Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not been wrong yet ...........

Last year....totally wrong.  Some have short memories.

This year a stopped watch could have forecasted winter, with the benefit of hindsight.  

Anyway, I think a big finish for the pub run in the strat...T342

Edited January 27, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Mapantz]

Back to the current output please, not what is right or wrong from yesteryear. 

[tight isobar]

another  set perhaps  smelling  the coffee. .

and arguably  supporting  ..

18z  London  ones. 

Edited January 27, 2020 by tight isobar

[MATTWOLVES 3]

It's ensemble time... I nearly spat out me ovaltine... Surely things are beginning to look up now, there's quite a lot of background noise a devoloping.. Regarding the EC46, I will say this.... If a major split of the vortex takes place, and it falls favourably for us.... I still think the EC46 will be showing the same old Wstly routine in its outlook... Embrace the moment folks... Things are looking up.. 

[syed2878]

3 hours ago, nick sussex said:

The EC46 should be put out of its misery ! 

I expect the wind direction is the same crud it’s dished out all winter ! 

 And sadly the ECMWF 46 so far have been right this winter sadly for those of us who like the wintry weather on like last year when it was predicting wintry Synoptics and none of which came off.

[tight isobar]

a cracking  start to the day. ..where the arguably most reliable  suite 00z. .is actually  better than the 18z. .great evolution. ..on both block format. ..and polar incursion. 

[Daniel*]

Usually we fall back to earth with a bump but not with 00z is class. A northerly plunge of sorts looks likely...

[tight isobar]

absolutely beautiful. ..

-12s. ..widespread. ..

and the bottled  up freezer  points are dripping over us. ..

 

stunning  00z gfs! !!!

[tight isobar]

@240. .

and we tap into possible  continental -surge....

this run has everything  a cold -fan could ask  for!!!

Edited January 28, 2020 by tight isobar

[SLEETY]

Looks like winter is finally coming, took your time 2020 winter! 

[Jordan S]

Gfs looking very interesting for coldies days 6-10 atleast a cold northerly developing it is brief though then a more northeasterly but with a definite shift west with the high in this update. 

Upper air temperatures..

[Ali1977]

Back with a boom, not talking deep FI neither. I’ll give it another 2 days before getting too exited though!! 
Check out those windchill temps!!

[Djdazzle]

Good start to the day with GFS, but caution needed as it’s still in FI. Will the ECM show similar?

[That ECM]

  The panel illustrates how important the high is and where it goes to getting cold into the uk. Need the theme of last couple of runs to continue

[That ECM]

33 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Good start to the day with GFS, but caution needed as it’s still in FI. Will the ECM show similar?

T168 is an improvement.  I prefer ukmo at t144 tho.

Edited January 28, 2020 by That ECM

[KTtom]

Bit more of a sobering ecm, especially later on and more in line with the Mets text forecasts, i.e. highnover the uk. Cracking gfs, although as some have already said, caution will be the buzz work, getting the azores high to ridge north has been like pulling teeth this winter, the powers that be also not even hinting at a northerly next week. 

Edited January 28, 2020 by KTtom

[bluearmy]

8 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Last year....totally wrong.  Some have short memories.

This year a stopped watch could have forecasted winter, with the benefit of hindsight.  

Anyway, I think a big finish for the pub run in the strat...T342

so it was completely wrong last year when the cold didn’t turn up but it’s crap this year when it doesn’t ???

its a useful week 3/4 tool and potential trends beyond that ......and it’s misused by all of us looking for winter as a slight high week 5 anomoly over ne England becomes a fully fledged scandi block with the desperation coldies have ......

[Methuselah]

Major hope for T+210...It's getting closer, folks!

    

[carinthian]

Morning all, a bit of a disappointment from the UKMO run this morning. Very mild uppers covering much of Europe at 144t. Looking at the flow charts from this run still shows development of a wave to develop at the base of the Atlantic trough North of the Azores in its latter stages but certainly different orientation of the driving force that is the North Atlantic low compared to the other main models.  Of course this run may be wrong or just possibly delaying any southward movement of the polar front which would allow a cold high to build to the NW . The strength of any high on this run still appears to the south.  Maybe, the UKMO extended will offer a clue but presently looks like UK Met Office not having much interest in a colder spell to develop. Our team here much in the GFS camp this morning.

C

Edited January 28, 2020 by carinthian

[shaky]

Ukmo is absolutely horrendous!!just waiting for the inevitable flattening out to occur later on this evening or in a couple of days!!just aint falling for this rubbish anymore this winter!!!sorry aint being negative but its just the way it is dudes!!ec46 and seasonals have been bang on!!sometimes i wonder is it better to stick to those than the models themselves!!bring that notherly to around 96 hours then we talking!!!

[Nick F]

00z GFS op at the cold end of the ensembles spread, but not without support.

usually GFS has a good track record with modelling northerlies at range, though the 00z op probably at the extreme end wrt depth of cold and duration, given EC is much less cold and shorter in duration with the northerly, while GEM and ICON don't look to entertain the idea of a northerly at all. So caution required if getting too excited looking at those T850 and precipitation charts from GFS.

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

T168 is an improvement.  I prefer ukmo at t144 tho.

Two other posters are saying the ukmo is rubbish. 

Confusing.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ukmo is absolutely horrendous!!just waiting for the inevitable flattening out to occur later on this evening or in a couple of days!!just aint falling for this rubbish anymore this winter!!!sorry aint being negative but its just the way it is dudes!!ec46 and seasonals have been bang on!!sometimes i wonder is it better to stick to those than the models themselves!!bring that notherly to around 96 hours then we talking!!!

Anything outside of 72 hrs is FI especially if there’s disagreement between models! No point getting excited just yet as things can get watered down as they have been all winter.

A real dose of reality needed here!

[Beanz]

GFS having a bit of fun with FI this morning, enjoy watching the 204hr+ eye candy, I can’t see it being there tomorrow! 
 

ECM looking the sensible solution at the moment, UKMO is not ‘horrendous’ in fact at times like this my money is normally on UKMO to be the form horse.  

[Tim Bland]

It’s a great 3 day Northerly on the GFS with snow for some ...However it’s a shame that we are back to square one shortly after. Ensembles also agree on a quick warm up ...