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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
18 minutes ago, IDO said:

...more interest for me is post D10 and how the tPv is now being modelled:

gfsnh-0-258.thumb.png.bed10e4d17e763e119f301ae8b9952af.pnggfsnh-1-258.thumb.png.990415b909332ea3ddcb4e503ae605b3.png

So there is mega cold moving south to mid-lats, just the UK in the wrong place as currently modelled. Whether we can tap into this cold or remain with scraps is the big question if this pattern change does verify?

Suppose could do really for any High Pressure and upper heights that get modelled in the Atlantic sector to not build too far East over the UK, which would suppress wintry precipitation (assuming it was cold enough). Plus, it could easily lead to the above result from those charts you posted with some of that deep cold being pushed into Scandinavia and away from the UK.

(Mind you, I would personally still choose a cool, dry, UK High over constant rainy weather from the Atlantic, particularly as longs it wasn’t a cloudy High). 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Eastern areas into the -10 uppers by the end with snow showers ☃️ 

09547A68-E457-4D00-86B5-3893263272ED.png

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04D77DF4-B2B7-4FF9-B9F9-1FEDE9D1F64E.png

You can actually see the cold front across eastern England on this map!!band of snow moving west across England and then snow showers following in from the east!absolute classic

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Best winter overview chart of the season so far from ECM at 168t. Sort of backed up by this mornings extended UKMO chart. Our team over here talk about some interesting weather to affect South Britain (  Wales to the Wash ) in the time span 168t-216 T in the form of a wave or disturbance from the SW to bring quite a bit of rainfall and possibly snowfall to higher parts later. Of course more runs needed as the jet may even push this into France but the chance of colder weather are now getting in a bit closer in the time span. Think also to be noted that the prospects of the PV heading into Northern Finland may help the course to plotting a colder outlook. Hope the change comes soon for you guys as the winter has been rotten so far for cold lover anyway. I am really more optimistic this morning by the models and discussion just had.

C

overview_20200127_00_168.jpg

With regards to the above post, the latest GFS picks up the rain for Southern England at 168 t , this in association of the developing low /wave to track towards the British Isles from the SW. Their forecast 300mb jet would take a bit further North than hinted by our team over here. Think the models this evening from ECM and UKMO may have it a bit further south, which of course would be better from a colder point of view. Still on knife edge but a favourable run again from GFS going forward especially with the trough disruption shown against the increasing cold pool to develop further to the east and north.

c

GFSOPEU06_168_4.png

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
50 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yarmouth pier here I come!:clapping::yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Oh dear, I've broken the Eleventh Commandment, Thou Shall Not Ramp!

Surely Lowestoft would be better?!

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

last chance saloon?  Would be great to hear from @Glacier Point if he things there is validity in potential HLB

aoindex.png

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Period between day 10-15 of interest. Morning EPS indicate a good support for marked cooled down for central EU with mean below -7C 850hPa, not many mild members either. This surely means HLB signal or MLB Atlantic high pressure

Capture.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
3 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Period between day 10-15 of interest. Morning EPS indicate a good support for marked cooled down for central EU with mean below -7C 850hPa, not many mild members either. This surely means HLB signal or MLB Atlantic high pressure

Capture.PNG

From a UK perspective we just need to hope that any MLB is far enough to our west to allow us to tap into the colder air

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

From a UK perspective we just need to hope that any MLB is far enough to our west to allow us to tap into the colder air

East Anglia would be possibly the spot where the colder members would appear I would think first, not sure straight northerly will be managed first,probably cold shunted to continent first with a renewed push westwards later. But we were here before, I have seen good signals below resulting in modest revenue even for here is Slovakia, there is fair distance to travel west after. But we shall see

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

A bit more support growing for a high to the west and some colder air heading south on its eastern flank .

Two issues remain though , shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic and how this is resolved and whether the UK gets a direct hit of the coldest air .

The second issue is directly related to the troughing upstream and how amplified that is and that is in turn effected by events in the Pacific .

We need to see a more negatively tilted trough or at worse neutral .

The GFS06 hrs run suggests several chances but that’s well into FI territory. 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
16 minutes ago, jules216 said:

East Anglia would be possibly the spot where the colder members would appear I would think first, not sure straight northerly will be managed first,probably cold shunted to continent first with a renewed push westwards later. But we were here before, I have seen good signals below resulting in modest revenue even for here is Slovakia, there is fair distance to travel west after. But we shall see

Good progression of the snow line on latest GFS 06z run from Russia initially then all the way to France and Belgium and knocking on the door of the rest of NW Europe by the end of the run. Albeit in fi.

Still its a positive and it's always good to get the continental landmass to our East cold first to tap into and benefit from any East or NElys down the line

20200127_124138.jpg

20200127_124200.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It's nice to see both the control and operational runs nose-diving toward Narnia, by Day 16. Though, I'd be more excited were it Day 6!:yahoo:

t850Norfolk.png    t2mNorfolk.png

But what we don't need, is 4 posh kids and a cloth lion buggering things up!:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
44 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

From a UK perspective we just need to hope that any MLB is far enough to our west to allow us to tap into the colder air

Definitely as I eluded to earlier inoreivous posts. That seems key but what drivers will that depend on to happen that's the bit I can't decipher from the charts... Can anyone suggest anything to watch please 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
On ‎23‎/‎01‎/‎2020 at 13:38, Timmytour said:

I have been comforting myself this winter with the fact that I am off skiing to Ischgl in Austria for the second week of February and would at least see some snow there!  Mind you, even that's been a worry!

But as that time comes into the range of the models, I'm reminded that when I was last there two years ago, it coincided with perhaps the best bit of winter weather we've had for many a year as the "Beast from the East" visited. By the time I returned the excitement and the snow was on its last legs.

There's just a hint in the far reaches of the models that, once again, I could miss out on a nice bit of UK winter weather. Perhaps not in the same class as 2018's week, but certainly one which, if it did materialise, would be sensational when compared to what we have endured so far this winter.

 

This is all beginning to look like UK winters have got it in for me with those GFS charts in FI coinciding with me being away yet again!  I might have to travel to Ischgl in December later this year to kick our winter in quicker!

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Seasonal wavelengths change in February. Hopefully that means our blocking forecast in 240hrs time might be more valid then in other winter months.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
33 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

This is all beginning to look like UK winters have got it in for me with those GFS charts in FI coinciding with me being away yet again!  I might have to travel to Ischgl in December later this year to kick our winter in quicker!

It’s always luck of the draw with our weather. Very difficult to know when it’ll do what. Last year we had spring in Feb, the year before snow, the year before the Atlantic switched on midmonth...

Ill be away in the southern US for business from the 19th so I can hold my wintry interest until then. After I get back I’ll be in spring mode.

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
28 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Good looking ICON at 180 and colder air heading south.

iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.f0c3dffbc1943980732bdd38a9dca09f.pngiconnh-1-180.thumb.png.8c14ac065f8763d1cd8254d99fdaf60a.png

 

Whilst that big red blob sits over Iberia there is no chance of anything other than a fleeting sideswipe (sadly).

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

The gfs seems to be making more of the low se of Greenland

image.thumb.png.21e9ba7f9c606b91a0bed08a21a4da12.png

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

The gfs seems to be making more of the low se of Greenland

image.thumb.png.21e9ba7f9c606b91a0bed08a21a4da12.png

yes it looks like that low will scutter any change of presure building in the mid Atlantic.anther topiler by the looks of it

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