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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

To my knowledge, no-one has ever suggested that GW 'created the NAC'...But, whether or not it'll dictate our climate for ever-and-a-day is surely a matter of conjecture?

Anywho, here in 2020, the 12Z at T+228 does provide some interest::oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Unless we have equilibrium in temperature from north to south and lose the rotation of the earth then I'm sure it will carry on

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

A bunch of posts moved over to the moans/banter/chat thread. It's getting confusing with such an influx of those posts.

They aren't really a discussion of what the current models are showing. We do have threads for discussing 'background signals' etc but It might be a better idea if someone started a thread dedicated to certain questions about it.

Cheers.

 

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

And, as if to rub salt into the wound, the 12Z comes up with a 'Goldilocks pattern'...For May!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

I am pleased with the 12z output so far. Even on the gfs the northwesterly has a bit more bite to it so more chance to see wintry conditions for a time.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

GEM has some snow even for southern areas with a bit of height. UKMO looks promising. Is that U kink to our south west about to bring snow to central areas ? ..

368513F4-7FA4-4DB4-8846-52DA77C0D0F0.png

9A064320-AB1A-40BB-B51C-F7E9E6D3315D.gif

6C21241E-7227-4AEF-983B-B191C28420E8.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GEM has some snow even for southern areas with a bit of height. UKMO looks promising. Is that U kink to our south west about to bring snow to central areas ? ..

368513F4-7FA4-4DB4-8846-52DA77C0D0F0.png

9A064320-AB1A-40BB-B51C-F7E9E6D3315D.gif

6C21241E-7227-4AEF-983B-B191C28420E8.gif

Hard to say where that would track . It would help if remains a shallow feature . And it might just disappear on the next run .

Something to keep an eye on though if it’s still there tomorrow .

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

I see there is an idea of a displacement type of strat warming from Canadian sector with main core vortex relocating to Europe, does it not mean the tropospheric vortex will also migrate same direction eventually, or at least try to? This would be at total odds with pattern of Euro high pressure. hm 

gfsnh-10-324.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks

This is model related, just a different one we’re used to. Could this contribute to a slow down in the jet stream that we all Crave?

off01_temp1.jpg
WWW.WEATHERNATIONTV.COM

Last week, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their outlook covering February, March, and April. Warmer than normal temperature are forecast from the Easte

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, jules216 said:

I see there is an idea of a displacement type of strat warming from Canadian sector with main core vortex relocating to Europe, does it not mean the tropospheric vortex will also migrate same direction eventually, or at least try to? This would be at total odds with pattern of Euro high pressure. hm 

 

In theory, if it gets flushed down, however, from experience these nearly always translate to either topplers or transient NW flows in the trop, however, this is nearing the end of the season and the warming is still going strong at the top right out to 384 and is either a reversal or near reversal so this one could get interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

In theory, if it gets flushed down, however, from experience these nearly always translate to either topplers or transient NW flows in the trop, however, this is nearing the end of the season and the warming is still going strong at the top right out to 384 and is either a reversal or near reversal so this one could get interesting.

Wouldn´t it makes sense that the tropospheric vortex in due course then follows the path of stratospheric one? When we got Siberian warming in past and strat vortex migrated to Hudson bay area, then USA got cold with trop vortex dropping down over them.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Wouldn´t it makes sense that the tropospheric vortex in due course then follows the path of stratospheric one? When we got Siberian warming in past and strat vortex migrated to Hudson bay area, then USA got cold with trop vortex dropping down over them.

Yes the general pattern could be mirrored but of course the split didn't get mirrored last year and like i say then general pattern might be the same but the trop is more complex with a higher number wavelength pattern and bits of residual energy can scupper cold spells, probably would be ok for your neck of the woods but would not always necessarily mean that we would get a Northerly straight down from the Arctic.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hope UKMO is correct at 144, EC looks very poor in comparison..

I’ll be interested to see what the day 7 UKMO chart looks like .

We really don’t want the ECM to verify ! 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’ll be interested to see what the day 7 UKMO chart looks like .

We really don’t want the ECM to verify ! 

Actually end up similar to gfs!!!just need that wave to be shallower and we should be okay!!could easily change back towards ukmo tomorrow!!lets hope ukmo trumps the ecm and gfs like it has done a few times already this winter!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

I think the ecm looks quite okay. Still on track for a cold Northwesterly next Monday. Hill snow quite likely though uppers not as good as gfs.

It's nothing special but after the winter  sofar I think we'll take it!

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I think the ecm looks quite okay. Still on track for a cold Northwesterly next Monday. Hill snow quite likely though uppers not as good as gfs.

It's nothing special but after the winter  sofar I think we'll take it!

Agreed. Even the brief chance of a snow shower would be good.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
1 hour ago, Cuban Zebra said:

This is model related, just a different one we’re used to. Could this contribute to a slow down in the jet stream that we all Crave?

off01_temp1.jpg
WWW.WEATHERNATIONTV.COM

Last week, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued their outlook covering February, March, and April. Warmer than normal temperature are forecast from the Easte

 

I doubt it. Great LRF based on the big 3 forecast models 

anom_in_glbz700Sea-1.png
WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

-spread the word- Half of winter is already behind us. This is usually the time when we take a first look at spring, to see what the early projections are and what to expect. We are also going to have a look...

 

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Yes, next week;s 24-48 hour chillier NW'ly spell still present across the models and of course plenty of detail to firm up in the coming days.

It does seem as though the HP-dominated benign spell will return for the start of February and the early part of the month looks between the more unsettled and active Atlantic and the HP regime to the south and south east so mild air for us all for most of the time.

The signal for a break in that pattern towards the end of February remains and I suspect March in particular will be very different to this month and next month.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
31 minutes ago, Downburst said:

I doubt it. Great LRF based on the big 3 forecast models 

anom_in_glbz700Sea-1.png
WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

-spread the word- Half of winter is already behind us. This is usually the time when we take a first look at spring, to see what the early projections are and what to expect. We are also going to have a look...

 

Didn’t these muppets predict an ice-age last year? 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
Just now, Beanz said:

Didn’t these muppets predict an ice-age last year? 

Lol, they show all the big three, ECMWF, Met Office etc. March/April/May predictions and make a reasonable summary view. Pretty close outputs.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
14 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Didn’t these muppets predict an ice-age last year? 

Actually they were pretty accurate for Europe, as a whole, and UK. I found their updates last Winter pretty good, and insightful.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Standard 46 update  .....

Winter's over?

18z GFS hardly inspiring, bar brief windows on Sunday, then next Tuesday/Weds for the north, which could get cold enough certainly for the hills to get a covering of snow, maybe pushing it though to lower levels. Good news for the Scottish ski industry. The trend of the models of digging a trough in the Atlantic by day 10 and raising heights over SW Europe is not a good signal either. 

Edited by Nick F
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