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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
5 minutes ago, topo said:

Another joke rubbish run from ECMWF.

It keeps seeing the same pattern the last 15 days for 216-240 hours and of course is never verifying.

 

 

No chart at 216 plus hours will verify as it is, no matter the set up. The only changing trend I see is that the jet stream in the Atlantic is hinted to be more amplified in the medium to longer term which may means a northerly might occur. Not at the stage where excitement should be building as its too far out but at least it makes things a tad more interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
13 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

No chart at 216 plus hours will verify as it is, no matter the set up. The only changing trend I see is that the jet stream in the Atlantic is hinted to be more amplified in the medium to longer term which may means a northerly might occur. Not at the stage where excitement should be building as its too far out but at least it makes things a tad more interesting.

Who knows where the MLB will place it's self but there's no reason it won't for once

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Doubt this would come off, but the 12Z JMA throws up a small Low over South-Western UK at 192 hours within the cool North-Westerly flow.

3C6BEA24-36D2-4130-B34F-42AEBD1DB6BC.thumb.gif.b81b2cdafb270000a8658165c2df7551.gif545261B8-458F-4B1D-9124-684EDEB1A3D4.thumb.gif.38f9b5453ad18f10b54e27e6103e17b9.gif

850 hPa temperatures are marginal, though perhaps a possibility for the precipitation to be a bit wintry over Wales and the Midlands. Best chances clearly on high ground. (Just for a spot of fun) 

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You need much more sharpness to the upstream troughing days 7 and 8 , instead we’ve got the bloated troublemaker .

You need to have words with that upstream troughing. It’s time it learnt some manners.  Is being inconsiderate to those mid Atlantic ridges not allowing them enough time to stretch themselves far enough North. May be you could stretch the Eastern Canadian trough as far as possible getting it vertically aligned against the Atlantic ridge, so it sends loads of warm air up to Greenland...

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

The Gfs and indeed Ecm have been quite consistent in the idea of having high pressure to the west with a cold northerly flow for a time towards day 10 the Gem also shows this. 

Gfs..

EUROPE_PRMSL_204.thumb.jpg.c4b10f57f4d4728ccea34876295c032c.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_222.thumb.jpg.0ebd2ccff8be74c6410721626935a3d4.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_240.thumb.jpg.0ddb6aae4554c25e5099ad02a5aa30fa.jpg

Gfs quite quickly moves that high over the country cutting off a colder northerly flow.

Gem..

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_210.thumb.jpg.ef142aceb2b5222114afa94b0a52266a.jpgEUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_228.thumb.jpg.ca90b3d71e238b604ca1e8463aeed9ee.jpg

Gem slower in moving that high over the uk so ofcourse colder northerly lasts longer. 

Ecm.. 

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_192.thumb.jpg.f326191515cf5d0d705c1568f75da0ce.jpg

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_240.thumb.jpg.d73504c4c81628a3bd48c8f2f74d61f3.jpg

Ecm sort of between the Gem and Gfs output. 

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Well there is your 12z outlier for London from the ECM....

 

graphe_ens3.png

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Still too much ensemble noise for any excitement yet. Nice little cluster of colder runs appearing, but until that tips to wrk beyond 50% then best not get too hyped. A couple of days probably needed before we have a good idea.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Still too much ensemble noise for any excitement yet. Nice little cluster of colder runs appearing, but until that tips to wrk beyond 50% then best not get too hyped. A couple of days probably needed before we have a good idea.

Apropos of nothing, around 20% of eps members bring a countrywide snow event at some point in the 9/15 day period ....

That means 80%  dont btw ...... (Note I said ‘countrywide’ )

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Apropos of nothing, around 20% of eps members bring a countrywide snow event at some point in the 9/15 day period ....

That means 80%  dont btw ...... (Note I said ‘countrywide’ )

That is pretty decent for this winter, i haven't seen many if any suites so far that have a 20% countrywide tonking strike rate.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Last chance saloon for this winter, if this  small probability, currently, of something much colder arriving doesn't come off then that's it for this winter until spring arrives of course... 

 

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
4 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

I am aware of that Jason,lets see what happens when we get nearer the time,lets hope that it builds northwest like the anomalies show

eps/gefs at day ten.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.2f452b5d623490ff8dca01482ee18bd9.pnggfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.e1e4cc185761e228541ebd907f394cec.png

  Models have been quite interesting today how ever all these called chart showing up I will not buy into it just yet looking at the extended from Met office Exeter is not buying into anything really cold in February just yet ☺️

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Posted
  • Location: Ashcott nr Bridgwater
  • Location: Ashcott nr Bridgwater
37 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Last chance saloon for this winter, if this  small probability, currently, of something much colder arriving doesn't come off then that's it for this winter until spring arrives of course... 

 

Is that just your opinion or do you have charts to back that up ?

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Battersea, London
  • Location: Battersea, London
40 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Last chance saloon for this winter, if this  small probability, currently, of something much colder arriving doesn't come off then that's it for this winter until spring arrives of course... 

 

You obviously have never heard of the  weather events, end of February 2018!

Gender Male Location Battersea London

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
19 minutes ago, bigdog1 said:

Is that just your opinion or do you have charts to back that up ?

 

 

Well considering we are entering the last month of winter and  if we don’t get this colder spell and the pattern falls flat again ,we haven’t got much time left for cold weather to develop,it doesn’t just happen overnight to get cold weather into the U.K. 

That doesn’t mean we won’t go cold as we head into spring which I also mentioned.Anyway let’s see what happens over the next 24 hours..

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Back to the models some of ya please. A few of the recent posts are tending to be more about general Winter chat rather than the charts. Tar! 

We will keep our dungeon unlocked in case we do need to through any naughty members inside.

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

Looking at the 10 and 30 hpa the warming has slowed and beginning to drop back down 

not sure how these work, I assume these are near real time or are they a forecast?

someone on here who has better knowledge may be able to explain.

go easy I’m still learning

4592B8A7-9F1B-4268-89D5-04F91839CD86.jpeg

4B306B40-8C8B-4DD2-88B7-FD7768F0FA47.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Pub run already more amplified than the 12z on the key ridge developing to the far SW T138, vs 12z T144:

image.thumb.jpg.643570b50f79cfb8223fde2060936ca9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.973a3ce361444e619c3111dd962adebf.jpg

Should be a better run this one...

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Yes Mike, looking better out at 162 vs 168 of 12z re the amplification up towards Greenland.  *IF* this run follows a similar evolution, it *should* be a good run...

image.thumb.png.393feb86dd48b95e98354bd970f70de4.pngimage.thumb.png.91c6b95f4572a4c6e2ef0c60f542a13f.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

yep  expect  some notable  mlb. .

on the 18z. ..

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