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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

ECM nippy for a couple of days then 

0C4EF3AC-6D44-4A02-857C-A1F6ABA52514.thumb.png.fa560eeb00dc873c0cfa183ebbe2d1c5.png

more boredom. 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

ECM nippy for a couple of days then 

0C4EF3AC-6D44-4A02-857C-A1F6ABA52514.thumb.png.fa560eeb00dc873c0cfa183ebbe2d1c5.png

more boredom. 

Yes, disappointing ECM.  Has been signposted by the EPS - the pattern quickly flattening out.

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Posted
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Cold, Sun
  • Location: Ampthill, Bedfordshire
1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

ECM nippy for a couple of days then 

0C4EF3AC-6D44-4A02-857C-A1F6ABA52514.thumb.png.fa560eeb00dc873c0cfa183ebbe2d1c5.png

more boredom. 

At least that chart is dry. 
 

Lots of “boredom” needed around here with months of soaking. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

ECM nippy for a couple of days then 

0C4EF3AC-6D44-4A02-857C-A1F6ABA52514.thumb.png.fa560eeb00dc873c0cfa183ebbe2d1c5.png

more boredom. 

Probably still quite cold as well. Looks like the high will re-amplify to give us another toppler. 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Despite the fact the Northerly on that run looks to brief for the UK with the Atlantic High collapsing, the 12Z ECMWF is no friend of the ICON and its flatter Atlantic ridge (the ridging of which doesn’t gain much Northwards latitude at all).

Enough room still I feel for any possible Northerly to be longer lasting, though a (fairly) brief one wouldn’t be too surprising. Further Northerly attempts could always happen, though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

Could it be the ECM or the ICON hasn’t picked up the new ‘signal’ from the GFS yet as it looks broadly the same as the 0z run ?

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
4 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I’m pleasantly surprised to see the ECM on board...it’s going to be a loooooonnnnng wait 

Yes a long wait alright, but this is already a big upgrade for the ECM, it's pretty rare that it sides with the GFS when cold is showing so it's looking more likely that there will be some interest for coldies in around a weeks time, so not complete and utter la la land. I would be extremely happy with a halfway house between GFS and ECM on this occasion.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

*chewing  fingernails *..

let's await the 12th suits  gefs/Eps-500'so. .

then perhaps  boots won't be selling out of -non biting  finger fluid-...

 

and prozac! !..

the alarm bells  are a-calling. ...and cold is ringing! !!..

hp  place. .fickle. ..

yet the eye  and mind can see the end is nigh. ...for continuous  miss-format. ..evolution. ..

winter AWAITS! !!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
12 minutes ago, Beanz said:

I’m pleasantly surprised to see the ECM on board...it’s going to be a loooooonnnnng wait 

On board for what?  For most it’s no more exciting than today, 1-2 cold days with the odd flake in the east ?

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yes, disappointing ECM.  Has been signposted by the EPS - the pattern quickly flattening out.

I'd argue check suite/suite members. ..runs..as the minors will see the pattern change b4. .the massh dialogue  of data  long perms! !..

to which will  then  switch  us quick. ..but in them updating  beyond  what is by  then occur. ...

seen it MANY TIMES! !

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

Things now look to be firming up on a good chance of a colder flow from the north this time next week, but whether it turns out to be a brief toppler and is quickly followed by HP settling back near the UK turning things milder again, or it brings a colder few days is all very much up in the air.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The jma amplifies the trough/ridge off Newfoundland at 120 but stuck at that.

JN120-21.thumb.gif.fcd5a586d655caec65584d4b9929353a.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Is the ECM 'flattening the high' or is the pattern still developing? 

ECH1-216.GIF?28-0 ECH1-240.GIF?28-0

Why don't we wait and see, is it that difficult just to wait for another 12hrs?

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
15 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

At least that chart is dry. 
 

Lots of “boredom” needed around here with months of soaking. 

That sort of chart would be more tolerable than being under the constant influence of Atlantic Lows and the frequent wet weather. High Pressure being a personal second best option outside of the snowy weather in Winter. In that regard, the ECMWF isn’t much of a disaster. (Not that it ever was a terrible run, but I appreciate some might disagree). 

Just now, Ravelin said:

Is the ECM 'flattening the high' or is the pattern still developing? 

ECH1-216.GIF?28-0 ECH1-240.GIF?28-0

Why don't we wait and see, is it that difficult just to wait for another 12hrs?

I think it is worth being patient and continuing to see how the patterns evolves. Chart viewing can be annoyingly so addictive sometimes lol. 

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Posted
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey
  • Location: Chertsey, Surrey

Well...there is at least some action perturbed but what where and when to be decided. I'd say just follow the meto...no surprise they put a bit of wintryness in their forecast today and then it (potentially) shows up in the models...I'll have whatever they are having!

Hoping this high can build into the right place for now....but I'm liking the options!

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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

Glad I didnt say ciao to winter. Looks like we have another bite at the cherry if only a passing taste.  

Screenshot_20200128-194118_Meteociel.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

Well, I'm none the wiser. A brief milder interlude over the weekend but next week still looking very much up for grabs.

The build of HP midweek next week teases with a brief but quite potent N'ly before toppling but the next build, at least according to GFS OP, sets up a brief Scandinavian HP before the northern arm takes over and the Atlantic roars back for mid month.

12Z ECM OP ends very anticyclonic while GFS 12Z Control ends very zonal with a classic Bartlett. 

If you want some eye candy, the CFS monthly looks more than interesting for late Feb into early March but of course the usual caveats apply...

On the less inspiring side, the strat split continues to look elusive but it does seem likely one warming will quickly be followed by another so weakening and displacement may be on the cards. I'm also less enthused looking at the GEFS - only a couple I'd describe as cold but a good split between mild anticyclonic and mild Atlantic-dominated.

I'm still not expecting anything cold before the end of February apart from the odd day here and there of PM air - obviously, cold that late doesn't work for some on here but it can still deliver snow as we all know. Plenty of time left...

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Well the GFS op may have been a slight outlier, but perhaps the ECM op was a little progressive with temps by the later stages... A respectable mean on the whole, with plenty of colder members and the mean remaining lower than the op. 

EDM0-168.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM0-216.gif

birmingham_ecmsd850.png

london_ecmsd850.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

I like the look of the GFS 12z ens, the mean is looking decidedly cold there by D7, also the op is almost a mild outlier by the end of the run, most members in fact staying cold but with a wide envelope of options from from 2/3c to -8/9c .

 

graphe_ens3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Models showing further swings from something more 'wintry' to mild and back to 'wintry'. Developments hinge on events out of NE USA seaboard, models showing an amplified flow early next week, high pressure ridging through mid atlantic, allowing for a northerly flow. There is good agreement on this, 144 hrs, thereafter as expected differences occur. ECM keener on flattening the high, GFS wants to bring in a colder NE flow, with low heights to the south.

 

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