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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
34 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON another run to deliver the NW cold, T180:

image.thumb.jpg.7757436a2bb90db752501b68cfe81b85.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3ffd35118fc7bcfae0258fb9d4a82188.jpg

This NW'ly now about day 8, had decreased in likelihood on the models a couple of days ago, but I think it is well back on the cards today.  Maybe it will be fleeting, but an opportunity for snow for some, and most of us have never even gotten close this winter so far, let's see what the rest of the models suggest...

If it was to verify, that could be of interest to Scotland but for the rest of the UK no.  Just goes to show how little this winter has had going for it when someone posts a chart at 180hrs that would only be of interest for Scotland.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Just now, North-Easterly Blast said:

If it was to verify, that could be of interest to Scotland but for the rest of the UK no.

Yes, as shown, but I was considering in the context of recent model runs and possibly looking a day or two further, the ICON only goes to T180.  UKMO goes only to T144:

image.thumb.jpg.24d2c112afdda33b14c8f1381135af46.jpg

But looks to me like it would give some kind of northwesterly cold snap in next few days.  Any way, let's see what the models that go further have to say, GFS next up.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

we need these bottom line features @/around Greenland  to advect south quickly. ..or even the north-westerly  inflow is @risk..

and flattening will commence! !!!

gfsnh-0-162.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

The 12z gfs is firming up on a potent Northwesterly in a weeks time. Snow for many further West. Will it consolidate into something more prolonged over the next couple of days.....

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS makes a bit of a meal of this, but nothing cold is simple this decade!  But T204 has the cold in and snow chances most places with a potent northwesterly:

image.thumb.jpg.495f45109865a4354b103de86de2a899.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a02624538a9b1aa85c079e3002a9c446.jpg

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

tbh- can't be kicking these synoptic out of bed....given what we've  had thus far..

 

and a deeper tap  is still very feasible. ..

a noteworthy  nw  inflow! !!

 

with the jet pummeled South

gfs-1-210.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

Perhaps the ironic benefit of all the cold being locked up over Greenland is Northwesterly's packing a proper punch. At long last maybe a pattern change for month end!!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

we need to eye any minor  ridges in these set ups..

we can quickly  obtain a more polar blast as the transfers take place. ...as highlights  via gfs 12th. ...it's not all doom and gloom at all tbh. ..

no text book stuff. ..but we have options! !!

gfs-1-234.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

last 1 b4  ecm12z. .

my interest is very much spicked  ...

 

a meaty pm  flow looks highly likely. ..and plenty of cold knocking around  us...for minor  dynamical gain! !!

 

keep watching! !!

gfs-1-264.png

gfs-1-234.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

I'm struck by how long the northwesterly lasts on this one, GFS 12z T270:

image.thumb.jpg.6d8c41ab52562d907540a0c0b9e98b78.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.72069d7d276a8b78484b90a323e02b20.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.2e3e3c375542e6904481b2cdf02a604f.jpg

That low to the far SW seems key to prolonging the NW-SE jet.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

This could be the start of something good::oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Or, it could be the GFS reverting to its default Day-10 climatology?:cold::80:

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
12 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

This could be the start of something good::oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Or, it could be the GFS reverting to its default Day-10 climatology?:cold::80:

I doubt it as the Atlantic will simply bring the next weather system in and probably the next after that. The 500 mb anomaly charts also strongly suggest in both the 6-10 day and 10-14 day outlooks at that height for the Atlantic to be, for most of the time, our weather suppllier.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
16 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I doubt it as the Atlantic will simply bring the next weather system in and probably the next after that. The 500 mb anomaly charts also strongly suggest in both the 6-10 day and 10-14 day outlooks at that height for the Atlantic to be, for most of the time, our weather suppllier.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

any incursions  from a northwesterly  flow (Atlantic )will likely  give a fair few close  to what they are craving! !..

with a deeply fridged  Greenland  shelf (source )..

 

as will be highlighted  (I'd bet )..

by both gefs/Eps 500  geos  12z  soon. .

I'll  bung em-up! !

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I admit I have little trust in GFS's Day-10 predictions...If I had a pound for every T240 snow-day, I'd be a millionaire by now!:gathering:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png More realistic?:help:

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GEM 12z another banker, T240:

image.thumb.jpg.e32d1a0a5ab7d7d176abc7c71d543a48.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d2d7c11973b30fbcac291f3f448e149e.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a6136796340eb553e147cbe1eb2d4943.jpg

The direction of travel towards a basically northwesterly flow is established, it is just a question of whether the UK can win the lottery of exactly where the amplification upstream directs the jet and lands the cold plunge, many options open still, including the P18 and GEM which seem to land a direct hit.  

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM 12z another banker, T240:

image.thumb.jpg.e32d1a0a5ab7d7d176abc7c71d543a48.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.d2d7c11973b30fbcac291f3f448e149e.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a6136796340eb553e147cbe1eb2d4943.jpg

The direction of travel towards a basically northwesterly flow is established, it is just a question of whether the UK can win the lottery of exactly where the amplification upstream directs the jet and lands the cold plunge, many options open still, including the P18 and GEM which seem to land a direct hit.  

indeed. 

and as again the 12z  suites  500 geopotentials. ...I reckon will offer up yet more solidity! !!@north  westerly  flow /flows. 

 

and perhaps  a few more 'real' polar/northerly  shots- to boot! !!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
48 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I doubt it as the Atlantic will simply bring the next weather system in and probably the next after that. The 500 mb anomaly charts also strongly suggest in both the 6-10 day and 10-14 day outlooks at that height for the Atlantic to be, for most of the time, our weather suppllier.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

It’s just ridiculous how long we’ve had to wait for a decent spell of drier weather....only for it to get booted away and replaced with a trough again. Terrible.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It’s just ridiculous how long we’ve had to wait for a decent spell of drier weather....only for it to get booted away and replaced with a trough again. Terrible.

Yes, and replaced by cold rain for us in the south at sea-level:

anim_lnw6.gif

Even a colder than average NW'ly is not much use for southern snow lovers. The Downs and other hills may get a coating from the initial cold flow around D8, assuming it verifies for once. Even the north on this run after D10 will struggle to see settled snow TBH (more of a westerly). Then at the end of FI the trend for anomaly UK heights is maintained. So February may start mild as January did (SW'ly for the south)? The mean suggests from D12 for a slow push north of the Iberian high though rather subdued, so for many a westerly zonal flow (worse of both worlds):

anim_osl1.gif 2m temps: graphe6_1000_305_154___.thumb.png.be324ef79dd0f6bb3c482c8a1d27f0c9.png

Nothing resembling a cold spell in my locale if you take the mean^^^.

Maybe at the end of FI the tPV splitting, one Siberia (daughter) and the main Canada. So that may coincide with the heights building to our south? 

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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

I'm struck by how long the northwesterly lasts on this one, GFS 12z T270:

image.thumb.jpg.6d8c41ab52562d907540a0c0b9e98b78.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.72069d7d276a8b78484b90a323e02b20.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.2e3e3c375542e6904481b2cdf02a604f.jpg

That low to the far SW seems key to prolonging the NW-SE jet.

Complete with warm sector to limit any snow to the hills!

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
18 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Complete with warm sector to limit any snow to the hills!

lol...it's a jet warm sector...

the jet in itself highly unlikely  to even be in that baseposition  by 30/01/2020. .

let alone any possible  warm/cold sector geographical  pin pointing. ..

 

'God sakes'

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

The cold brought forward on tonight's ECM. All models agree now on a spell of cold weather from next Sunday! The duration still up for grabs..

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

Having said that uppers are not great at 192hrs! Is the gfs over egging how cold the uppers will be?!

 

Edited by January Snowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Well!  ECM T192:

image.thumb.jpg.22c8d839a1051d7cdd2f19ea532ffbae.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.0ff5a2a1c4a49cd6efa7795bd35cf976.jpg

The model runs have seemed to converged on some kind of northwesterly cold snap for the UK, and ECM follows suit.

Power to add?  We will see...

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