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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
6 minutes ago, carinthian said:

How I would like that chart to verify for the Eastern Alps ! Colder runs always out of reach for any confidence. Certainly, the ECM run this evenings offers some hope of colder temperatures for you lot back in Blighty.

 C

 

I would like that to. Eastern Austria awaits me in Feb and that chart would be bringing the goods.

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I don't see any split in the troposperic vortex on the 12z EC,  just lobes of the vortex days 9-10, one over NW Atlantic/NE Canada the other over NE Europe/ NW Russia, with the UK in between. Still deep low heights over the arctic where the TPV is centred.

As a result, any cold N/NWly shot on the operational run could be transitory, before the ridge between the lobes or troughs of the TPV collapses and the upper flow flattens out again to westerlies or southwesterlies.

However, 12z EPS extended: ridging signal over NW Europe theme continues days 10-15

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-1336000.thumb.png.8ec13128be4b466506c18931f0b54390.png

seems rinse and repeat of a few weeks of unsettled then week of high pressure this winter. But high pressure never gaining latitude to bring proper cold. 

Cheers Nick, the ECM mean also showing no sign of a split either. Do you think our chances of a split are receding, or perhaps still to early to call. Thanks in advance. 

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

I agree.. It's nice to have frosty mornings here and there, but at this time of the season we need something more substantial and with the GEM you can see the ridge building NNE (it'll probably change tomorrow).. If we do get there, most of the time those synoptics leads to deep cold and snowfall and it's what cold lovers are craving for.

Indeed. I've just seen the GEM too. IF that did come off, it'd almost inevitably lead to cold weather as pressure rises to our North and NE and falls over Iberia

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
23 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

@Nick F 

The strat ECM has just updated - Probs not public data yet but evolves 12 hours forward nicely from the 00z

00z into 12z

92D4E280-AD54-44FD-9D3B-B64118217B52.thumb.png.63eee85942c5a64ffc618d909c30d2aa.png56216E2B-A8ED-44EB-9508-715CEDF74BA4.thumb.png.fed89bbe88f1e12684093cb1a50d8557.png

Yes Marco Petanga just tweeted something very similar. He's usually fairly coy about ramping anything. Interesting model watching going forward. 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
52 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Cheers Nick, the ECM mean also showing no sign of a split either. Do you think our chances of a split are receding, or perhaps still to early to call. Thanks in advance. 

Still signs of major stretching and possible split down the line in the stratosphere polar vortex on 12z EC day 10, how this eventually penetrates down to the troposphere remains to be seen, some mirroring there in the trop, but can't really say it's coupled all round the northern hemisphere 

Day 10 EC 10mb (stratosphere)

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-0839200.thumb.png.e6627ea40db8afcd4278bac229df1b72.png

Day 10 EC 500mb (troposphere)

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-0839200.thumb.png.dc7db28991354b7b8053fe2010e20c5a.png

Day 10 EPS trop 500mb mean

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-0904000.thumb.png.dd3e21c01fdcf9871848894fc4c685d4.png

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
51 minutes ago, DavidS said:

I would like that to. Eastern Austria awaits me in Feb and that chart would be bringing the goods.

Where abouts in Eastern Austria ? The mountains usually do well for snow with that projected flow at day 10 on ECM.

 C

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Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
15 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Where abouts in Eastern Austria ? The mountains usually do well for snow with that projected flow at day 10 on ECM.

 C

Obertauern

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

There is only 1 thing that can save it... Ie, a complete factory reset of the NH.. 

The type of the outputs the models are currently churning out (the lack of anything really cold and snowy, bar some wintry chances this week), I think it certainly does. The hard drive of the Northern Hemisphere needs formatting to SNOW32.

At least in our part of the world

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway

It gets ridiculous. How many times during the past 15 days have we seen the same set up for 240 hours??

I am starting to believe that either we are too unlucky, or there is a systematic bias of models towards that direction

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Shift that lot about 300 miles west and we'd really be in business.  Will be gone in 6 hours no doubt, so make the most of it whilst it's here!!!

image.thumb.png.a0875e12d9ae1b9c213a1dc17d0bdd98.pngimage.thumb.png.d3de252094269e168cfb022edf534c3e.png 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Funny how the 18z generally produces the BOOM charts. Again days 9-10, so can't be relied on. But the 12z EPS mean and recent operational runs of various models hint at amplification of an Atlantic ridge in this timeframe. Just so far we haven't got as amplified as the 18z GFS.

GFSOPEU18_234_1.thumb.png.98e81438a5b5a57cb3bbd209b054fd93.pngGFSOPEU18_234_2.thumb.png.42d91b2750e9d07497d9754716ad3994.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Pub run special again from the gfs

this at day ten

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.53f49c199309fb4e6b5c887bace8a9de.pnggfsnh-1-240.thumb.png.aa0447ab94983de96e9b8f3c0235e954.png

are we goin to have a cold lock -in or be kicked out early in the morning with sober heads

we find out in the morning:drunk-emoji:

what ever it is,some good eye candy showing now,are the models finally latching on to the warming showing in FL.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Potential reload from the north from 288,the op and control have been showing this for the last few days.

gfsnh-0-288.thumb.png.12f875ba59f732771fd8c8a27b535ab1.png

at least we have the lower height's into Europe on this run.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

are we goin to have a cold lock -in or be kicked out early in the morning with sober heads

we find out in the morning:drunk-emoji:

The way our luck has gone so far this wretched winter, you'd have to go for Monday morning blues after the high spirits before closing time the night before from the model output. But, you never know, our luck might change. Boy do we deserve it! Even if it's a two day northerly toppler.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Blizzards for NE Scotland.

image.thumb.png.8c360ddedea1eb44876b3f42c63265af.pngimage.thumb.png.5973e3b985a14e8cb9936a0c29477179.png

Not bad at all! Chillier 850 hPa temperatures than I expected with a wide area of -10*C 850 hPa temperatures flooding South through the UK. Would give that North-Westerly/Northerly an 8.6/10.

For a 10, some deeper, lower, 500mb heights from the Scandinavian trough to back a touch more West through the UK with the Atlantic High also backing just that little more Westwards. And while it might be a bit of a stretch, for that High to become even more amplified terminating the Vortex over Greenland. But imagine it will change again on the next run, though it has been a few runs the GFS has produced some kind of Atlantic High. At one point, one of these North-Westerly to Northerly flows has got to happen. No more hiding behind the scary depths of FI please, Northerly! There’s no need to be afraid of the UK ?‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny
6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The way our luck has gone so far this wretched winter, you'd have to go for Monday morning blues after the high spirits before closing time the night before from the model output. But, you never know, our luck might change. Boy do we deserve it! Even if it's a two day northerly toppler.

Yes, the 18z GFS is on the tease again in FI. At T276 it even takes the jet to Morocco 

I’m sure it will look exactly the same come the morning...........

Still, it proves enjoyable viewing.

4BA36BBF-3C49-4B1E-A3C4-4624969E0FA2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
8 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The way our luck has gone so far this wretched winter, you'd have to go for Monday morning blues after the high spirits before closing time the night before from the model output. But, you never know, our luck might change. Boy do we deserve it! Even if it's a two day northerly toppler.

I think the majority on here would take that if it produces snowfall and this Tue morning might deliver a flake or two and maybe some surprise somewhere in the UK

after that then we look to see if we gain more amplitude around day ten in the Atlantic.

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

Mm 18z you tease. Joking aside i think it's time us oldies had some luck. Now my prediction is the high will end up been more west and we shall have a direct northery eventually turning Easterly has the trough drops south. Snow showers for NE Scotland first moving down the east coast and eventually making the way far inland when the flow turns Easterly eventually hitting southern England with a couple of humber/wash and Thames streamers. Turning Nov/Dec 2010 in to a distant memory. We can hope can't we night all. 

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