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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

Very nice GFS 18, but I'm not keeping my hopes up just yet. 

The PV will have to weaken at some point, but can't see that happening before the 10-15th of February. We're in a weather pattern that is very difficult to unblock. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Evening 

nice to see that the gfs is churning out yet another stonker of a run as did last nights when it was trying to sniff out a Scandi block but it's all for good viewing purposes only until we count it down,and the pv looks to be weakening with double barrels of warmings happening in fl

nice chart at 336 a good -NAO sig there

gfsnh-0-336.thumb.png.37aa2353f2cc8626884d68bba43ce7da.png

just waiting for the latest 18z strat charts to come out but look at the 12z,two warmings putting stress on the spv there.

gfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.66a89aae078565629d3f420106ff84ab.png

18z out now.

1881051145_gfsnh-10-384(1).thumb.png.c55811e2627b21131e3a698d43be5cfb.png

over to the gefs ens to see where it fits,hopefully a good set this time as the 12z was a bit shocking.

The first warming of the two seems to be intensifying somewhat, can we see some -8s or even -4s I wonder in tomorrows runs?

gfsnh-10-270.png

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

nice chart at 336 a good -NAO sig there

gfsnh-0-336.thumb.png.37aa2353f2cc8626884d68bba43ce7da.png

That's not a -NAO though, pressure still quite a bit lower over Iceland than over the Azores, if there's high pressure over Iceland and low pressure over Azores to Lisbon then yes.

Not expecting 00z GFS to repeat 18z moment of wintry euphoria, enjoy the virtusl cold and snowfest while you can!

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

18z ensembles aint buying into the op's thoughts 741676514_graphe3_1000___-3.16202_56.10878_(5).thumb.png.e09661c38310f853c43d5b4bb0cda147.png we will have to wait and see where this goes but I still find it hard to trust the FV3 with its history of a cold bias.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

As expected an outlier, pub run does it again.

graphe_ens3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

That's not a -NAO though, pressure still quite a bit lower over Iceland than over the Azores, if there's high pressure over Iceland and low pressure over Azores to Lisbon then yes.

Not expecting 00z GFS to repeat 18z moment of wintry euphoria, enjoy the virtusl cold and snowfest while you can!

Thanks for clarifying the Nick

i was prob getting a bit hasty with regards to amplitude in that sector and getting carried away as do most folk on here when they see even a sniff of cold scenario's in the NWP'S

lets hope we see this amplitude gain momentum over the coming days.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Let's hope this is the  start  of the momentum to what could be termed winter weather and snow and cold. 

The seasonal models and their forecasts for a very mild February, could be about to go bust... 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
2 hours ago, Nick F said:

Was wondering when a GFS operational would bring back from the dead a northerly.

12z extended EPS mean indicates the postive height anomaly / HLB over Canada slowly migrating towards Greenland by day 15, while a negative H500 anomaly persists over Scandinavia. This perhaps highlights potential for northerlies and this movement of positive heights out of Canada appears to be the catalyst for the 18z GFS northerly in FI.

However, troughing modelled over the mid-Atlantic towards Azores needs to do one, as per 18z, in order to do this.

There is “support” for +ve heights in that region a Canadian warming. NAO trending less positive...

DEF004EB-B240-4550-85D5-09597AA5DC4B.thumb.gif.40631ff5490162e88878e492a100aa1b.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

So if we were going with the MJO as a driver to are next pattern change then another ridge should set up again very close to the UK in early February as there is a lag time isn't there?

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

There is really no excitement for the cold and snow lovers at all on the charts and January is certain will end up being virtually snowless for the vast majority. If anything the potential for a stormy low is more likely although the usual GFS weather bomb set ups it usually shows are quite laughable. 

Very little signs of the jet stream aligning in a WNW'ly to ESE'ly direction which at least may bring in decent polar air so instead we get modest cool air forecast mixed in with positive air at times. 

Looks like on both the GFS and ECM long range charts, the PV over the pole could strengthen even further than it already is although the usual cold bias could be playing a part here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
7 hours ago, Nick F said:

That's not a -NAO though, pressure still quite a bit lower over Iceland than over the Azores, if there's high pressure over Iceland and low pressure over Azores to Lisbon then yes.

Not expecting 00z GFS to repeat 18z moment of wintry euphoria, enjoy the virtusl cold and snowfest while you can!

And lo and behold, it disappears. It seems it is easier to predict what won't happen and that would seem to include anything remotely wintry or cold or snowy for the UK ... A Very sad and poor winter this has turned out to be....again.

Edited by Snowfish2
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Another set of absolutely dire 00z runs.
 

image.thumb.png.2bcda417052236fb083edeabcde990f7.png

No cold anywhere really on the 00z GFS ensembles, ECM is similar, as is GEM.

No longer range signal for a return to any higher pressure either. Strap yourselves in for another round of what we've had all winter - nothing.

image.thumb.png.1de3a0b886b56a339a0d8aa8f79ecaf7.png
 

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Posted
  • Location: South East London (Bromley)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heat, Thunderstorms, Wind
  • Location: South East London (Bromley)

What could be notable next week is the wind.

The Icon shows a deep low over the country early next week.

image.thumb.png.900609596668cdb330c530f5cd7c0e80.png

 

image.thumb.png.ed00d34cb9abed89f3e251c819876b14.png You can see where that 960 low on the UKMO would be a few hours earlier.

image.thumb.png.ff9f51b81cd4a5fdd99d18000de1c461.png And the GEM shows this for wednesday showing there is multiple instances of possible severe wind next week

 

image.png

Edited by SouthLondonCold
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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

I think that there is a good chance that there could be an incursion of polar maritime air next week that could bring some snow to higher ground in the north, and beyond that towards the start of February the longer range models point to a mix of colder PM air and milder incursions.  Although the pattern looks less set in a mild rut compared to the earlier part of January, there is still nothing to indicate a chance of salvaging a meaningful cold spell out of this winter.

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6 hours ago, Daniel* said:

There is “support” for +ve heights in that region a Canadian warming. NAO trending less positive...

DEF004EB-B240-4550-85D5-09597AA5DC4B.thumb.gif.40631ff5490162e88878e492a100aa1b.gif

Not really, the warming normally occurs over over troughing - the steeper the geopotential gradient of the trough below the particular vortex level, the stronger the warming, strongest of all when the geopotential contours of the two levels are perpendicular. In the corresponding 500mb charts to the animation the low heights can be seen over northern Canada and Greenland. If the EPS shows increased heights in this area later on, the warming will fade away.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Nothing much in the GFS 00Z that suggests a cold, snowy late-winter might be on the way:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+384 hardly screams 'blizzards', does it?

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

 

 

 

35 minutes ago, IDO said:

No comment on the pub run as it is pretty useless when showing snow/cold nirvana when everything else is not.

No change this morning. Cold front at T132 on GFS hitting NW areas and by T190 left the SE coast. Not cold uppers, though above the average we have seen this January by a way. Another cold front follows shortly after, looking more potent for the North but likely to be modelled less cold with runs. Euro high building in from D13 with an Atlantic trough so till the end of FI mild and wet UK.

All three models similar with the big picture in the UK sector by D10:

2122632780_ECE1-240(4).thumb.gif.939785082b76106b798fe08e77f16b2a.gif1075450514_gemeu-0-240(1).thumb.png.b364ef516f5c15194c403afc0f23bf89.png930709847_gfseu-0-240(1).thumb.png.018e97d9a866cc8c6d7624ed04c3e014.png

Good consistency as we enter February. So we can expect the FI of GFS to have good groundings though the GEFS are showing little guidance out to D16 apart that zonal in one form or other apart from a noisy member or two. Certainy no forcing and if anything the tPV looks more organised than yesterday's 0z.

2128069337_gensnh-21-1-384(3).thumb.png.145b019e93ccf96c3ee02d5988bea168.png

A complete lack of any signal for strong mid-lat blocking let alone high-lat. The MJO is looking like the COD so no sign that will help in February with the lag factor:

ensplume_full.thumb.gif.df0b5460d9897413e366f221a477429e.gif

So the reality is with v.strong strat-trop coupling, any background factors will probably be overridden by this driver, though no sign of an active MJO cold wave for the rest of winter, so little hope of anything other than getting lucky with the ebb and flow of systems that may allow temporary paths to a colder burst(s). 

Quite so IDO. For our corner of the globe at least a strongly couple Strat)trop vortex trump's pretty every other background signal. 

The background signals and forcings seem to come into their own much more when when one or both are weaker or uncoupled.  This year GLosea obviously saw a strong coupling taking place and had so far proved to be on the money.

Whether we can get some weakening or uncoupling remains to be seen but seems unlikely.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Even if t384 was showing raging  blizzards it wouldn't make any difference would it at that time frame, its a waste of time it goes out that far,every 6 hours it changes. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
34 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Even if t384 was showing raging  blizzards it wouldn't make any difference would it at that time frame, its a waste of time it goes out that far,every 6 hours it changes. 

I tend to agree, SLEETY...but, with one proviso: it'll take a major upheaval to overturn the +NAO pattern we've 'enjoyed' for so long! An SSW could do that, I guess, but predicting those (and what they'll do) is fraught with even more uncertainty than the good ol' GFS?

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