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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

EPS 12z. .500-GEOPOTENTIALS

 

no brain science  required! !..

stark. ..

in the polar Atlantic  flow! !.

and the thermodynamics  are of good sorts also. 

options  'firmly ' on the table for a notable north  westerly outbreak. .and a quite noted one of length  (potentially ).

 

and getting the flow in....will be then the only time to begin calculations  of upper airs and forms  of precipitation! !!

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_37.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_9.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_8.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_10 (1).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Interesting to note that the ECM 12z was a mild outlier at the end of the run, not sure if the ens have been posted yet. Might see something a bit colder turn up in the mornings run, fingers crossed!

 

graphe_ens3.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
7 minutes ago, snowray said:

Interesting to note that the ECM 12z was a mild outlier at the end of the run, not sure if the ens have been posted yet. Might see something a bit colder turn up in the mornings run, fingers crossed!

 

graphe_ens3.png

that's not just a late  'outlier '..

it's effing  vertical! !!!!

 

any medium  to longer term forecasts. .ie- late January /February. .

can only be of medium at best. ..to perhaps low confidence  as a whole. ..as we stand! !!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

now over to the fickle  18z gfs. .

have you got the minerals! !???

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
45 minutes ago, snowray said:

Interesting to note that the ECM 12z was a mild outlier at the end of the run, not sure if the ens have been posted yet. Might see something a bit colder turn up in the mornings run, fingers crossed!

 

graphe_ens3.png

ECM D9 today compared to D10 yesterday 12z:

397181680_ECE1-216(1).thumb.gif.cd70770e5d3570415109702050ce5591.gif150580334_ECE1-240(1).thumb.gif.2df45e38160a26424fad2f35a90b1a6d.gif

GEM and GFS at T216:

912997812_gemeu-0-216(1).thumb.png.54414c1dc8ad7056b0c9bf943bde5599.png141413421_gfseu-0-216(1).thumb.png.fb847df5f93a707479134c3f2937e6c3.png

ECM last two D10 charts were probably overdoing the heights and the GEM and GFS moved towards it, and agree. I expected the 12z from ECM to just adjust that LP cell exiting the US east conus, but the 12z phased it slower! That low should drive the mini-ridge east forcing the colder flow (as per GFR/GEM) but it stalls and even post-D10 the low and ridge remain to our NW rather than on their west to east march! New spot by ECM, or simply ECM D9-10 inconsistency? The mean supports that feature, so puzzling, but I have seen whole suites get it wrong before, so low confidence ATM in ECM D10 (as always). 

ECM D10 mean: EDE1-240.thumb.gif.91642a8d79e958354b5f82f43ae8797e.gif

Pretty awful...

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

very much continuation  of the theme. .

and of course 850s  will be tempered. .although  perhaps not quite as usual. .

and again let's get the flow in...the look  at the deeper dynamics! !

it's cold and frosty  hp. ..transferring to milder wetter mobility. ..then I'm quite sure a deflection  to such as the snap! !..

I'm going for a potent  north westerly. ..with a possibility  of switching northerlys.

whatever. ..some meat on the bone. ..@last 

gfs-0-204.png

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
17 minutes ago, shaky said:

Any positivity on the 18z?

gfs-1-216.png?18spacer.png

yes , GFS 18z looks ok @216 with a Northwesterly flow ( but nothing to get over excited about just yet )

Edited by Jeremy Shockey
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

snow down to very modest levels  via 18z. ..with amicable upper airs  to boot. .

again all in the mix after the slightly  milder damper interlude. .

could be a rare classic  polar  maritime incursion. ..and I think that would be the very least we deserve! !!

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

I’m not saying it will happen but if it does it say you will get more chance of the white stuff to more locations with nw winds rather than northerly winds as they tend to just deliver to coasts etc whereas nw push them quite well into the country in certain areas. All we need then is for this to verify and obviously be cold enough 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
57 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

very much continuation  of the theme. .

and of course 850s  will be tempered. .although  perhaps not quite as usual. .

and again let's get the flow in...the look  at the deeper dynamics! !

it's cold and frosty  hp. ..transferring to milder wetter mobility. ..then I'm quite sure a deflection  to such as the snap! !..

I'm going for a potent  north westerly. ..with a possibility  of switching northerlys.

whatever. ..some meat on the bone. ..@last 

gfs-0-204.png

That’s 10 days away nearly, seriously 

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
4 minutes ago, Beanz said:

That’s 10 days away nearly, seriously 

Always ten days away, well nine soon I agree with TI definate change coming as the last two dry crisp clear days illustrate without looking at any models. Sorry mods but give up on reliability when pessimism, solar, mjo involved after such a winter. Predicting a cold outlook for valentines, snow loving floats my boat ❤☃️

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
52 minutes ago, Beanz said:

That’s 10 days away nearly, seriously 

seriously? ??

it's backed by plenty of data. .and a highly  likely /evolutionary  trait! !..

so what's your point! !????

 

edit;  I wish some would actually  back there posts with some data/synoptics. ..more in depth knowledge /basis! !!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
14 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

seriously? ??

it's backed by plenty of data. .and a highly  likely /evolutionary  trait! !..

so what's your point! !????

 

edit;  I wish some would actually  back there posts with some data/synoptics. ..more in depth knowledge /basis! !!

Is the point to be made that the 10 day charts seldom make it into the reliable? Especially if they're showing what people want to see? In which case they would be numerous to mention in all fairness!!!!!!! 

Edited by Snowfish2
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
4 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Is the point to be made that the 10 day charts seldom make it into the reliable? Especially if they're showing what people want to see? In which case they would be numerous to mention in all fairness!!!!!!! 

feel like free to scroll through  all available  data. .its a high format probability! !..

via many supports! !

to which some  myself have  already posted! !!(some)

this isn't 1 operational model going  off on 1. ...

 

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

Temps dropping off from the 25th on the 18z ens

t850Aberdeenshire.png

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

ecm500_192.thumb.png.6d1dd60ce38eef3f449404cc0d272be7.png

That ridge looks key to me, if that develops under an already cold scenario then will make my winter. Every snow lover wants an early taster, never happens really though. I believe that the ice, cold and snow is coming. . . Could do with hurrying up though ?‍♀️

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent

Looks like there are more signs appearing for colder conditions. Some making it into the more reliable time frame now... NW seems to be the key to this set up. However, for us in the south eastern corner we will have to be the most patient if we see hoping to see anything remotely white fall from the sky.....northerlies are worse, since by the time their impact is felt, they've all but finished, especially topplers, so Am more optimistic with this set up, especially if there are upgrades and that euro high sinks further south..... 

Edited by Snowfish2
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

T216. Like the ecm but gfs having nothing to do with it. 

112EB3B7-E0B1-40EA-869B-B2CABD721833.png

2E140C74-B4F5-454D-B372-324DD0C2FC8A.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks
  • Location: Cleckheaton, W Yorks

looks like it’s not just us suffering a mild winter so far, saw this on an American FB site!
is the Pacific affecting our weather as a knock on effect?
 

Well the pattern doesn't look good for us Winter lovers after this cold snap. Recall a few days ago I was watching everything we meteorologists look at going out into the future, and all guidance and teleconnections looked like a major pattern change was coming and would stay. Thats no longer the case. Instead, Alaska and Greenland remain cold as the main heart of Arctic cold stays locked up, after our brief bout of cold next few days.  Thats not good for us in the Southeast, nor really anyplace in the middle to eastern seaboard for getting and keeping cold air around. The Pacific jet is loaded with waves that keep in pushing across the country, and not allowing enough time or wavelength distance to alter the flow toward a strong Winter like pattern yet. Every few days we have another rain making storm cut inland, and possibly behind it we cool off some, before we have the next inland cutting storm, and you guessed it--more rain.
Its a guessing game as to when we really fundamentally shift the pattern, but it's no time  really soon I'm afraid for those of us wanting a Winter storm to track. As always though next couple of weeks, with atleast marginal cold air following some storms, we'll have to monitor any small scale systems that may drag down "just enough" marginally cold air to work with somewhere, but right now, just not impressed with the pattern for most of us for the remainder of the month.
Here's a big picture look of the overall flow pattern out through day 10.
 

4F1FFFA3-EB20-4195-823F-C7E535FE07A2.jpeg

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