Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[weirpig]

Just to put a bit of meat on the bones   The icon either brings  damaging windspeeds  Or snow  to most of England/ Wales   take your pick   

        

Edited January 23, 2020 by weirpig

[IDO]

GFS 06z blows up the low post-UK exit so we miss the main force of that storm:

The cold front mainly rain but maybe back-edge snow with altitude up north. Though usual suspects as per settling-snow chart:

T114>  T138> 

Nice steady cold flow following so further chances especially for NW Scotland and where the colder uppers push through. So a bit of an upgrade, with 3+ days of colder westerly's:

Not snow'maggedon, but worthy of a mention in the hope it verifies?

[IDO]

Interesting to see the whole NH modelled in a cold zonal flow with that bottled up cold just looking to leak south, we can see the cold-fingers on these charts:

That ties in with the background signals still working but unable to conquer the strat-trop forcing, ergo no progressive amplification of those waves, with the westerly flow cycling round mid-latitudes on a continuous loop.

[mb018538]

ECM extended - very disappointing for the next 10-12 days:




There is a high pressure cluster appearing at the end of the run today, but hard to say at that range if it's just noise or a trend. Biggest cluster still going for continuation of Atlantic driven westerlies.

[jules216]

Europe going in to freezer next week :))) Uppers as low as -8C reaching northern Finland by the end of January, brace yourselves 

[IDO]

A trade-off for the slower westerly flow that gives us a longer colder flow also means the alternating warm sectors will reflect that, D10-11:

JFF but within the bounds of possibilities.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Early to be writing off the season as the current momentum surge may yet have positive consequences, and a greater chance of blocking in March given the timing of the next Pacific wave is distinctly possible, but my own feeling as of today is that we are pretty much done for this cold season now. I can see a Euro High dominated February on the horizon. Here’s hoping for a slap in the face.

woah, that's pretty disappointing for coldies.

However the short/mid term models only support this point of view until well into February. ECM clusters this morning tell the same story as they have for days. Blues to the north / yellows+oranges to the south mean a likely strengthening of a westerly regime compared to the norm.

However, just for the next few weeks, even a small wrap-around low can possibly introduce enough cold air from the north for just a few hours to bring snow for some:

  

[feb1991blizzard]

Here comes another wild goose chase............

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Lets hope so!

 

06z A fairway south on the track at 84- could be a midlands direct hit like the ICON

Further nudges southward to come?  Could be a few more felled trees and fences for southern areas again.

 

I agree with Catacol as have always thought Jan and Feb would suffer with wrong place HP cells for proper cold.  Feb not here yet but these patterns generally last well into Feb when set in like now.  But I too can see a pretty cold Spring coming

BFTP

 

Edited January 23, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[feb1991blizzard]

Big reversal at top.

[Tim Bland]

Some potential at last ....

[Lampostwatcher]

6z scandy high for when the kids break up

[Methuselah]

But, sadly, not enough 'potential' to prevent me from coming over all sleepy, all of a sudden!

    

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Hello Monday !!

 

[SMU]

I will stick around for Feb seeing as technically we can still see good snowfall for another 6-8 weeks-

 

PTB 19 was the pick of the Ensembles setting up a very decent cold spell towards the end !

[IDO]

45 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Some potential at last ....

Not much support from the ensembles, joining the small noise (ATM) cluster. The mean:

 

Would need the op to run with this for 10 days plus and be joined by the ensembles. Note to watch, but as it stands very nominal possibilities. The Scandi pressure charts shows op as a whopping outlier in FI^^^ The mean significantly lower.

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Hello Monday !!

 

Ouch. In North Lincolnshire. Looks like I only just miss out on that by miles

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

But, sadly, not enough 'potential' to prevent me from coming over all sleepy, all of a sudden!

    

What a shame that this chart is 384 hours away

[SqueakheartLW]

2 hours ago, weirpig said:

Just to put a bit of meat on the bones   The icon either brings  damaging windspeeds  Or snow  to most of England/ Wales   take your pick   

        

Hope that bottom wind chart is kmph and not mph or else the SE corner will be flattened

[Selliso]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

Hope that bottom wind chart is kmph and not mph or else the SE corner will be flattened

Definitely km/h

[Eskimo]

GEM has Monday's system further south



JMA has it as some sort of wave rather than an enclosed system



ECM has something similar, it to further south as a smaller feature mostly affecting the Channel and northern France 



NAVGEM, again, a similar feature with the winds mainly affecting France.



Definitely a chance of snowfall across the UK. 

Edited January 23, 2020 by PerfectStorm
wdwde

[Timmytour]

I have been comforting myself this winter with the fact that I am off skiing to Ischgl in Austria for the second week of February and would at least see some snow there!  Mind you, even that's been a worry!

But as that time comes into the range of the models, I'm reminded that when I was last there two years ago, it coincided with perhaps the best bit of winter weather we've had for many a year as the "Beast from the East" visited. By the time I returned the excitement and the snow was on its last legs.

There's just a hint in the far reaches of the models that, once again, I could miss out on a nice bit of UK winter weather. Perhaps not in the same class as 2018's week, but certainly one which, if it did materialise, would be sensational when compared to what we have endured so far this winter.

 

[nick sussex]

Both the ECM and GFS show quite a lot of energy digging south into the Atlantic .

The day ten ECM op isn’t too bad , that even shows the PV becoming a bit more disrupted .

The problems been getting these day ten charts to survive and count down .

 

 

[Tim Bland]

Icon for Monday night...

[A Frayed Knot]

20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Icon for Monday night...

Rain? Sleet? Snow? Ain't got a clue, can someone explain please thanks.