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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
13 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Two other posters are saying the ukmo is rubbish. 

Confusing.

One talking about their location and the other entitled to his opinion which is that he sees it flattening out. I don’t. All part of the discussion and all entitled to our opinion.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
32 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ukmo is absolutely horrendous!!just waiting for the inevitable flattening out to occur later on this evening or in a couple of days!!just aint falling for this rubbish anymore this winter!!!sorry aint being negative but its just the way it is dudes!!ec46 and seasonals have been bang on!!sometimes i wonder is it better to stick to those than the models themselves!!bring that notherly to around 96 hours then we talking!!!

Yes and the significant thing is that the METO are going for the Atlantic taking back to control so even if a mid lat High comes again, a sinker looks very likely and that's more time wasted.

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
5 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Yes and the significant thing is that the METO are going for the Atlantic taking back to control so even if a mid lat High comes again, a sinker looks very likely and that's more time wasted.

I think there’ll be further attempts at N’lies with a more potent and longer lasting appearing next time round. Next weeks one does look like a brief affair sadly.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
1 hour ago, That ECM said:

One talking about their location and the other entitled to his opinion which is that he sees it flattening out. I don’t. All part of the discussion and all entitled to our opinion.

It is rubbish up to 144 hours!!i dunno how any poster on here can take any positive from the 00z ukmo!!it  is what it is!!maybe an improvement on the 12z later?

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

The GFS 06z continuing to show reasonable amplification of the High out West in the Atlantic early to mid next week.

92C8C7C5-DA64-4C9C-BF8C-2EBBBB187BDE.thumb.png.fc61c554e2d1cf8b72a488d8064e8eec.png66C89823-D1A1-4206-A88F-D8037A456377.thumb.png.c96aad225ec942beef37ca111c2e7edf.png9E82CFB9-069F-4FD1-BA74-0DFFB3A862D3.thumb.png.7071bfb4114cb62d4f224d31efe0bed1.png

-10*C 850 hPa temperatures pouring into Scotland again and should be cold enough for some sleet and snow showers to low levels in places. 

Fingers crosses for the cold weather enthusiasts that the GFS will end up being close to the mark with this setup.

Even in the present time, today should continue to deliver some wintry weather to places.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
11 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-252.png?6

Not a Classic Toppler 
gfseu-5-258.png?6

 

No its not, but it does look like the high is going to sink and merge with the main high again which wouldn't be fantastic at all.. Saying that it might, after a few frames afterward, rebuild northwards, going on to show another northerly of sorts?! 

Edited by Snowfish2
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

gfs ....keen as mustard. ..and is yet another  good/great run. .

dog with a bone. ...sums things up. ..and again opens  up many variations  on the theme! !!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
8 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

No its not but it does look like the high is going to merge with the main high agin which wouldn't be fantastic at all.. Saying that it might build northwards a few!!frames on if we are very lucky!! 

After that, look at the insane cold coming of f the Atlantic at t276 (deep FI).
 

image.thumb.png.1273c6e15c752e399289e0b7f9e971d5.png

 

 From t168 onwards...its cold and getting colder, even when depth of cold dissipates as it’s HP surface cold will be well in place.....for this winter 06z is a peach....will HP build in right place and not my forecast wrong place.....it won’t take much for it to be either bitterly cold or drab.  Anyone got the UKMO t168?

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

After that, look at the insane cold coming of f the Atlantic.  From t168 onwards...its cold and getting colder, even when depth of cold dissipates as it’s HP surface cold will be well in place.....for this winter 06z is a peach....will HP build in right place and not my forecast wrong place.....it won’t take much for it to be either bitterly cold or drab.  Anyone got the UKMO t168?

 

BFTP

Tagged Gavin for you - @Summer Sun he will have it - Gav - can you post up the UKMO 168 please?

 

I think it might be a sinker though the UKMO.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
17 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

After that, look at the insane cold coming of f the Atlantic.  From t168 onwards...its cold and getting colder, even when depth of cold dissipates as it’s HP surface cold will be well in place.....for this winter 06z is a peach....will HP build in right place and not my forecast wrong place.....it won’t take much for it to be either bitterly cold or drab.  Anyone got the UKMO t168?

 

BFTP

 

18 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

gfs ....keen as mustard. ..and is yet another  good/great run. .

dog with a bone. ...sums things up. ..and again opens  up many variations  on the theme! !!!!

It is a great run, better than the 0z for pure surface cold. Do not want to put the mockers on it and just fingers crossed that the op is seeing the right direction of travel as the GEFS have still away to go (0z):

anim_edu6.gif

However, with such a setup the op would generally lead the way. If we get that northerly and quasi-topple, post that looks very complicated and the 06z is one option. Getting that initial Atlantic ridge is the first target and we are 2-3 days away from verification of that...

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, IDO said:

 

It is a great run, better than the 0z for pure surface cold. Do not want to put the mockers on it and just fingers crossed that the op is seeing the right direction of travel as the GEFS have still away to go (0z):

anim_rjr3.gif

However, with such a setup the op would generally lead the way. If we get that northerly and quasi-topple, post that looks very complicated and the 06z is one option. Getting that initial Atlantic ridge is the first target and we are 2-3 days away from verification of that...

yeah agree it's all based around  initial  high  placing  in the Atlantic. .

and both surge  and escape. ..

however  a very different  outlook  looks a very good bet now. ..and the options  for cold are beginning to question up! !

 

so some exiting  watching  for sure...and at the very least. ...1 would  suspect  at least fleeting shots of artcic  incursions. ..although  I'm opting for much more than that. ..and highly  suspect  that the cards  are falling  into place  now. ....at last! !!

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

And the award for the coldest westerly flow ever goes to .....  

847D31A1-30FC-4A81-B232-295FF84C8477.png

E4B344ED-5B61-4355-B69F-547DE42C9835.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
42 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Tagged Gavin for you - @Summer Sun he will have it - Gav - can you post up the UKMO 168 please?

 

I think it might be a sinker though the UKMO.

Here you go

ukm2.2020020312_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.7a48d8ae741c7e562f84b2e9dcf20757.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Most wintry weather of the winter so far in 9/10 days time?

image.thumb.png.607116707ea872c990224829e60950ec.pngimage.thumb.png.03928b55dca07fe119c464e30b46b9b7.pngimage.thumb.png.49f2c6cbe1a5701575806c8b4972cfdc.png

Snow charts not showing anything around the same time apart from Scotland - but these are rubbish anyway. Anything ppn wise is likely to be wintry with that sort of set up.

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

If the northerly does land and the ridge is sufficiently north with the coldest air over the UK then it won’t end up a typical northerly topper because the upstream flow after the initial ridge is likely to send the jet ne not east .

As you can see from the GFS 06 hrs run the ridge topples but doesn’t really sink south and then you pull in a ne flow .

Low heights then develop to the south supporting the high .

So there’s a lot riding on this for coldies. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Looks good in FI, can it hold on though... Keeps pushing back everytime though which has been the problem all winter.

Worth watching as always.

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Posted
  • Location: Dursley
  • Weather Preferences: 4 seasons please
  • Location: Dursley

https://reliefweb.int/report/samoa/tropical-disturbance-td05f-develops-near-samoa-tonga-met-service-predict-start-el-nino

To those way more knowledgeable than myself, what are the potential effects of an El Nino developing likely to be on our weather and are the models able to pick up on an upcoming event and factor this in to their runs?

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

A little bit of Jan 87 about the proposed evolution from the Ops

 

Last pic is current set up

 

 

Screenshot_20200128_122740_com.android.chrome.jpg

 

 

Screenshot_20200128_122955_com.android.chrome.jpg

 

Screenshot_20200128_123151_com.android.chrome.jpg

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
49 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thanks.

That's last night's 12z though. It hasn't updated for this morning's 0z yet.

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