Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[tight isobar]

I'll  buy-you this evolution. .and raise ya. .the latter supports! !..

it's momentum  at its best...

and takes no prisoners  4 UK cold! !!

 

watch out! !

Edited January 28, 2020 by tight isobar

[Dennis]

GFS12 goes for WINTER easterlies 

 

[Climate Man]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

That's a good trigger for getting cold to the UK

cold uppers backing west now at day ten>

Yes, meant in right direction. 

[snowray]

Here comes our easterly, snow showers moving in there from the north sea.

 

[nick sussex]

A different evolution from the GFS12 hrs run with a trigger shortwave thrown in for good measure! 

Thankfully the horror show ICON didn’t become a trend setter ! That needs to disappear on the 18 hrs and never show its ugly face again . That went downhill well before day 5 and needs to do one ! 

[Allseasons-Si]

Actually there isn't much difference from the 06z in fl so some consistency from the gfs.

[markw2680]

The problem here is we always seem to be day 10 lol. Unless things get down to day 4 and 5 take everything with a bucket of salt, been burnt soooo many times with the models

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 12z uppers @ 192

 

GFS 12z @ 192

 

Wow , id take this for 5th Feb . The high in a decent place for a potent Northerly for once

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

There's two defined cores there though surely? 

Does it need show high pressure in between to be a proper split?

Yes, two distinct vortices with closed circulation and preferably very far apart with huge heights if you want it to have a big impact in terms of getting cold into the UK

[tight isobar]

cold inbedded. .

and yes latter frames. .

but give a slither  or 2 of exacting. ..

winter..heralds. ..

and the game will soon be the winter doomers. .looking  for options! !!

Edited January 28, 2020 by tight isobar

[nick sussex]

The big relief this evening is the improved UKMO output .

That model is really one you can’t afford to not have onside . If that showed what the ICON did I’d be hitting the brandy .

[feb1991blizzard]

Hello Saturday 4th Feb 2012 battleground coming up in a few frames.

[northwestsnow]

Just a brief one from myself, notable that UKMO has moved towards GFS this evening and Exeter now mentioning snow to low levels in the north and east in their latest update.

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello Saturday 4th Feb 2012 battleground coming up in a few frames.

good run this,the mild uppers getting cancelled out by cold from the east and west

JFF of course.

 

[snowray]

This has got to be a boom chart, good old fashioned battle ground.

 

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by snowray

[Allseasons-Si]

It's a snow maker with the trough disrupting over the BI

isotherm down to sea level too

the gfs gives us a lock in and it's not the 18z

Edited January 28, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Gowon]

Strange pattern but I like it 

[Mark wheeler]

Best Charts I’ve seen all winter , Can we start the long journey to get it down to T0. Its not to much to ask is it ?

[Anthony Burden]

GFS 12z still going for the start of winter over the U.K. some very cold runs showing.

will ECM tonight come into line with GFS if so game on,I will prepare the sledge hat and gloves.

[Allseasons-Si]

WOW

the gem is not a gem and sends a BBQ southerly

it's either....

 or 

 

[tight isobar]

12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

WOW

the gem is not a gem and sends a BBQ southerly

it's either....

 or 

 

cmc not to be ignored. .

verifies  well. .

BUT PLAYS- CATCH  UP. ..

 

 

go for the ski part! !

Edited January 28, 2020 by tight isobar

[MATTWOLVES 3]

28 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Just a brief one from myself, notable that UKMO has moved towards GFS this evening and Exeter now mentioning snow to low levels in the north and east in their latest update.

 

Good to see you back NWS, and that's a big improvement from Exeter! There's plenty to get excited about from the 12z ensembles, and within the next 10 day's... I'm gerrin a tad excited... There's a slight stutter appearing in me typing hand...

[markw2680]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

cmc not to be ignored. .

verifies  well. .

BUT PLAYS- CATCH  UP. ..

 

 

go for the ski part! !

Trouble is it’s so far into fi, the smallest of changes early on and it’s balls up unfortunately, it would be sooo nice if just for once this winter it all falls right for the uk and then all this crap we have endured for the last couple of months will be forgotten about.

[Methuselah]

What a time to get home form the farm! A stonkering, stonking stonker of a GFS 12Z Operational. And, just for the sake completeness, I'll post my favourite charts:

    

Lots of frontal snow potential, and some  (future)heat potential away doon sooth!

[Penicuikblizzard]

7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Good to see you back NWS, and that's a big improvement from Exeter! There's plenty to get excited about from the 12z ensembles, and within the next 10 day's... I'm gerrin a tad excited... There's a slight stutter appearing in me typing hand...

Is that a potential easterly or am I reading the charts wrong ??