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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Out to 210 and that's a nice looking chart, -10's covering Scotland.  Good days model watching today, but beware the bite of the volatile Pub Run.

image.thumb.png.5fc094224b00db7e2986b98ad63f9932.pngimage.thumb.png.71695a5c2511870350f14b8e7767b395.png  

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
3 hours ago, tight isobar said:

lol. ..it's obviously  not got to that point  as yet. ...and despite  previous  carrot dangling. ...

the dart has to hit the board  if you keep throwing  it.

and with given  atmospheric  nudges. ..

we'll  wait  and see aye! !!!

I’ve been spending the last 2 hours trying to figure out your post and missed the 18z...

pub run looks hugely (as expected) over amplified.  I’m with Nick Sussex, we’re not seeing what we need right now. 

Edited by Beanz
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Beanz said:

I’ve been spending the last 2 hours trying to figure out your post and missed the 18z...

then shame on you pal! !!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

yep  expect  some notable  Hlb. .

on the 18z. ..

I have edited your wording as mlb isn't good enough

height's pushing up towards Greenland should signify Hlb

gfsnh-0-234.thumb.png.88a5e448629c0020dd8a439fce971c81.png

although this is an upgrade,we still need to count it down,hopefully an upgrade count down.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Well fingers crossed the amplification in the upper flow early-mid next week comes off to allow a proper cold northerly that can bring a flake of snow even to the south. Because it looks, for now, that it may take second warming later in Feb to perhaps finally knock out the wretched strong SPV that has ruined the winter for cold and snow lovers thus far.

18z GFS certainly putting on a good show.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

true winter charts. .and very exeptable  850  incurance. ..

and why not...isn't  it time the-thorn in the side HP - gave us a break!???

gfs-1-240.png

gfs-1-228.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
10 minutes ago, Dennis said:

who wants this......

 

image.thumb.png.2c94ef5a0676f5bc7cb433cd3d473422.pngimage.thumb.png.32a24c3c65da20f411490a1fe1d9ffae.png

I think the majority on here do

silly question

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
12 minutes ago, Dennis said:

who wants this......

 

image.thumb.png.2c94ef5a0676f5bc7cb433cd3d473422.pngimage.thumb.png.32a24c3c65da20f411490a1fe1d9ffae.png

I mean its cold, sunny with a chance of snow showers around the coasts and as the high topples over us some very frosty nights, yes please!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No prizes for guessing the predominant wind direction on the EC46.

Erm, not north or east?!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well by T300 the trop vortex is a mangled alien looking mess.

image.thumb.jpg.6ee72ab10f28092e53773bfe3273139f.jpg

And the high looks to be retrogressing.  And an Arctic high has appeared, hello, welcome to netweather!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nope - W'ly

So, I was correct to say not north or east!  I was hoping you were going to say north easterly, but this ain't a dream lol!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The EC46 should be put out of its misery ! 

I expect the wind direction is the same crud it’s dished out all winter ! 

But we've had crud all winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

This evolution is safer than the earlier GFS12 hrs run .

More margin for error so less chance of phasing with the upstream troughing between day 7 and 8 .

We need the ridge to build cleanly northwards which happens here . As for past day ten , not worth worrying about .

The main thing is to overcome the earlier hurdles !

Well like you say the gfs 18z runs the hurdles no problem leaving it's counterparts(ens)behind,well i hope so

giphy.thumb.gif.ddf540635de39dad087d0eaf7ded45fe.gif

the ens i hope will catch up nearer the timeline

back to the 18z gfs and a reload looks on the cards and whilst we have that hp cell dumbelling around to our west there is every possibility of a reload.

gfsnh-0-312.thumb.png.ba08e564d747f94b4eaa3a4174ad1765.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Could be a sustained northerly at the end! That block is going nowhere fast! 

6565E152-EF88-4F78-BE92-E39B6C5C095F.png

4E6C3459-7981-4175-ACEE-1AA1569C780D.png

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The EC46 should be put out of its misery ! 

I expect the wind direction is the same crud it’s dished out all winter ! 

Not been wrong yet ...........

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Could be a sustained northerly at the end! That block is going nowhere fast! 

6565E152-EF88-4F78-BE92-E39B6C5C095F.png

The minus 8's are marching south at T330:

image.thumb.jpg.5b933d2bd6be092c17d9f11bbb1724dd.jpg

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