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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
1 minute ago, igloo said:

yes it looks like that low will scutter any change of presure building in the mid Atlantic.anther topiler by the looks of it

 It might end up being a better run if it links with the ridge over Russia so panic over for now lol

image.thumb.png.2d8ea5ee9eedd7bf2f1586278c6f2500.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow in winter Warm Sunny Summer
  • Location: Swansea South West Wales

image.png.e8c07dd73c0cffda1bc9778b3764d229.png

Greece heading into the freezer Heights lowering in the med baby steps but a good start to the 12z’s

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

tbh  apart from a fleeting glimpse. .the 12th gfs just has a possible  road back to where we  have already  been....

@UK high  placement. ..

we've  been bitten with poison  before  here! 

anyway  let's see where we end up later this evening! ???

 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Most decent cold spells start with a uk high (which migrates north and west) last time we were unlucky. PV is weakening over Greenland this time though, possibly effected by the strat warming. Let’s hope this time we get lucky! 

334F8663-0F35-4650-B1C4-9BE6D9B89A53.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

1 run. ..1 snap. .

but YET AGAIN  highlights  just how tricky-getting cold into our shores is !!

while Europe  goes cold  we could sit  peering through  the euro window. ..salivating! !!

however. .with upper atmospheric  changes  and a now/by then notable cold European sheet. ...surely  we can get lucky. ..

an  eye on cross data's  now! !!!

gfs-1-264.png

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Looks like the models do agree on the jet stream in the Atlantic will buckle a bit, as usual how amplified it gets will depend on how cold it will get. 

Not bothered if it's not showing screaming northeries, the details are irrelevant, it's the fact all models agree on some sort of change in the Atlantic which is the more encouraging thing for me, something we barely seen in January. 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Not as good as 06z but a variation on the theme, still cold enough for some wintry showers in the east. I’d settle for this while we wait for the SSW to deliver the final blow...

0DC9BEEE-227F-4C37-8D43-EEC2F29445B0.png

96A8C431-F1A6-45BC-9CB2-D12B3D34474C.png

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

The 12Z GEM has taken the more amplified route this afternoon compared to its earlier 00Z run. The High Pressure in the Atlantic for Wednesday next week poking much further Northwards with some shallows Lows diving underneath the ridge.  

221C1F17-45C8-4F89-B0E7-A420FB3A27E0.thumb.png.20cf83791ef34632a2112806867a8680.pngE9A636CA-65CE-467B-A87A-EEA6C8E03BB8.thumb.png.90644829118e9a467d34af896169b751.png

Colder air to the North of the UK filtering Southwards. 

The GEM 00Z below was flatter around the same time over the UK with more of a Westerly to North-Westerly flow.

2A404056-7ADE-4143-BFCD-A1F1F69E842B.thumb.png.f68f1a288a19b42eea55e865a73b0f9f.pngF7DFBDA8-A536-4614-9F1F-FEFF6255BD4C.thumb.png.482ff8dc686e8caf9b8cdbe9b35f01be.png

Still chilly, mind.

It is quite likely that this possible North-Westerly or Northerly flow may be transient as Low Pressure to the West of the ridging could just knock the High back South or perhaps push it directly over the UK. Although this sort of setup isn’t close enough yet to be totally sure of that. 
 

@Tim Bland was just thinking the same. A step up on its previous run anyway.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

I counted 3 cyclonic wave breaks in Atlantic on tonights GFS

anim_dxm3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

How is GFS still seeing a 75% chance of wintry precip over London?! I wish!

Screenshot_20200127-171451_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Not bad these, not flatlining at -10c but a good number of runs are consistently coldish for a period rather than just 12 hours zig zagging back up again.

image.thumb.png.5323adf366ad9a9d978865d44c9dbd35.png

Stratospherically the op had downgraded over the last 24 hours with only a very slightly displaced vortex actually in the mid strat.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m

It's interesting (and I suppose encouraging) to see that the PM air long forecast to reach us over the next couple of days looks like it will actually happen. I know it's not going to result in widespread snow but usually when the GFS counts this kind of PM shot down all the -5 air disappears completely. 

Might be the odd Wintry surprise over the next couple of days?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm liking the 12z ensembles, very much plenty of eye candy... Here's some I've just picked from the warehouse with the forklift. Can guarantee Winter will begin just as its meant to be ending... Let's refrain from ramping though...

gens-0-0-288.png

gens-0-1-264.png

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gens-14-0-276.png

gens-14-1-264.png

tenor.gif

But maybe the 12Zs aren't quite as encouraging as the 06Zs, Matt:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

But who knows...we could even end-up with a NW-SE tilted PFJ?

And, unfortunately, there's no sign of any <-10C T850s creeping into the Southeast...:cray:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Maybe relevant, but our local ITV weather guy (they still use the Meto) just commented that the longer range output (Glosea maybe?) is showing Atlantic mobility for way into the foreseeable. Temps forecast to hit 13/14c locally by end of week.

Edited by Bristle boy
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
7 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Maybe relevant, but our local ITV weather guy (they still use the Meto) just commented that the longer range output (Glosea maybe?) is showing Atlantic mobility for way into the foreseeable. Temps forecast to hit 13/14c locally by end of week.

I suspect any forecaster worth their salt uses the term ‘foreseeable’ as being pretty much that, about 5/6 days.  The Met O have discussed a similar mobile pattern out to that point (into and over the weekend) in their own forecasts today.  
 

On NW ‘foreseeable’ tends to mean, well as far as the model run goes and maybe a bit more for extra measure

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
19 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Maybe relevant, but our local ITV weather guy (they still use the Meto) just commented that the longer range output (Glosea maybe?) is showing Atlantic mobility for way into the foreseeable. Temps forecast to hit 13/14c locally by end of week.

The ECM 12z may change there forecast

E3047A29-3232-4F85-84D2-01101552F3B4.png

12F3E857-9382-46E9-AF70-CA53260C2F60.png

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Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway

Another joke rubbish run from ECMWF.

It keeps seeing the same pattern the last 15 days for 216-240 hours and of course is never verifying.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
6 minutes ago, topo said:

Another joke rubbish run from ECMWF.

It keeps seeing the same pattern the last 15 days for 216-240 hours and of course is never verifying.

 

 

lol. ..it's obviously  not got to that point  as yet. ...and despite  previous  carrot dangling. ...

the dart has to hit the board  if you keep throwing  it.

and with given  atmospheric  nudges. ..

we'll  wait  and see aye! !!!

Edited by tight isobar
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