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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

As others have commented, ECM offering something a bit different in the 5-7 day timeframe with a more southerly tracking jet, enabling cold uppers to flood northern half of UK which would increase risk of relatively low level snow for some. However, it then follows GFS in bringing the azores high back into play, and its back to square one, with a mild SW flow, and the jet reverting more to a SW-NE pattern.

GFS is showing some colder polar maritime airflow by Sunday into north as well, lasting a couple of days or so.

Can't see any real shake up of the pattern of the winter so far as we move into February, perhaps a slightly more amplified flow, with the azores high ridging NE, then backing away to the SW, with a westerly then shortlived dig of NW air, before it comes back again. A typical atlantic pattern.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

As others have commented, ECM offering something a bit different in the 5-7 day timeframe with a more southerly tracking jet, enabling cold uppers to flood northern half of UK which would increase risk of relatively low level snow for some. However, it then follows GFS in bringing the azores high back into play, and its back to square one, with a mild SW flow, and the jet reverting more to a SW-NE pattern.

GFS is showing some colder polar maritime airflow by Sunday into north as well, lasting a couple of days or so.

Can't see any real shake up of the pattern of the winter so far as we move into February, perhaps a slightly more amplified flow, with the azores high ridging NE, then backing away to the SW, with a westerly then shortlived dig of NW air, before it comes back again. A typical atlantic pattern.

 

A stuck record and an incredibly boring song at that 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Anyone got a bucket?

cfs-0-540.png?00

CFS I know, but even the Cold Forecasting System isn't showing any luck for winter weather (although that may be a blessing). That chart looks like February has done a trade deal with early December!

A week later - another super high anyone?:

cfs-0-714.png?00

 

All eyes on the 18Z GFS...

Edit: Don't look at the 18Z GFS.

Edited by MP-R
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

I see after a few good GFS suites,the strat event is slowly fizzling out into another minor displacement one albeit this time into a more favourable position.

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

18z ensembles suite for South Yorkshire make of it what you will

graphe3_1000_277_22___.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
6 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

18z is HORRIFIC.... 

 

It's like an eternity in hell with a conveyor belt of azores high rubbish PV refusing to budge.

In a nutshell, truly awful as if you were  stuck in a nightmare where there's no way out..... Mother in law stays  for the weekend and then stays a week..... Only FAR WORSE..... 

The mornings runs can only be BOOOOOOOM charts then. 

Think positive normally when the pub run is good the mornings are crap. 

So you never no.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Another day, another set of useless runs. Perhaps a little bit of wintriness over high ground early next week, before it turns milder with SW'erlies once more.

No signal for anything drier and more settled returning in the near future either.

image.thumb.png.174c91b862e0b4d8208ab6dcc40c9338.pngimage.thumb.png.9e6fca538b460b48e69f4a5f43032581.png

Might have to chuck in another above average prediction in the Feb CET competition. Been on the money so far for Dec and Jan, easy game this! 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
8 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I see after a few good GFS suites,the strat event is slowly fizzling out into another minor displacement one albeit this time into a more favourable position.

Yes, I rarely bother with SSW watching as it is as bad as D10 ECM charts or the Pub Run, rarely verifying in a way we need for long-term cold. Cohen has been suggesting that it will be a minor event for a week or so.

As for my locale for the next two weeks, above average as a whole: graphe6_1000_294_148___.thumb.png.1349fdd3a82d8add72609d83669a7e98.png

A January CET of >3.0c above average looks close.

Much of the same into late in FI, the mean suggests the main tPV returning to our NW, so maybe the jet further south, and possibly an underlying cooler flow on a NW to SE axis, or close to:

mean D16>1639242516_gensnh-21-1-384(4).thumb.png.9e3b1dc11841514f8609445fca1fc917.png MJO>819742076_ensplume_full(1).thumb.gif.a13d1143f8bf5bcfcd900a77dd11297c.gif

Other than that, zero blocking, no sign of the current MJO signal after the 10-day lag, no sign of the tPV waning or any disrupt between strat-trop coupling. The forecast MJO dying in 6, COD back to 5 at low amplitude, and maybe signs back to 1 late on?

For most, maybe a cool(cold) day here and there, up north and higher ground some transient snow, before the accompanying warm sector melts. Rain at times and with the tPV chunk sliding west to east to our north any satellite low runners close to the jet could intensify so maybe stormy at times. More late Autumnal than winter synoptic really.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester

More dreadful output for winter fans, and the teleconnections are not supportive of any change. I think it was Glacier Point who suggested a change in early Feb, but I would think that is off the table now.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, IDO said:

Yes, I rarely bother with SSW watching as it is as bad as D10 ECM charts or the Pub Run, rarely verifying in a way we need for long-term cold. Cohen has been suggesting that it will be a minor event for a week or so.

As for my locale for the next two weeks, above average as a whole: graphe6_1000_294_148___.thumb.png.1349fdd3a82d8add72609d83669a7e98.png

A January CET of >3.0c above average looks close.

Much of the same into late in FI, the mean suggests the main tPV returning to our NW, so maybe the jet further south, and possibly an underlying cooler flow on a NW to SE axis, or close to:

mean D16>1639242516_gensnh-21-1-384(4).thumb.png.9e3b1dc11841514f8609445fca1fc917.png MJO>819742076_ensplume_full(1).thumb.gif.a13d1143f8bf5bcfcd900a77dd11297c.gif

Other than that, zero blocking, no sign of the current MJO signal after the 10-day lag, no sign of the tPV waning or any disrupt between strat-trop coupling. The forecast MJO dying in 6, COD back to 5 at low amplitude, and maybe signs back to 1 late on?

For most, maybe a cool(cold) day here and there, up north and higher ground some transient snow, before the accompanying warm sector melts. Rain at times and with the tPV chunk sliding west to east to our north any satellite low runners close to the jet could intensify so maybe stormy at times. More late Autumnal than winter synoptic really.

Wonder how long before you write a post that talks about bitterly cold Continental Arctic Air flooding over the country.Keep the faith.

Cant believe no model is showing any sign of a change.This constant pattern of High pressure over Eastern canada driving  the cold air over the Atlantic ,keeps firing up the jet,lots of winters ruined when this pattern gets stuck.

Edited by SLEETY
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52 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

More dreadful output for winter fans, and the teleconnections are not supportive of any change. I think it was Glacier Point who suggested a change in early Feb, but I would think that is off the table now.

Nothing what was suggested for Jan has occured as the focus was from Eastern blocking - maybe the torpedo is still circulating.

The only winter forecasts that have been amy good are the seasonal ones & what Tamara put out in November - December.

 

Anyway a nasty storm developing at day 5 with the potential for heavy rain & storm force winds with the added bonus of blizzards for some >150M

Edited by Steve Murr
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON 06z brings the storm tracking across the South Midlands out past EA- Thats a damaging system.

4C80F5D8-2356-4B60-ABCD-C0406C504079.thumb.png.3086d5169d8bf583f38ebc64f935c232.png

Usual caveats too with these charts but snow for quite a few too with the system on Icon.

iconeu_uk1-1-108-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.

GFS 00Z MONDAY

Winters back.

h500slp.thumb.png.623bcfe8c8cec4b6881358db9f85b02e.png

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.233572335c1e00ce9c3483b9cd15d5ce.png

ukgust.thumb.png.b494dfe5f6fb3c77641b4cb38f7a9a7e.png

More like it.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, the dog-end of the GFS 00Z paints (to me at least) a very interesting situation: the extent of >+5C uppers looks very large, for the time of year, and the temperature gradient (+5 to -5C) appears to be very steep, across pretty-much the entire chart...No wonder places such as Newfoundland have experienced such monumental snow falls? And, as prospects for a major SSW subside...

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

I wonder what'll happen, once the tPV starts to autodestruct...?:search:

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Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway
1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Well, the dog-end of the GFS 00Z paints (to me at least) a very interesting situation: the extent of >+5C uppers looks very large, for the time of year, and the temperature gradient (+5 to -5C) appears to be very steep, across pretty-much the entire chart...No wonder places such as Newfoundland have experienced such monumental snow falls? And, as prospects for a major SSW subside...

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

I wonder what'll happen, once the tPV starts to autodestruct...?:search:

a major ssw is not forseen at the moment.......

 

image.thumb.png.fad4db70759cd2e569731eb615633e8e.png

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

spacer.pngGEFS 0z

spacer.pngGFS 0z @ 150

spacer.pngGFS 0z @150

Some snow likely for some between Mon 27th and Wed 29th ( especially over 150 m ).

in fairness to GFS it has hinted at this in the modelling for 10 days now.

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8 minutes ago, Catacol said:

The Pacific convection cycle has worked as expected, and actually the current spike would be above expectations and a cold lover’s best case scenario if the vortex hadn’t strengthened and coupled as it did. The forecasts and hopecasts didn’t expect such a swift vortex intensification and dominance of the pattern. Clearly the seasonal modelling correctly predicted that intensification this time around, and sustained IO forcing in the flatter phases of the MJO profile served to enhance/support that situation. Perhaps also too little emphasis was given to the still weakly positive QBO in December. Cold winters from wQBO Decembers are rare.

Early to be writing off the season as the current momentum surge may yet have positive consequences, and a greater chance of blocking in March given the timing of the next Pacific wave is distinctly possible, but my own feeling as of today is that we are pretty much done for this cold season now. I can see a Euro High dominated February on the horizon. Here’s hoping for a slap in the face.

Lets hope so!

 

06z A fairway south on the track at 84- could be a midlands direct hit like the ICON

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lets hope so!

 

06z A fairway south on the track at 84- could be a midlands direct hit like the ICON

Barely develops on the 06z until bout 114 hours!!!could be one of those that keep shifting further and further south with each run!!

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