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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

I've long been of the view mid-February and later are when the synoptic charts will become more interesting so no surprise that isn't reflected within the current reliable or even semi-reliable.

I'm watching strat developments with the thought late February could be interesting but it's all speculation.

In the immediate an unsettled and chillier week last week gives way to a more anticyclonic spell into February as the trough digs down to the Azores and throws the HP ridge in front of it over western Europe from Iberia to the southern British Isles. 

The 240s from the 12Z output across the models all tell a very similar tale.

The interest from the extended GFS OP is the LP sets up down near the Azores which pushes the anticyclonic cell up over the British Isles - the 850s are nothing unusual but I do wonder if we could see a fair amount of fog and frost IF we get a clearer circulation.

Control ends on quite a tantalising note with a much quieter Atlantic and perhaps a ridge stretching south from a large HP in the high Arctic.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
2 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Regarding those comments from damianslaw, must say do remember 2005 well. That 2004/05 Winter felt under-whelming overall (certainly for this area). But that mid to later part of February 2005 did bring a sudden transformation to some much colder, wintry, conditions with snow on the attack from the North and East! The below charts from the GFS archive illustrates this quite well:

628850C3-3DC6-4A86-822B-427E543C1067.thumb.png.78896e86a4423c5ea1f31c844cb6f143.png4E581F13-D572-4B9D-8B96-5FF8DBBC2CF7.thumb.png.244c800bdc33128ff3c4e703e11e43e9.png549966C9-60F2-43E5-AFE5-2AE9CE990FDB.thumb.png.34a14c5affcb5c02e59f761aab9d1c8f.png5C810EEC-F61A-4D64-B9E4-0EA808185F32.thumb.png.f6a8884b0bbb017b64e5877066920ffd.pngF2D90604-B69A-4A69-8CA3-C9A02E4262D2.thumb.png.ca3802542074031556f2a3bd5b68589a.png4168ECE3-9591-4AD4-8AB6-D8422695D119.thumb.png.92f698044e6418f50a1d444f7c460587.pngE4E3FD4C-B07C-4CFE-B460-DA1CCEFD74F1.thumb.png.0fde478ddbd772d2ac0192b93edef7e4.png5A2D0317-C89D-4B4A-9C36-86FE36FF22A7.thumb.png.82cded01d979e631f4e578b327294a6e.png72B94905-3D61-493A-9EFB-712B0E5BAB30.thumb.png.ce183498acf903e4de145afc159612be.png4E14AF3A-2151-428C-A534-341F7BECAFFA.thumb.png.3f422171bffd55da8cc08ab5ef953dc2.png9AE49197-CA64-4D84-B149-436CE468600E.thumb.png.56f36e067f792a306d6c7bea36747ed7.png1623EB4D-A3BB-4287-92CD-268EF989BD87.thumb.png.c88133ede67b2f7c0de202637166c461.png
This setup didn’t really bring more than around a cm or two of the sparkly, white, stuff. However, synoptically, the Northern blocking was pretty impressive, and the Easterly/North-Easterlies lasted a fair while. 

It may be possible that should the likes of the GFS continue to model some kind of UK High within the next 2 weeks and there can be room for it to shift further North (a weakening Vortex to help with this), then repeats like late February 2005, March 2013 etc isn’t totally infeasible. Albeit the latter in particular being a hard feat to achieve. Plus, would need other models to start showing signs for a UK High to develop, or maybe just having some kind of ridging developing in the mid-Atlantic. As a starting point anyway. 

I’m sure there would unlikely to be anything better for the cold and snow weather fans than to see the European High get flushed away down Netweather’s large loo.  If not, a good ol’ kick up towards the North of the UK would do nicely for that fiendish High!

For the cold weather, that light at the end of the tunnel is certainly needed.Perhaps the current roll out of the 12Z ECMWF could slip in a cold surprise towards the end. Although, even next week, while nothing too impressive, looks to be chilly for a time with models showing a Westerly to North-Westerly airstream bringing a possible wintry mix of weather at times. Most especially, but not necessarily exclusively, for Northern and Western high ground.

Wasn't this spell actually record breaking for bringing the longest continuous period for snow falling somewhere in the UK each day (albeit nothing more than flurries for most)

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
12 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Wasn't this spell actually record breaking for bringing the longest continuous period for snow falling somewhere in the UK each day (albeit nothing more than flurries for most)

Yes I think it was over two weeks of snow falling, I was living in Sussex then and although it snowed on many days  the temps weren’t great for settling on low ground although the Downs looked great.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee
25 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Wasn't this spell actually record breaking for bringing the longest continuous period for snow falling somewhere in the UK each day (albeit nothing more than flurries for most)

Feb 1947 had snow falling somewhere in the UK on every day so not a record. Anyway back to the models please.

Ta.

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

Wow, take a look at the ECM 240, the 1025mb isobar around the Mediterranean High stretches from the Channel Coast at Normandy to the deep Sahara, I reckon that's over 2000miles! That is one Monster Bartlett that isn't going anywhere.

You can also bet that's one ECM 10 day chart that is sure to verify.

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

There appears to be an increasing tendency in readers posts, to be ignoring what is happening in the here and now, and instead looking at what might happen in 10 days time, which always perplexes me.. sign of the time I think.. no-one seems to be 'in the present'...

With this in mind, we do have a change on the cards from Sunday, for the north some what I would call proper cold air for 2-3 days about to move in, sub 528 dam air, thicknesses right side of marginal for snow I think down to quite low levels under any trough features which are being programmed - good to look at the FAX charts in these situations. Indeed first time this season I've bothered to look at them...

Alas longer term its a shortlived polar maritime airstream before the omi-present azores high ridges back into the UK.

Feels good to be able to mention the snow word..

Those away from the north and north west, I sense will not be interested in the upcoming spell.. but its good to see a change in airstreams from the perpetual tropical maritime, or anticyclonic gloom..

We saw similiar synoptics mid December, and they produced low level snow here.. 2 inches.

You would be correct in your theory that those of us in the south aren't interested since historically speaking short-lived northerlies or North westerlies seldom produce anything for us snow starved dwellers as by the time they get going, the shows all over before its even begun. So, effectively, nothing changes from what falls from the skies and we are merely waiting for the event to finish so that we can start the hunt for snow, cold, proper winter, whatever you want to call it again. The next GFS run will be awaited eagerly by some. 

Edited by Snowfish2
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
5 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Wow, take a look at the ECM 240, the 1025mb isobar around the Mediterranean High stretches from the Channel Coast at Normandy to the deep Sahara, I reckon that's over 2000miles! That is one Monster Bartlett that isn't going anywhere.

You can also bet that's one ECM 10 day chart that is sure to verify.

Andy

As said concentrate on the shorter term, promising for some wintry fayre around here at least.. 

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

spacer.pngGFS 18z @ t84 ( decent uppers that could deliver)

spacer.pngGFS 18z @ t84

As damianslaw correctly points out , there is plenty to be interested about in terms of snow potential Mon 27th - Wed 29th

( especially for Ireland , Scotland , Wales and Northern England with a bit of altitude.

spacer.pngt 84

spacer.pngt 96

Edited by Jeremy Shockey
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

watching this end of GFS closely - could be a retrograde block come 372 - and you know i will post the chart if it does!

Edited by Mapantz
removed hidden quote
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yep! - Here she comes.

image.thumb.png.40216c3af3e67e697602df8a4bbce3ed.png

Yer I see you .

7AED4606-60D5-48B5-9F08-58AF1E3B3CB1.png

6CBA96B9-0BF6-4CF6-9893-04A215F2358F.png

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yep! - Here she comes.

image.thumb.png.40216c3af3e67e697602df8a4bbce3ed.png

Ship ahoy... Tha she blows.. Vortex on the move big time Feb. 

And its moving out of Greenland with a push of heights nudging to the South. 

gfsnh-0-342.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Ship ahoy... Tha she blows.. Vortex on the move big time Feb. 

gfsnh-0-342.png

Yes - a bit too far East but -8c into Scotland with -14c not too far away and sub -20c poised over Iceland.

image.thumb.png.e0fdec173627ceb04e9bd08305a0a5d4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

WOnder if this is a QTR - anyhow - if we could get to here we would be staring down the barrel of a severely cold late winter / Early spring.

image.thumb.png.57ca0de3de2024d5133d379dc103c58f.png

 

 

Few more frames and we'd be looking at a split too. 

 

Screenshot_20200124_231022_com.android.chrome.thumb.jpg.25b06674fa4981450ce682a97c561e11.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

There appears to be an increasing tendency in readers posts, to be ignoring what is happening in the here and now, and instead looking at what might happen in 10 days time, which always perplexes me.. sign of the time I think.. no-one seems to be 'in the present'...

With this in mind, we do have a change on the cards from Sunday, for the north some what I would call proper cold air for 2-3 days about to move in, sub 528 dam air, thicknesses right side of marginal for snow I think down to quite low levels under any trough features which are being programmed - good to look at the FAX charts in these situations. Indeed first time this season I've bothered to look at them...

Alas longer term its a shortlived polar maritime airstream before the omi-present azores high ridges back into the UK.

Feels good to be able to mention the snow word..

Those away from the north and north west, I sense will not be interested in the upcoming spell.. but its good to see a change in airstreams from the perpetual tropical maritime, or anticyclonic gloom..

We saw similiar synoptics mid December, and they produced low level snow here.. 2 inches.

Problem I see is that snowfall will probably be limited to the higher ground, partly thanks to warmer than average SSTS that are no doubt around. If the - 8 hpa was forecast to hit, more would be interested but too me, snowfall looks very limited to lower levels for the most part. 

Of course as ever the details are subject to change so any kink or trough that develops which may help to bring snowfall down to lower levels may help to increase any excitement in an otherwise underwhelming output. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

A good run from the gfs this and at the end of the run another reload from north of Iceland,that's two runs on the trot now with the gfs showing a more amplified pattern towards the end

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.f17a4bfde1fb5435ff596dbc319fa8d1.pnggfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.0be3ff92becfe099b36e9f1693b34448.png

the pv looks to have had it's final say this winter too and on this run the warming was much bigger over the states

hands up pv!!!,you are surrounded. 

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

I no it’s pointless even commenting on the far reaches of fi but the whole lot is too Far East on these latest gfs charts for my liking so even if it did come off (which it won’t) it would still probably be pretty crap for the uk unless it was all that bit further west come the time.

id say next week would be better looking at as it’s got much more chances of giving a few nice surprises that outer reaches of the gfs pup special 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The control has a happy ending too but will we be happy come the time!

gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.543b8c3a6de19dc84ced0c2a72696b63.png

the ens are a mess so lots to be resolved if we want a cold spell in Feb.

graphe3_1000_264_26___.thumb.png.c2fca58613f7114472a1076c9db2747f.png

lets just focus on this week ahead as i am sure something will pop up and surprises us all.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

And the last one from me to dream on...

P6 JFF.

anim_rio4.thumb.gif.108c7277b949bae0fe7fa25fd443942c.gifanim_pie8.thumb.gif.1063b195fabd927da59b519d400a7306.gif

no pressure

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
20 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

I no it’s pointless even commenting on the far reaches of fi but the whole lot is too Far East on these latest gfs charts for my liking so even if it did come off (which it won’t) it would still probably be pretty crap for the uk unless it was all that bit further west come the time.

id say next week would be better looking at as it’s got much more chances of giving a few nice surprises that outer reaches of the gfs pup special 

Can;t see it other than a cm of slush in one or 2 places.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Can;t see it other than a cm of slush in one or 2 places.

It's better than the non slush that we have had so far,i would settle for some white stuff falling out of the sky,in fact I think almost anywhere in the UK might see something white falling out of the sky next week Feb

final_synop_2_2020012412_87.thumb.jpg.681d228da9d8f168cf5963d7e45e370b.jpgfinal_synop_2_2020012412_93.thumb.jpg.cd9fb7d2e48cac021a49594b161c5609.jpgfinal_synop_2_2020012412_96.thumb.jpg.b4b6907961f1dfe17482a94ce1e5d633.jpgfinal_synop_2_2020012412_99.thumb.jpg.9ef0669f1460fb056a1e6dc52012c451.jpgfinal_synop_2_2020012412_102.thumb.jpg.7263086ece1c2c51cba4e06fa352d622.jpgfinal_synop_2_2020012412_105.thumb.jpg.06bba0c4303831768516e13710db08d6.jpgfinal_synop_2_2020012412_111.thumb.jpg.9629b0f09e485a433924dbf9707493b0.jpgfinal_synop_2_2020012412_117.thumb.jpg.b7185adf8f9bfd7ea5314beccaee8490.jpgfinal_synop_2_2020012412_120.thumb.jpg.4093d9febfb27cec02ae7cc1e0477401.jpgfinal_synop_2_2020012412_129.thumb.jpg.9468f8a4fe930399c0a106f899806d42.jpg

blimey! i am blinded by all that pink snow

could be a good PM shot this and could be the starter to the main course as we go into February. 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
50 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Problem I see is that snowfall will probably be limited to the higher ground, partly thanks to warmer than average SSTS that are no doubt around. If the - 8 hpa was forecast to hit, more would be interested but too me, snowfall looks very limited to lower levels for the most part. 

Of course as ever the details are subject to change so any kink or trough that develops which may help to bring snowfall down to lower levels may help to increase any excitement in an otherwise underwhelming output. 

I think the SST values to the NW are colder than average, and the source of air is coming from a cold Pole. 

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