Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[tight isobar]

are we on the verge  of a snap bang -wallop  situation! !?.

where upper ramifications /outer  telecons. .

are in a similar  sequence  just as we get a 'possible ' first eyed  peek @winter. ..frfrom as usually  undesirable  plot /polaratlantic. . (if ya like )?..

and our- locked in format  drops as the lag effective  also starts  process! !??..

as some posts I've read. ....something  is brewing! !!...

#I'm sure here

Edited January 23, 2020 by tight isobar

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

That'll be my latest cup of tea

I've just finished mine but I think I'll have another one now 

[SqueakheartLW]

3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Just to show a little more detail compared to the other models, here's the UKV:

 

Not worth getting hung up on these, as it will change, a lot!

If that one comes off. Smack bang right on top of where I live in North Lincolnshire. Will I finally be able to declare this a winter with some snowflakes instead of totally snow free as it has been for me so far

[SqueakheartLW]

Here's a look at Tuesday night into Wednesday next week from 12z GFS

Look at all that snow for central, southern and some eastern areas.

The stratosphere also looks interesting at +384 hours too at 10hpa

The warm region over Canada is the remains of the first warming but a new one is appearing over eastern Europe. If it merges with the other one we could be waving bye bye to the polar vortex very quickly.

[chris55]

1 hour ago, chris55 said:

I’m liking UKMO but for a different reason (though it could work in tandem with your thinking)

That little ridge building between the low pressure systems to our west is our next shot (albeit slim) of something colder setting up. At 144 there is plenty of time for upgrades/changes. GFS shows a similar ridge and just flattens it but at this range there is at least a ‘pinch’ of potential.

I’m quoting myself lol 

ECM completely un-interested in the little ridge at 144

 

HOWEVER....it has a similar idea at 192 leading to a much more favourable set up at 240.....let’s hope something can finally punch through and disrupt the zonal flow and upset the pattern!

192-240

 

 

 

 

 

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

I’m quoting myself lol 

ECM completely un-interested in the little ridge at 144

 

HOWEVER....it has a similar idea at 192 leading to a much more favourable set up at 240.....let’s hope something can finally punch through and disrupt the zonal flow and upset the pattern!

192-240

 

 

 

 

 

FWIW, if we are to see a change then it’s going to be awhile before it’s seen in the ecm as I can’t see anything of note for the next 14 days or so. Hope I’m wrong

[BlueHedgehog074]

How I wish this run the GFS showed from Wednesday night last week for both tomorrow and Saturday could have come off!

I knew it was probably unlikely to happen. There could have been a chance to see heavy snow showers from an impressively potent North-Westerly to Northerly flow slamming into numerous areas of the UK for the next 2 to 3 days. Was even hoping having a break from the models after that 18Z run was produced that this sort of scenario would have made it down to the 24 - 48 hour mark. 

However, from returning to looking at the latest runs, it’s a tragic tale for wintry weather tomorrow and Saturday

I should have known. These North-Westerly flows don’t often make it to 00 hours without much watering down... like with other cold weather. Some exceptions, though. It’s why filling hopes up too much can lead to disappointments. And avoiding getting too drawn in by individual operational runs. Just too good to be true (I suspect one day, a very potent Polar Maritime to Arctic Maritime flow like that will happen again. At some point. Could either still be this Winter, or another one). 

The latest GFS 12Z run above though showing the mid-Atlantic High eradicated. And the North-Westerly flow wiped out. Looks like now High Pressure over the UK gradually slipping away to the East during next few days, and Low Pressure taking over from the West/North-West. The High Pressure has at least brought about some drier, brighter weather for a time and been good for going out on the odd walk or two (even though the weather has become murkier). To be fair, also, this Sunday could see some wintry showers for some North-Western spots of the UK, as the 5th and 6th charts above shows -5/-6*C 850 hPa temperatures trying to pile into Ireland and Western Scotland.

Additionally, there is a possible chance that Monday’s evening/night Low (its exact track and how developed it becomes, whether it happens at all, not all sorted yet) could offer some rain, sleet and snow to places. Maybe strong winds too. And the general Westerly flow that the models show could follow on after, may be chilly enough to produce a wintry mix of showers at times next week. Probably mostly for high ground and especially towards Northern parts of the UK. Not all is lost yet for those of us after something white. 

Could be better still when you consider how this Winter has been shaping up for snowy weather, and it all does look rather marginal. To think at one point there could have been a chance (albeit likely a lowish one) for snow to greet a number of us tomorrow and/or Saturday, in some ways adds to the tragedy.

For those wanting it, I think some possibilities of wintry weather for early to mid next week is still better than nothing. Despite again, it may not amount to much away from high ground. Although I’d be happy just to take anything, with the way the weather has been behaving. 

A very testing Winter so far it has been for some, however I guess it may be worth reminding ourselves that there can be a lot more to life than the snow. (But I emphasise when you’ve had a bad day, feel lonely, or there’s a lack of excitement in a person’s life, things like wintry weather becomes one of the few things that’s appealing ). Just gotta keep ‘em glasses half full

[Catacol]

8 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

woah, that's pretty disappointing for coldies.

However the short/mid term models only support this point of view until well into February. ECM clusters this morning tell the same story as they have for days. Blues to the north / yellows+oranges to the south mean a likely strengthening of a westerly regime compared to the norm.

However, just for the next few weeks, even a small wrap-around low can possibly introduce enough cold air from the north for just a few hours to bring snow for some:

  

Yes marginal setups for high ground will continue to offer flakes, but westerlies will always do that...

JMA weeklies add to the gloom. Weeks 3/4 Euro high and low pressure controlling high latitudes. Nothing to deliver the slap in the face yet...

[Geordiesnow]

Glad too see the GFS deep mega lows have been binned now, was quite comical too see even if the potential for a deep low was there but all models now agree it will be a shallow affair so no excitement there. 

Slight changes in the output as perhaps more polar maritime air could be forecast, just nothing overly cold and the ECM is keen on bringing those SW'lies in again. Slight wedge of heights leaving the Arctic has been picked up on recent runs but the affects on our weather looks minimal at best. 

[damianslaw]

A couple more days of anticyclonic gloom.. then a return to the westerlies, with every chance of some wintry precipitation down to relatively low levels in the north early next week - all models are showing quite cold uppers.

A split then occurs, UKMO showing a wedge of heights behind the low, which could change the atlantic profile aligning jet on a more NW-SE angle, ECM quickly builds in azores heights but then shows a similiar scenario to UKMO - indeed a negatively tilted trough - not been able to say that all winter. GFS doesn't show the wedge just heights languishing to the south, but in far reaches does shake up the atlantic profile.

Will be pleased to see the back of the current high - it has orientated itself in the worse position for anything sunny, cold and frosty, or even especially mild..

Signals are also emerging that the PV is about to undergo a splintering effect, allowing perhaps more ridge/wedge development inbetween low pressures, something that hasn't been able to happen all winter so far.

[PiscesStar]

3 hours ago, That ECM said:

Considering the snow line follows the m4 its bound to be right

Of course it be and those snow starved south easterners will enjoy freezing rain (Kent dweller here) 

Edited January 23, 2020 by Snowfish2

[shaky]

Any update on the snow for monday on the 18z icon and 18z gfs!!still there or blown away like usual?

[feb1991blizzard]

EC46 is default EC46.

[Wilxy]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EC46 is default EC46.

Thank you very helpful!

[Tim Bland]

Snow right down to the south coast on 18z GFS Tues eve. 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, TomW said:

Thank you very helpful!

Means its mild atlantic driven weather until W5 when there is a very slight ridge thrown up.

[LRD]

Here comes the dross...

You couldn't draw a worse winter chart

[Wilxy]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Means its mild atlantic driven weather until W5 when there is a very slight ridge thrown up.

Rinse and repeat pattern, at least this time there might be more polar maritime air in the mix unlike the first half where it was constantly over 10°C here in the south!

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Means its mild atlantic driven weather until W5 when there is a very slight ridge thrown up.

Looks pretty settled last third feb but way too far away .......

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, TomW said:

Rinse and repeat pattern, at least this time there might be more polar maritime air in the mix unlike the first half where it was constantly over 10°C here in the south!

I still think the displacement SSW will have an effect whether it turns out to be a minor or major warming but i think it will only manifest itself in the trop as PM or topplers (at least initially with more potential perhaps in March)

[Jordan S]

Models have definitely trended away from a very deep low for Monday and instead limit its development as a wave depression the energy seems to be separated in the mid Atlantic one going south into Spain/France the other moving over southern England bringing heavy rain mabye some wintriness on hills if this is modelled to be further north in coming days then the risk of snow for more Northern areas as well as strong winds for the south still something to keep an eye on. 

Ecmwf..

Gfs..

Ecmwf and Gfs show this developing into a more closed area of low pressure once it leaves the uk. 

Gem..

Keeps the low south of the uk with lows to the north being the dominant feature for all bringing disturbances across the UK with heavy rain and perhaps some snow on the northern edge of these. 

Still uncertainty atm so details likely to change frequently in the next day or so regarding that lows depth track. 

Edited January 23, 2020 by jordan smith

[BlueHedgehog074]

54 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any update on the snow for monday on the 18z icon and 18z gfs!!still there or blown away like usual?

Looks like the 18Z ICON has two areas of precipitation. The first part on Monday night (showing to be just rain) missing us to the South going through South-Eastern UK. A more pronounced disturbance early on Tuesday brings an area of rain through the Midlands, perhaps with the odd bit of wintriness on high ground.

 

The GFS 18Z run being a party pooper for snow on Monday too. Rain across the South of the UK (again, missing us in the Midlands), but a chance for some wintry showers to tuck in behind early Tuesday.

Not checked the other models, but could be enough time for some of the models, such as the GFS, to bring our Monday snow back to life. (You know your want to, models. And don’t forget the areas to the South of that devious M4 )

(Edit: Just noticed Jordan Smith’s post above. Goes into some interesting detail regarding Monday) 

Edited January 23, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[Allseasons-Si]

Sorry,too late to the party but there is some interest in the latter stages of the 18z gefs ens,all JFF as we know

but firstly the control run has a nice northerly

P 9 and 16

the ens still look underwhelming though but at least there is some eye candy starting to show

what have we done to deserve this mild dross of a winter,surely it cannot get any worse,i think i will take up painting and watching it dry,jeeeeeeeeze!!!!

the IOD (Indian Ocean Disease) has done the damage so far lol.

 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

My thoughts tonight are we have been in a waiting game for winter to fully start. Ecm looks very interesting to me day 8/9/10 it's got a look about it that's strange. But my feeling is the deep cold in the North West is primed. I really think this winter will end very cold and snowy. From early Feb onwards is my prediction. Regards to next week's cool North westerly it's just a cool down to the main event. You heard it here first. 

[IDO]

If only in Summer:

JFF>>>  

At this range, not that it matters, but deja vu again, repeating pattern if it verifies. Certainly heights building in UK sector is the de facto current thinking for early Feb and like Jan maybe pushing that CET into +3c above mean? This run the high is stopped from pushing north due to pressure on the Pacific side. All subject to change at this range as to high placement but based on this winter's story, the above seems a good possibility.