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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Extremely frustrating ECM op with an upstream pattern that could deliver some cold to the UK but the painfully slow clearance of low pressure further se and the trailing shortwave energy a real sticking point .

The upstream troughing at day ten looks primed to send some energy se but you can see the issue if that phases with the shortwave energy sw of the UK before the pattern is sufficiently se .

Phasing is fine  if you’re feeding low heights under a high but the UK has to be in the cold air before that happens with those low heights to the south .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

Please get back to discussing the models, whether in the reliable or FI. Stop bickering or posts will disappear.

Edited by Norrance
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Going to rain Knocker  we hunt for snow and cold in the output. You and others are welcome to comment on what ever you want. The fact is that in the winter it’s what the majority do, look at the low amount of posts through the winter. If there is nothing in the reliable we go to fi for possibilities. We get you like all weather output and I like your observations. Not keen on you calling people thick.

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6DB859A8-409E-4972-9115-75DE7605FB59.png

60B51A83-DE1F-4DBA-BF1D-7C70D18ECBA5.png

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Dear oh dear. Some members have got their tight pants on tonight I see

ECM at Day 10 offers some hope. GEM sort of goes with the idea of a high building in (or, at least, towards) the Iceland area too

image.thumb.png.a189e5be4d55f653b3360662a3aab1a4.png

GFS also shows that but quickly flattens out

Doubt this will lead to anything and it's the ECM probably over-reacting to something again. Coldies can only hope the ECM is on to something. A 2 week cold spell can still rescue this abomination of a 'winter' and would be a welcome break from eternal October

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Very tentative signs in the ext EPS of the higher heights going to the north of the UK and heights over Europe edging lower though still quite high.  On its own, nothing special but in comparison to what we have seen before, a significant improvement. 

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
29 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Going to rain Knocker  we hunt for snow and cold in the output. You and others are welcome to comment on what ever you want. The fact is that in the winter it’s what the majority do, look at the low amount of posts through the winter. If there is nothing in the reliable we go to fi for possibilities. We get you like all weather output and I like your observations. Not keen on you calling people thick.

6A4F2453-79E1-485F-B8B7-8292255855AC.png

6DB859A8-409E-4972-9115-75DE7605FB59.png

 

 

Some people up north might see some snow from the charts you posted above but likely amounting to very little all the same.

Edited by Norrance
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Looking at the GEM ensembles and some eye catchers which presumably are linked to stratospheric events (you dont get GEM strat charts on meteociel) also these haven't been showing anything of interest from a cold / wintry POV for quite a while but the last few runs paired with other models showing interesting developments in the strat as myself and a few others have posted about in the strat thread begins to raise an eyebrow.. gensnh-9-1-360.thumb.png.acf6aafb6aa5c8b854c970339872c85c.png 

gensnh-10-1-384.thumb.png.4026144e19e57251149f39833e1fa55d.pnggensnh-15-1-360.thumb.png.687d48a5991305be5fcd78f28e63720f.png  there are others that show signs of vortex disruption but those the main ones from a UK perspective though of course exact details to be taken with a pinch of salt at that range.

A point to note on that, the GEM ensembles had the first signals of any model of the commotion in the strat signalling wind reversals at 60N 10mb, I posted them here a few days ago.  Trendsetter !!

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

About the MJO going neutral possibly when an SSW happens, would that be a good thing? You would think you want as few things as possible interfering in any way with an SSW, especially when the two layers of the atmosphere are so well-connected.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Given collapse of the MJO signal and strength of the sub tropical high belt at present this is the only raft setting sail from the 2019/20 winter shipwreck....

image.thumb.png.d26f019116949da3289a3e17ee6c3f3f.png

I just wonder, will a SSW be enough taking into account the MJO and subtropical high belt?

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Just now, Catacol said:

Yes. Downwelling split vortex impacts would create a -AO and expand the tropospheric vortex, shunting the Azores/Euro high away. Baby steps, early days...

Thanks.  As always, a case of waiting to see how things develop.  Good to see some interest in the outlook, after what seems an eternity!

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent

At least the GFS is showing some disruption to the high ever present in the run to a greater or less extent. What we need is for it to back further west and retrogressing, enabling more northerlies. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
22 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

No posts for a while? Have I been blocked or is there nothing at all showing??

quite defined cold clustering on the London EPS graph and GEFS just the slightest tiniest hint of troughing dropping into Europe.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

quite defined cold clustering on the London EPS graph and GEFS just the slightest tiniest hint of troughing dropping into Europe.

Yer some genuine flat liners starting to appear towards the end . 

3C27FA2F-9A9C-48F5-9843-A9F664602E37.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
On 24/01/2020 at 23:12, Geordiesnow said:

 

Looking at the shorter term prospects, subtle changes in the ECM and UKMO this evening in the 4-5 day timeframe, less influence of the azores high and more of an atlantic influence.. perhaps a sign the jet might be aligning itself on a more amplifed NW-SE position, with the end destination for heights to ridge through to the west of the UK.. marking a more concerted pattern change. GFS gets there eventually, ECM showing ridge/heights to the west building as well..

Are we seeing signs of a weakening atlantic caused by low heights anchoring over NE USA seaboard and heights building to the west... I think perhaps so..

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