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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.ec40ae15e251cae22a726fc505548857.png

Almost a 50/50 split from around the 5th February now between the op and colder solutions to something much milder. Position of the high all important going forward. I said last night it'd take another couple of days to sort out, that probably still holds true for a situation like this. Doesn't look like anything sustained though, so potentially a couple/three cold days before it gets moved along.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all

Well, the GFS 06Z OP piqued interest yesterday and has done so again today.

I'm still dubious of us finding a way out of the mild rut before the middle of February at the very earliest and I think late Feb - early March remains our best shot at something cold.

Clearly, it's about HP positioning and orientation - do we get a small LP over Iberia for example which serves to keep the HP to the north or do we get a toppler as the northern arm of the jet proves too strong? The key to an evolution to something different would be to slow the Atlantic and get some amplification and that's going to be helped by a weakened or re-aligned TPV. 

IF the projected warmings can achieve the necessary de-stabilisation then we have a chance of something more than a mid-latitude HP just to the south or south-west of the British Isles and get that vital northward move to start advecting some colder air over us.

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Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire

Worth pointing out that Icon has shown no interest in amplification now for the second run on the bounce

Hopefully it’s not a trend setter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
5 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Worth pointing out that Icon has shown no interest in amplification now for the second run on the bounce

Hopefully it’s not a trend setter. 

Was about to mention this as well knowing are luck the ICON has it spot on!

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Hi gang ,realy hoping tonights ECM Run continues the prospects of a cold shot next week .we have Met office now on board as well ,but at 7 days range details will change , the trouble being where will the High pressure take up residence, and will there be an escape of bottled up cold from the Arctic to benefit the uk for us coldies .certainly our best shot this winter , STELLAS ALL ROUND, cheers gang .

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Much better ukmo 1444 than the midnight run,shows that this model can be poor sometimes too

 

 

7A334A25-5E12-445E-A243-D17E43274D64.png

95A49DCD-B394-4D05-AC08-13972B28B077.png

That's well in fl

but yes a good UKMO

UN144-21.thumb.gif.badcbdb7f2efa9b2e8a9c3974dec3637.gif

@tight isobar

looking v good at 174 but i hold caution thanks to the ICON.

gfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.fc3dd4211f90dea284ee2862c61827b3.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Don’t like this run now,the coldest air over the North Sea,and not the U.K.

So hard to get proper cold over the u.k.,this run won’t be doing it.

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Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
Just now, SLEETY said:

Don’t like this run now,the coldest air over the North Sea,and not the U.K.

So hard to get proper cold over the u.k.,this run won’t be doing it.

Yep, big difference 7 days out and only the Eastern half of the country  gets a 2 day glancing blow. Westward correction desperately needed on pub run.

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

The GFS is not a million miles away from a easterly setting up here 

10FD705B-35CB-4A38-AAE3-475B02CEB3C7.png

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Just now, seabreeze86 said:

The GFS is not a million miles away from a easterly setting up here 

10FD705B-35CB-4A38-AAE3-475B02CEB3C7.png

You beat me to it I was busy drawing!❄☃️

20200128_162917.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Could be a snorter this - all down to what that shortwave to or WNW does, looks very strange and looks ominous but the fact that it is being ejected and a ridge is building behind it and that cold pool to the East isn't retreating its holding firm, i suggest bullseye by the end of the run.

image.thumb.png.56795e9cbdfe666a512c2679a745c929.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Funny this forum.... 

What's wrong with this? 

The door is opening to a 87 type scenario

 

Screenshot_20200128_162958_com.android.chrome.jpg

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Don’t like this run now,the coldest air over the North Sea,and not the U.K.

So hard to get proper cold over the u.k.,this run won’t be doing it.

All academic at that range...but trough disrupting west of the UK isn't a bad thing and could lead to an easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

 

4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Don’t like this run now,the coldest air over the North Sea,and not the U.K.

So hard to get proper cold over the u.k.,this run won’t be doing it.

It's a lot better.. It's a smaller wedge of high pressure but it's in a better position for the whole country and to sustain the cold.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
1 minute ago, seabreeze86 said:

The GFS is not a million miles away from a easterly setting up here 

10FD705B-35CB-4A38-AAE3-475B02CEB3C7.png

I was downbeat minutes ago but now.....just need lose that little blighter  south of Iceland 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Gota say very good 12zs so far barring the icon!!still sticking to my forecast of everything flattening out to nothingness in the end though!!hope it dont by the way!!

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

i never get excited about a Scandi high until it hits at least 96 hours away,too many let-downs over the years.

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Strat split as early as t+198 on the GFS 12z...

image.thumb.png.d38ad290a1a3cdfa1ec32d0434bed4ba.png

Not quite split but nicely stretched.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, Climate Man said:

I was downbeat minutes ago but now.....just need lose that little blighter  south of Iceland 

That's a good trigger for getting cold to the UK

cold uppers backing west now at day ten>

gfsnh-1-246.thumb.png.b55aba2bdf0d9bcc0891ed1c2af48521.png

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not quite split but nicely stretched.

There's two defined cores there though surely? 

Does it need show high pressure in between to be a proper split?

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

UKMO T120 - this is the launching point necessary to achieve the northerly 2 days later - straight line southerly off the east coast of Canada/USA - which will promote the north Atlantic high:

UW120-21.GIF?28-17

I'm ignoring the fun on the GFS after T216 as it's very much in outlier territory, though the GFS is of course famed for correctly picking unlikely looking patterns from time to time. 

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