussex said:

This went downhill very early .

Flatter upstream and the upstream trough positively tilted. By day 5 the alarm bells were ringing .

 

18z is running with the ICON, now would you believe it! 

[tight isobar]

loool. .

take this 180  snap.and remind  yourself  of the polar overide. ..

I enjoy pre-runs. .

it's gains. .and waited. .

with clockwise  momentum sources. .

this will be an-annoying  sync for the next  2 days. ..

b4. .

angular  workings. ..

start to unwind. ..this hp. .and upper  layer 'early  flick '...

is on ourside. ..

the pv  is as desperate  as a love islander  for notified. ..

and like them. ..we will laugh at it!!!..

circular  sequence. ..is firmly  on a north-west  European  clasp!!!

 

we will now likely  get..early realable  eye candy. ..then dross. ..

b4 momentum  aligns. .and it's eye candy reliable   both. ..within. ...without. ..

classic model missed management. ..of placings. .and this time dynam8/mathmatics. ...have us -now in the driving  seat. ...

(give or take a wobble run...or 2) .

Edited January 28, 2020 by tight isobar