Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[mb018538]

ECM clusters.....start as you mean to go on:

[frosty ground]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

The usual trend for that possible NW'ly on the GFS 06z with the mini-wave more subdued like the ECM and a satellite low off the main low to the north warming out the uppers. So anything wintry now almost certainly needing altitude:

GFS 06zECM 0z>

So if we look at the uppers, they reflect the downgrade in the mini-wave:

06z> 0z>

So shorter colder flow moderated less cool. Looks like similar to ECM with milder uppers from D9.

I find this post (term Downgrade) odd, Yeah the uppers have been modified in line with surface pressure. 

I would only call uppers being lower a downgrade if the same flow was present and at days 7 that's always unlikely. 

Until we get a longer flow from the north west like a typical 2 day toppler there won't be anything to downgrade or upgrade, okay at attitude in Scotland but that's it really. When the pattern break their will be a two day toppler, just a matter of when really.

 

[IDO]

Looking at the latest Cohen blog:

Quote

I believed a troposphere-stratosphere-troposphere (T-S-T) coupling event with a strong PV/positive AO was likely.  From this week’s geopotential height anomalies (PCH) plot the cycle is now complete.  The tropospheric precursor (positive AO) occurred for all of early January, the strong PV peaked last week, and the downward propagation has now reached the surface.  When the PCH anomalies couple from the stratosphere to the troposphere this could lead to long lived surface AO anomalies consistent with the sign of the PCHs.  In this case with coupling of cold PCHs, the AO could remain predominantly in the positive phase for up to two months.  source: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

He seems to favour this at the moment but remains hopeful there will be a strat disruption in February, but nothing major. I have also noted on the Twitter'sphere that the WWB is likely strat coupling which would adhere to the Cohen theory. It seems that the very strong sPV has been the downfall of this winter, which logically is no surprise, and that possibly we are in a long-term pattern...

...the winter is not quite over yet and we can only hope that the disruption does occur and not too late to just ruin Spring!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Stormy high pressure rinse reapet as the cold just circles round the pole.. Unfortunately you would need something proper to break out of this pattern.. Although it is a normal winter pattern to have a setup like this.. Just one that does not really favour true cold.. 

06z GFS ramps up the storm potential with the south and west really in the firing line.. Thankfully so far this winter the rain has just stopped in time before the Thames has burst.. 

 

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, Climate Man said:

For those that like storms, Monday night beginning to look really rough across all models. May warrant its own thread shortly as there is consistency there now.

30 Year since Burns Day Storm 25-1-1990 - 26-1-1990

 

[Penrith Snow]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Decent barring the recent storms!
 

Snow blankets Spain's east coast and waves smash stores along Costa Blanca beaches | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

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Flights to London, Newcastle and other major UK cities were cancelled as Storm Gloria slammed into the Spanish coastline. In Denia, Alicante, the sea was filmed rushing into the town and surrounding cars

Look at all the snow though. I know it's at elevation, but we've not seen anything like that here all winter, even over higher ground. Sums it up really.


Nothing especially cold showing on the D10 ECM ensembles either:



Seeya later January.

I have a holiday home in South East Spain and between the severe storm in early December and the one yesterday the weather has been glorious, the temperature on Boxing day reached 27c some 10c above normal, it cooled down afterwards but remained sunny until the storms arrived on Sunday.

That's the upside of a Bartlet, terrible miserable winter weather here and summer weather in Spain, thank God I am retired so can enjoy.

Just a note on yesterday's heavy snowfalls in Spain, yes they were on high ground but 1800 feet is hardly a mountain so they had a nice short spell of winter before summer arrives next week.

Andy

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not getting to excited but there could be a little wintry interest in places next week, especially W/NW areas. The GFS 6z highlights this potential, all be it in low resolution! But I've noticed weather online also calling colder spell with frequent snow showers in places.... Just one day would be a shock!! Get the prozac ready folks, we maybe seeing some dandruff in places next week... Not worth getting to excited about just yet though..... Ohhhh what the hell....

[Iceaxecrampon]

Yes - Cumbria potential ppn down to 600ft asl Sunday.

[ArHu3]

30 Daagse: Geen koude signalen | Weer in het nieuws | Weerplaza.nl

WWW.WEERPLAZA.NL

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Slecht nieuws voor de winterfan die zijn laatste hoop op februari had gezet. In de nieuwe 30 daagse verwachting zien we totaal geen...

Today's EC's 30 day forecast, nothing to get excited about unfortunately 

Edited January 21, 2020 by ArHu3

[Man With Beard]

Remarkable mild predicted for the start of February on ECM ensembles. 10C is the average midday temperature for several days, and a good cluster at 12/13C, daily maxes likely to be a degree or two higher still. Almost no runs even remotely cold, and that's from 51 ensemble members. Daffodils galore I'd think, if the wind doesn't blow them over.

Not necessarily a wash-out but I'd imagine the rainfall totals will be high further north given the projected pattern.

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Remarkable mild predicted for the start of February on ECM ensembles. 10C is the average midday temperature for several days, and a good cluster at 12/13C, daily maxes likely to be a degree or two higher still. Almost no runs even remotely cold, and that's from 51 ensemble members. Daffodils galore I'd think, if the wind doesn't blow them over.

Not necessarily a wash-out but I'd imagine the rainfall totals will be high further north given the projected pattern.

Horrific.

For the 1st time since 2004 when i joined TWO i am not even bothering to look at WZ in mid Jan.

Have a look at the chart i just posted in the moan thread.

Coldies, we have  major problems!!

[MikeC53]

30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Horrific.

For the 1st time since 2004 when i joined TWO i am not even bothering to look at WZ in mid Jan.

Have a look at the chart i just posted in the moan thread.

Coldies, we have  major problems!!

As poor as it's ever been, and that's saying something. Hopes of change for Feb were never really founded on much and they are fading away now as the PV barrels on.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

As poor as it's ever been, and that's saying something. Hopes of change for Feb were never really founded on much and they are fading away now as the PV barrels on.

It very much appears that the +AO will indeed continue through the 1st half of Feb minimum.

On that note i will be taking a break from posting until Spring/summer most likely, i haven't posted much anyway TBH as the majority of it would have been moaning and that is not fair on the mods of this excellent site, in fact , kudos to all my fellow cold weather enthusiasts who have kept their peckers up in the face of probably the worst winter in terms of cold for 30 years or more.

Take care all and hopefully next winter will actually happen

 

 

[snowray]

On the face of it this looks like an ok run, more in the way of WWA up towards Northern Canada and western Greenland.

Half decent NWly for us.

 

 

Edited January 21, 2020 by snowray

[IDO]

Nasty storm if it verifies:

More robust upper trough over the Azores so maybe better heights upstream on this run, at least for a while:

May sustain a better colder flow. All subject to change as very fluid ATM.

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

On the face of it this looks like an ok run, more in the way of WWA up towards Northern Canada and western Greenland.

Half decent NWly for us.

 

 

True, but will down grade nearer the time as short wave features appear at the base of the trough which will mix out the colder air.

[Northern Sky]

Not a bad run really in the context of this Winter. Especially if like me you like cold wind and snow/sleet/rain Plenty of PM shots and northern areas with some elevation would see some snow for sure, maybe even to lower levels at times.

No doubt the ECM will be along later to burst this little bubble of optimism but I'll enjoy it till then.

[snowray]

Plenty of snow/sleet showers around particularly in the north and Wales, the colder spell extended, blizzards in the Scottish Ski resorts, proper dumping up there.

Edited January 21, 2020 by snowray

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

True, but will down grade nearer the time as short wave features appear at the base of the trough which will mix out the colder air.

Yes that's the problem alright, so annoying. At least we are seeing something a bit more interesting, never know our luck might change.

[Methuselah]

What an awful chart...-10C uppers are miles away and so are the +10s! Several days' windy 6C cack can go do one; I'd rather it be 13C than 6!

    

PS: Best day on the farm since October----after an icy start, a day of wall-to-wall sunshine; 62F, in the polytunnel!

[stodge]

Afternoon all

As we await the all-important ECM 12Z run, I'm left with the impression the mostly benign start to February is being replaced by a more mobile and unsettled Atlantic profile.

The 12Z OP 10 HPA strat chart continues to intrigue in FI but we'll see if that takes us anywhere in terms of a sting in the tail wintry spell for late February or early March.

[snowray]

Uk snow forcefield switched back on....

 

After Spain, Its southern Italy and Greeces turn once again, they must be getting sick of snow in the Med.

[Methuselah]

Well then, all I can say (in my infinite wisdom) is that, post Day 9-10, the GEFS 12Z ensemble-suite is unbridled malarkey!

   

    

[snowray]

Greenland high coming up?

 

[nick sussex]

The horror show for coldies continues.

The NW snap has turned into a cooler blip and January looks like ending on a very unsettled and windy spell of weather.

One things clear from the winter so far , any amplification shown in the models past day 6 needs to be viewed with a huge pinch of salt .

We’ve seen this flattened out nearer the time.

There’s good agreement on the overall pattern between the ECM and GFS at day ten.

The only remotely interesting feature is the Canadian high which shows up on days 9 and 10.

This could slow down the relentless train of low pressure and might deliver a glimmer of hope if we can push the jet a bit further south and east as the limpet Euro high is refusing to leave the scene quietly.

We now look like being left with February to salvage this dismal excuse of a winter !

Edited January 21, 2020 by nick sussex