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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The ecm 144 hrs is very similar to the UKMO in not phasing that low off the Eastern seaboard as can be seen for comparison to this mornings

12z 144 v 06z 168 

ECH1-144.thumb.gif.a72ea77f496d25d3fe9507826776f779.gifECH1-168.thumb.gif.81f8471791345ec22b7238e4272b98c7.gif

^this is what we want to see in terms of getting that NW'ly flow more pronounced and getting those cooler/colder temps in

UN144-21.thumb.gif.fbd7e7b61e4f39f24f8e3bf163e49b82.gif

this is better from the ecm,trough/low still not phasing with the parent one even at 192.

ECH1-192.thumb.gif.af1407c86594f0372f0b3efff953f773.gif

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

nw  flow inbound via ecm 12th. .this now looking  a sold format. .

and on advice   it's unworthy  talking of 850hpa pretty 24/48 hours b4!!

 

and to boot...that's 1 icy shelf  of sourcing. ..even from an Atlantic  perspective! !!!

ECM1-192.gif

ECM0-192.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)

The 12z ECM is an improvement compared to last night's run but the uppers indicate just rain with a bit of hill snow. At least it will be cooler.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

There’s absolutely no point in looking at uppers or temperatures etc at this range, let’s just get a nw flow into the country for a start and see where we go from there. It’s absolutely Baltic to the nw at the mo so could well be fun and games if we actually get to this point

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Logging on to this thread, tomorrow morning, could well be interesting...20 pages of 'BOOM!' or 1 page of 'winter is over' posts? Take your pick and place your bets!:yahoo:

You forgot "POTENTIAL" Pete

Anyway the ecm phases the low/trough over the UK at day ten,could it run into cold air as it approaches?

ECE1-240.thumb.gif.677a5ea55ac1a33ac8a67495bdb31932.gifECE0-240.thumb.gif.13f0dc4b24f42c16789695fc517848ae.gif

a long way off but the "POTENTIAL" is there

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

There’s absolutely no point in looking at uppers or temperatures etc at this range, let’s just get a nw flow into the country for a start and see where we go from there. It’s absolutely Baltic to the nw at the mo so could well be fun and games if we actually get to this point

Couldn't agree more. The ECM 12z at T240 has this:

image.thumb.jpg.8d263119cddcbba25373b3ac3564d258.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.dfc2f10429adc96ae591b6093526bac4.jpg

The reason the T850s are poor is due to lows up north meaning the air has had to take a westerly diversion across the Atlantic, they will be subject to change at this range, as indeed might the whole lot(!) but there's only cold coming from this point in the next couple of days.  But that is the end of the run.

Be good to get this northwesterly into the reliable so that we can talk about the specifics, but not yet, too much uncertainty.

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Don't like the ecm, uppers too warm because too much influence from the Atlantic, the air spends too much time in the Atlantic so it warms up for any snowfall to be confined to the higher hills. 

What does it take to get a true Northerly with Maritime Arctic Air flooding down over the country. 

Last time we saw that was 2nd half of Dec 2010.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Be good to get this northwesterly into the reliable so that we can talk about the specifics, but not yet, too much uncertainty.

Quiet right,the uncertainty is around the 120 mark as regards to what happens to the lows off the NE'ern seaboard as i mentioned above

we need these lows cut off and stalled as much as possible for a clean NW'ly flow otherwise the lows phase out west amplifying a ridge ahead of them.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Pretty uninspiring outputs which have moved from dismal to just mediocre .

The ECM is reluctant to drive the pattern se and the depth of cold even allowing for the source looks like a lot of cool rain and some snow to higher elevations .

Admittedly tonight’s outputs are an improvement on the last few days but really that’s not saying much .

 

But surely Nick heights lowering over Europe is a good sign. I mean we haven't seen this for over 6 weeks. No proper heights to our North but potential is there and we haven't been able to use that word since late November 

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

I think the main thing we need to look out for is low pressure developing to our east south east rather than trying to get high pressure north or north west cuz that simply isn’t going to happen atm, then the whole lot of purple to our north could move fractionally east and bingo we would be in a proper cold n to nw flow, I think this is the way forward imo. As others above have said the lows developing from the us need to remain cut off for as long as possible to move everything that bit further east

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
58 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

a sight to behold @1049 hpa. .

a rarity  in its own right!!!

 

ECU1-24.gif

It would be a sight to behold if it was anchored near Scandinavia or to the north but in it's current position it's keeping us dry for a few days...nothing more nothing less and going by the latest ECM it's influence won't last that long.

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

not wanting to put a dampener on things but this evening's ECM I suspect is a cold outlier.looking at the AO and NAO nothing suggests in any  way colder weather with the AO still very positive and NAO also Similar

ao.sprd2.gif

nao.sprd2.gif

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

It would be a sight to behold if it was anchored near Scandinavia or to the north but in it's current position it's keeping us dry for a few days...nothing more nothing less and going by the latest ECM it's influence won't last that long.

in meaning it's a rare situ. .

for a1049er  anchored over the British  Isles! !!

it was worth a mention. 

as for any format of blocking in the region you mention. ..looks at best a complete  falasy. ...

let alone with such height figured HP

 

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Hi gang ,ECM brings us some hope , its like a dog with a bone ,that bone being north Atlantic lows hopefully dragging down Eventual some sort of pay back for the snow less winter to date. Not my usuall words but hey ho here we go  ,a garden path leading to Snow  we hope  .just need something in the reliable and of course depending on your location and LUCK , So is it STellas bacon butty or bread and dripping  ,over to the GFS ,cheers .

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

EC would likely bring some snow but reserved for NW Britain with decent altitude (at a guess 250m).

That said, it might upgrade closer to the time so at least a smidgen of interest for some

 

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

spacer.pngTableaux GEFS 12z

spacer.pngGEFS Ensembles 12z

spacer.pngGEFS Control 12z @216

spacer.pngGEFS uppers 12z @216

A bit of interest from the GEFS for 28th / 29th Jan still. ( but can those uppers deliver anything away from high ground ? )

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM ensembles, first T144:

image.thumb.jpg.561ab45ae9bf6549d0c8a13a5259f245.jpg

It is maybe easier to see the things that are forcing when everything is averaged out a bit, and we can see Azores high displaced west, and in the far SW a low which is important in putting pressure on the trop vortex to move east.  FFWD to T240, and the mean is less helpful as it is a bit of smear of everything:

image.thumb.jpg.aeafadcb5019c14bc5ee70d0796461ca.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.41e642002a1c2651ba0a73f178e2c69d.jpg

For me, it is a bit too much WNW than NW, but as always it is what the individual runs show not the mean that will happen...

Spread telling though at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.f1ba4d3254e03f5fc4886dc43018837b.jpg

Very low uncertainty for UK and immediately upstream, looks like this northwesterly will happen, it is just a question of how cold and the exact direction, could make all the difference between snow and rain as I reckon it is going to be marginal!

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
40 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

as for any format of blocking in the region you mention. ..looks at best a complete  falasy. ...

Not really a complete fallacy (which I think you meant)...check out of recent times Jan 2011 (1042mb) to the north west of the UK, Feb 2012 (1042mb) centred near Scandinavia and Dec 2016 (1041mb) centred just to the east of the UK though not on quite the same intensity can be achieved in more favourable locations.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

Logging on to this thread, tomorrow morning, could well be interesting...20 pages of 'BOOM!' or 1 page of 'winter is over' posts? Take your pick and place your bets!:yahoo:

I’m going to be like the models and go for a half way house. That’s 10 pages of BOOMS and YESSSSSSS’S and 10 pages of ‘winters over’ and ‘March is too late for snow’. Although most days I wake up we are still on the same page as the day before?‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
1 minute ago, Decemberof2010 said:

I’m going to be like the models and go for a half way house. That’s 10 pages of BOOMS and YESSSSSSS’S and 10 pages of ‘winters over’ and ‘March is too late for snow’. Although most days I wake up we are still on the same page as the day before?‍♂️

Agreed!!!  ECM240h GFS384h..the carrot at the end of the stick scenario/La la land for us coldies.

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