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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
18 minutes ago, Nick F said:

With regards to hoping the eQBO will help us out, again, not as clear cut, yes the QBO is easterly high up in the stratosphere, but it still has yet to descend lower down into the lower stratosphere and certainly far from denting the strong zonal winds at high latitudes - though signs it will do this through February, so may help weaken the PV with time and perhaps allow northern blocking as we end winter.

 

Hi Nick, with regards to the eQBO, if that arrives late winter and is possibly too late to promote favorable blocking, would that impact on our summer? ie blocking be more likely and if so, would that hint at a warmer summer or cooler one ?

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Good morning, peeps!:hi:

I'm not a fan of wintertime inversions (not since the Clean Air Acts, of the 1970s did away with green fog, anyway!) so I look-forward to the day when the sun carries enough oomph to break them...

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Does anyone know how/if the burgeoning heat, over the Eastern Mediterranean, will affect our weather, during the upcoming Spring? It is afterall much closer to us than the MJO...?

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Hi Nick, with regards to the eQBO, if that arrives late winter and is possibly too late to promote favorable blocking, would that impact on our summer? ie blocking be more likely and if so, would that hint at a warmer summer or cooler one ?

Good question, and difficult to answer definitively, depends exactly where the blocking sets up I suppose. If it's over Greenland/Iceland, a southerly tracking jet underneath may not bode well, though depends whether the corresponding -NAO is west based or east based. West based wouldn't be so bad, as we'd be on the warm side of Atlantic troughing, east based not so great. Block over Scandi not too bad in summer with an easterly flow being dry and warm.

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

Interesting chart this from ICON at 120t. Rather than looking for a change from the NW , maybe look further south. The upper low over Iberia eventually splits the huge Atlantic / Euro Rex high. Going forward, not sure how that would eventually pan out weather wise but would at least keep the moist laden westerlies at bay over the British Isles and further time to dry out. Surface flow would be quite cold off the continent. Just looking at an other angle to break the dead lock as forecast charts to change from the North shown by all models at day 10 and beyond never seem to come off.

C

ICOOPEU06_120_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
44 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:
2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Good morning, peeps!:hi:

I'm not a fan of wintertime inversions (not since the Clean Air Acts, of the 1970s did away with green fog, anyway!) so I look-forward to the day when the sun carries enough oomph to break them...

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

The sun may soon have enough strength to break any low cloud or fog but it will do nothing to improve the high pollution levels that are getting trapped under it. Many European cities have recorded alarming levels of air pollution in the last week. Sadly in the UK, there is not much info about air pollution levels.

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

The trend for a change to a cold Northwesterly in a weeks time remains. Looks quite potent actually for parts of the West and North. Heights are lowering over Europe and as I said yesterday it could yet mark a change to something more notable

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Some differences upstream with the GFS 06 hrs run having a more amplified low exiting the ne of Canada compared to the earlier 00hrs run.

The phasing issue with the smaller low ne of Florida is important . It’s very likely that will phase but that needs to happen as late as possible .

The cold air associated with the troughing to the nw is inching se , as soon as the phase happens that stops and your base point for where the cold is by dint of that further nw .

So a later phase means the colder air is already further se. 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A brief window in which snow might fall (Day 10, as always!:oldrofl:) and then normal service is resumed?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Or not?!:unsure2:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
33 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Interesting chart this from ICON at 120t. Rather than looking for a change from the NW , maybe look further south. The upper low over Iberia eventually splits the huge Atlantic / Euro Rex high. Going forward, not sure how that would eventually pan out weather wise but would at least keep the moist laden westerlies at bay over the British Isles and further time to dry out. Surface flow would be quite cold off the continent. Just looking at an other angle to break the dead lock as forecast charts to change from the North shown by all models at day 10 and beyond never seem to come off.

C

ICOOPEU06_120_1.png

Looking at the more amplified early charts that SteveMurr posts may be good short-term for that trough but conversely on most GEFS and the GEM where it was modelled on the 0z it builds back a high close to the UK and  it means after D10 less cold for FI compared to the 0z due to the where the high sits. Of course that could change, but for the longer term I think the early amplification will have a net effect of milder runs as a whole. GEM:

T216gemeu-0-216.thumb.png.20581a385bf8c4a4b1a079d4fc61961c.pngT336gens-0-1-336.thumb.png.287a280bcb24109aef48521dd99968ec.png

GFS T216:gfs-0-216.thumb.png.f35ef098b9f52d109e8f6f2eb7022789.png T294gfs-0-294.thumb.png.23800e49acc42f0a5155718140faab4b.png

T300:gfseu-1-300.thumb.png.d81e4f4f4b4488cd22f1ae0d5387f35b.png

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
37 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Some differences upstream with the GFS 06 hrs run having a more amplified low exiting the ne of Canada compared to the earlier 00hrs run.

The phasing issue with the smaller low ne of Florida is important . It’s very likely that will phase but that needs to happen as late as possible .

The cold air associated with the troughing to the nw is inching se , as soon as the phase happens that stops and your base point for where the cold is by dint of that further nw .

So a later phase means the colder air is already further se. 

 

Wassat in English please  

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
10 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Everyone don’t lose hope who’s up for making a spring snowman..

39A5BDBB-0A46-4C32-9EB1-104C097AB51B.jpeg

Wouldn't surprise me. Northern blocking  normally dominates once winter dissappears, expect signs of it from mid February onwards in the models. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Wouldn't surprise me. Northern blocking  normally dominates once winter dissappears, expect signs of it from mid February onwards in the models. 

Absolutely but it will not be by chance.

image.thumb.png.621a1a2b1df8717d3cf43860bc32a548.pngimage.thumb.png.a5e6da2620f466bf0ff42768318ef5d3.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Absolutely but it will not be by chance.

image.thumb.png.621a1a2b1df8717d3cf43860bc32a548.pngimage.thumb.png.a5e6da2620f466bf0ff42768318ef5d3.png

Will this warming happen though or get watered down again?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Will this warming happen though or get watered down again?

I think there will be a technical and decisive SSW but mid-late February, co-inciding with another MJO wave and will deliver a sting in the tail of winter and a cold spring.

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
50 minutes ago, karyo said:

Will this warming happen though or get watered down again?

Could be the FINAL MW which happens often the end of met. winter time

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

No surprise another set of poor runs with no proper code in the reliable time frame and the normal teases in lala land and beyond. It does look drier though away from the north west with little to tickle the rain gauge for a fair while.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Absolutely but it will not be by chance.

image.thumb.png.621a1a2b1df8717d3cf43860bc32a548.pngimage.thumb.png.a5e6da2620f466bf0ff42768318ef5d3.png

While SSWs can bring notable cold spells to the UK, it does not guarantee it, as it is down to luck as if the blocking sets up favourably to influence the UK with an airflow from a cold source.  I only know of three SSWs that were soon followed by a notable cold spell in the UK (Feb 2018 = cold late month), (early Jan 2013 = cold mid-month), (second half Jan 2009 = cold early Feb).  I am not sure that any of the cold spells in winter 2009-10 or the Dec 2010 severe spell followed on from any SSWs.  

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

I've said for much of the week, the direction of travel is from the NW as we go through latter part of the month, the models have backed away a bit from that, but do still show a trough anchoring down from the NW eventually, but may come unstuck against cut off low off eastern seaboard, which might merge and flatten the pattern, but too far out to call.

In the reliable, high pressure only very slowing sinking southwards, so a dry period ahead, especially in the south, a weak front will bring some rain to northern parts Tuesday. More cloud generally though especially in the north, limiting frost and fog for the south. Temps not far off average overall. 

Longer term, a sea-saw between the high and colder NW flow looks form horse, less of a flat pattern with jet taking on a more amplified flow..

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ICON another run to deliver the NW cold, T180:

image.thumb.jpg.7757436a2bb90db752501b68cfe81b85.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3ffd35118fc7bcfae0258fb9d4a82188.jpg

This NW'ly now about day 8, had decreased in likelihood on the models a couple of days ago, but I think it is well back on the cards today.  Maybe it will be fleeting, but an opportunity for snow for some, and most of us have never even gotten close this winter so far, let's see what the rest of the models suggest...

Edited by Mike Poole
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