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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

T

We now look like being left with February to salvage this dismal excuse of a winter !

There is potential for the back end of Feb and into March as there looks a realistic probability of an esh esh double u.

image.thumb.png.6a72c6a0e0fbae29d9c23cefa9648d36.pngimage.thumb.png.8d1fe6c1d28f467cc596f86225a11570.pngimage.thumb.png.7307a2a6b3cc43f7f42f384a12c11b4c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There is potential for the back end of Feb and into March as there looks a realistic probability of an esh esh double u.

image.thumb.png.6a72c6a0e0fbae29d9c23cefa9648d36.pngimage.thumb.png.8d1fe6c1d28f467cc596f86225a11570.pngimage.thumb.png.7307a2a6b3cc43f7f42f384a12c11b4c.png

I for one would settle for that and wouldn't care about spring being delayed!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Not a very interesting spell of weather on the immediate horizon, a case of watching the current high ebb away slowly to the south, allowing the atlantic to make inroads once again by the weekend. A mild picture in the main, with cloud. Into next week, further unsettled weather from the west, with something colder from the NW for the north at least.

Its these kind of synoptics that force me to switch off from model watching for a few days, might just do that..

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
3 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Well then, all I can say (in my infinite wisdom:oldrofl:) is that, post Day 9-10, the GEFS 12Z ensemble-suite is unbridled malarkey!:shok:

prmslBedfordshire.png   t850Bedfordshire.png

prcpBedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

Anyone drawing any conclusions beyond then based on any of that run is an idiot - massive entropy!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
8 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Anyone drawing any conclusions beyond then based on any of that run is an idiot - massive entropy!

Other than that it won't be severely cold, could be wet, could be dry, could be below average, could be above average though.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

I know it’s the pub run but

71568AF4-7842-4ABE-9A2A-0C60ABF0775C.png

Indeed, it's trying for a Greenland high, similar to the ECM.

gfseu-0-282.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Here we go, northerly incoming!

gfseu-0-300.png

gfseu-1-300.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

This is going to turn into a stonker - could be a snowfest in FI - lots of shortwaves in cold air.

image.thumb.png.c4588434a93198776bdf3ffd96cb4c4c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is going to turn into a stonker - could be a snowfest in FI - lots of shortwaves in cold air.

image.thumb.png.c4588434a93198776bdf3ffd96cb4c4c.png

BANK 10000% over

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

It’s about time the jet had a good trip south for a while

157EC084-2CE6-47DE-A5FB-47D8E094753A.png

0676D044-4BCE-43B2-859A-055E32F4CAAB.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You mean you'd bank the run or winter over?

I'd bank the run 10000% over

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Just now, CreweCold said:

I'd bank the run 10000% over

Probably gone in the morning but let’s enjoy a good run once

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, CreweCold said:

I'd bank the run 10000% over

Yes although believe it or not it doesn't actually register any lying snow for you, but you would have to think that with a general pattern like that, the detail would upgrade nearer the time.

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
Just now, CreweCold said:

I'd bank the run 10000% over

A bank rate that would make even Wonga blush 

image.thumb.png.6b179749b3cfde258119c8b2fcb9dedc.png

I'm ready to be hurt again.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

As noted by others the GFS 18z is a lovely run and along the lines of my thoughts which I posted a while back about cooler / colder  from the NW / N then attempts at higher pressure toward Greenland fitting in with MJO phases 6/7 though phase 7 weaker than originally thought. Obviously some caveats being that we have seen quite a few times the 18z runs tending to be quite a bit colder than the others and with the coupled strat and IOD those haven't helped either but with a weakening of IOD and a PV displacement likely fingers crossed that we will have a chance at something more akin to winter. Will be interesting to see what the ensembles show.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

ECM and GFS at T240...Spot the difference?

gfsnh-0-240.png

ECH1-240.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Evening 

nice to see that the gfs is churning out yet another stonker of a run as did last nights when it was trying to sniff out a Scandi block but it's all for good viewing purposes only until we count it down,and the pv looks to be weakening with double barrels of warmings happening in fl

nice chart at 336 a good -NAO sig there

gfsnh-0-336.thumb.png.37aa2353f2cc8626884d68bba43ce7da.png

just waiting for the latest 18z strat charts to come out but look at the 12z,two warmings putting stress on the spv there.

gfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.66a89aae078565629d3f420106ff84ab.png

18z out now.

1881051145_gfsnh-10-384(1).thumb.png.c55811e2627b21131e3a698d43be5cfb.png

over to the gefs ens to see where it fits,hopefully a good set this time as the 12z was a bit shocking.

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