Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[markw2680]

Isn’t the uk weather dump? Just few days ago the models was looking quite promising and it was buzzing in here and then pretty much like the flick of a switch it’s all gone and back to square one with this so called winter. Still time yet I suppose and if we do actually get something decent I suppose the shocking winter so far would be a distant memory or is that just a dream. Still the chance that early next week could upgrade but I wouldn’t bet my house on that unfortunately 

Edited January 20, 2020 by markw2680
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[snowray]

A fairly cold westerly on the 18z, a few lucky places might even get their snow fix early next week, probably on higher ground but might be a few surprises north of the M4 (of course).

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Finally some interest in the 18z,of course JFF 

now can we get a Scandi high...

@nick sussex,the UKMO best of the bunch at day Severn.

 

Edited January 20, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Finally some interest in the 18z,of course JFF 

 

now can we get a Scandi high...

 

Also signs there could be a stonking displacement SSW as well - big reversal at 1mb.

 

IN OTHER WORDS - BITTER SPRING ALERT!!

Edited January 20, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Also signs there could be a stonking displacement SSW as well - big reversal at 1mb.

 

IN OTHER WORDS - BITTER SPRING ALERT!!

It could very well be but i would take it after the crap winter that we have had so far

march can deliver ie:-

2013,2018 and i would have probably missed a few,my memory isn't that clever but i remember those two.

still,we have Feb to go so lets see what happens.

Edited January 20, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Finally some interest in the 18z,of course JFF 

now can we get a Scandi high.

 

Unfortunately not much cold air to tap onto, typical. 

Nice to see though, could a decent easterly develop in February after all? Something like Feb 2018?

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Unfortunately not much cold air to tap onto, typical. 

Nice to see though, could a decent easterly develop in February after all? Something like Feb 2018?

I certainly  wouldn't worry about the uppers at that range or an easterly,we need to see if the models repeat this scenario in future runs.

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I certainly  wouldn't worry about the uppers at that range or an easterly,we need to see if the models repeat this scenario in future runs.

Control run looking fab out in la la land I must say.

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs 18z was a mild outlier,in fact this set looks colder than the 12z after the initial cold snap around the 28th/29th

also i have noticed that there is a secondary warming towards the end of the gfs op/control,the pv is getting knocked around a bit esp the control.

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

And a final one from me regarding the MJO,it seems that the orbits go into the COD(cirlce of death) after nearly getting into phase 8 but they look to pull out of the COD and spiral into phase 6 again,this could possibly head back into phase 7 and on wards again

gefs/cfs and ecm.

 

[mountain shadow]

Looking at the ECM day ten chart, parts of the South of England could see temperatures into the mid to high teens.

[Climate Man]

9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Looking at the ECM day ten chart, parts of the South of England could see temperatures into the mid to high teens.

Yes the 850s are quite high for a very small slither of the south coast but it also looks cloudy so I would think low double figures more likely IF correct.

[knocker]

It's not just cloudy the front is bringing heavy rain. But all academic

[legritter]

Hi gang ,thats the big question every time with day 10 charts  , yes south could be Balmy or take it all further south and it could be game on for some wintry ness. So again today we have no real Boom  ,but could all change tonight at 7pm ish ,but the hunt is still on ,possibility of a cold trough setting up to our east in time for February, low 850 s and and warm sea temp some beefy snow showers PERhaps ,cheers .

[IDO]

Those many D10 ECM runs promising something brief but cold for the North, another fail. The mini-wave, now barely a ripple:

ECM> GFS> GEM>

The upper air is moderated accordingly.The GFS remains more potent with a 48h cold flow of uppers, pretty standard winter fayre even in crap winters but worthy of a mention this season. The GEM is now blowing up that low so washes out the uppers (as per previous GFS run), so maybe ignore this GEM run.

The GEFS post-D10 mainly zonal with the jet running through the UK, in fact the op is one of the better runs which is sad in itself. The mean:

Still no sign of forcing, MJO or whatever. The tPV looks like it is winding down, so as we go through February chances improving with even moderate forcing for that bottled cold to flush south somewhere in the NH:

D4> D16>

^^^Very similar design viz pattern, but maybe less strength; straw clutching it may indeed be!

 

[bluearmy]

Signs on the gefs spread that two weeks time may see a more favourable tpv shape wrt to a northerly flow of sorts .....been there before .........

[Cheshire Freeze]

That's some cold front on the day 7 ECM by the way. 

Would be some nasty weather along the squall line.

[MikeC53]

Terrible ECM which takes us to the turn of the month. If we get to the positions shown then it's at least 10 days from there before there could be any favourable shift from the pattern 

[mushymanrob]

Looking very windy next week with gales at times, a very active, vigorous, mobile, average pattern through the heart of winter by the look of it.  Is that uncle Barty beginning to make his presence felt? or will the trop vortex slip over Scandinavia/Siberia and threaten us with a colder Northwesterly?

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, MikeC53 said:

Terrible ECM which takes us to the turn of the month. If we get to the positions shown then it's at least 10 days from there before there could be any favourable shift from the pattern 

Day 10..

Zero prospect of cold if we land at this chart, probably first half of Feb,minimum.

Very nice in the Canaries /south Spain , i would imagine it has been lovely for anyone taking a Winter break there this time round.

 

 

[MikeC53]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 10..

Zero prospect of cold if we land at this chart, probably first half of Feb,minimum.

Very nice in the Canaries /south Spain , i would imagine it has been lovely for anyone taking a Winter break there this time round.

 

 

Yes another glorious winter in Iberia for the most part, the Spanish Met made a great call last winter. Not sure what they said for this winter, but it has been much the same down there.

[mb018538]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 10..

Zero prospect of cold if we land at this chart, probably first half of Feb,minimum.

Very nice in the Canaries /south Spain , i would imagine it has been lovely for anyone taking a Winter break there this time round.

 

 

Decent barring the recent storms!
 

Snow blankets Spain's east coast and waves smash stores along Costa Blanca beaches | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

---

Flights to London, Newcastle and other major UK cities were cancelled as Storm Gloria slammed into the Spanish coastline. In Denia, Alicante, the sea was filmed rushing into the town and surrounding cars

Look at all the snow though. I know it's at elevation, but we've not seen anything like that here all winter, even over higher ground. Sums it up really.


Nothing especially cold showing on the D10 ECM ensembles either:



Seeya later January.

[Climate Man]

For those that like storms, Monday night beginning to look really rough across all models. May warrant its own thread shortly as there is consistency there now.

[IDO]

The usual trend for that possible NW'ly on the GFS 06z with the mini-wave more subdued like the ECM and a satellite low off the main low to the north warming out the uppers. So anything wintry now almost certainly needing altitude:

GFS 06zECM 0z>

So if we look at the uppers, they reflect the downgrade in the mini-wave:

06z> 0z>

So shorter colder flow moderated less cool. Looks like similar to ECM with milder uppers from D9.

[swebby]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

Looking at the ECM day ten chart, parts of the South of England could see temperatures into the mid to high teens.

I'm  skeptical that those warm uppers will make it all the way from the US east coast to the channel without being mixed out to some extent?  Not the first time this winter that i have seen the GFS or the ECM produce runs at D7+ that try and get +10 uppers all the way across the Atlantic to Europe.  Pattern may well be right however, just not as mild as those temps suggest.

Also remember before Xmas both models showing -10 uppers transiting from south of Newfoundland to Ire/UK without modification at the D7+ range, and that is just crazy talk.