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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

E735B42F-E4F3-47B5-9804-34E7B467DB1D.thumb.jpeg.76ad511db774610dbfeee2453b0f5f2e.jpeg

A chart to show how crud winter 2019/20 has been for 2/3 of the season. Strong +ve zonal anomalies going back 6 weeks now.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

As bad a winter chart as any. This could be from 1989 or 1998. Pathetic excuse for a winter. Eternal October

image.thumb.png.b6c05a48e0763b5367b84ba9bc2cac06.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

A long few weeks coming up. Let's hope for a warm spring and a hot summer with copious thunderstorms

The trend over the last couple of days is for a Feb 1998. Certainly no sign of a 1978, 1979, 1985, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2009 or even a 2012 when the SE got caught at the end of an Easterly train that swept Europe

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I really, desperately hoped I'd be wrong about this winter...

Well you will be right about the winter as a whole - no doubt about that - severely mild winter overall - but i have always thought there will be a sting in the tail and still could be.

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

And now to bed for me  ,just hoping for a good ECM run in the morning, nice 192 chart ,opening up the cold 850 s from the north and pulling them south with some troughs embedded and some more to follow, we shall soon see ,sweet dreams all .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
15 minutes ago, LRD said:

A long few weeks coming up. Let's hope for a warm spring and a hot summer with copious thunderstorms

The trend over the last couple of days is for a Feb 1998. Certainly no sign of a 1978, 1979, 1985, 1986, 1991, 1996, 2009 or even a 2012 when the SE got caught at the end of an Easterly train that swept Europe

image.thumb.png.9e3d4f7548aa7edaa56f73bd1df5de5e.png

Strooth... After a crap 1st half of winter, let's at least hope for a sting in the tale, even if it continues into March. Has much as I like decent summer conditions, the though of spending countless nights stuck under a cooling fan fills me with dread! I will think about summer come May, until then, let's get a cold spell in, even if its only a 5 day affair... I still feel confident of something wintry in the next 6 weeks.... Plenty of time folks... Still some peachy 18z ens also.. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

JMA not too bad this evening.

JE264-21.thumb.gif.c8a1fcec76f830f652c5343415e7aea7.gifJE264-7.thumb.gif.a2f7ccc90b71e54dbdc46155661905aa.gif

 

So chances are of something half decent to look forward to from the NW with the ECM being the pick of the crop. 13 days of January left remember so time is still on our side, things can change very quickly of course, even the ECM D15 clusters, or should I say 100% cluster, if correct only takes us out to the 2nd of February, so chin up buttercups, all is not lost.

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

I've just been given a privileged preview of the 0z runs

Wow!

You won't believe the change!  Winter is truly here for the next six weeks

On the calendar

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

T144 for all 3. Ukmo is “better” than the other 2.  

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Not much to say really, same old, same old right out till D16. We are locked into the current pattern of no northern blocking. Maybe the jet further south, or maybe not, if it does then likely cold-zonal rather than cool-mild. But NW'ly can only get you so far for wintry weather especially the further SE you are.

GEM moves towards ECM at D10 with a mini-ridge in the westerly flow so maybe 48h of cooler uppers, though upper T850's cut off early so a watered down cold rain scenario mostly. GFS flatter again but probably too progressive as per usual so expect a shift towards GEM/ECM. Maybe as suggested repeated pattern though still the mean in FI suggests anomalous heights building near the UK, and that maybe the MJO signal; dying in 7 and moving back to 5, so that is subject to change. D16 mean:

831722510_gensnh-21-1-384(1).thumb.png.1cb54ff6308212bac997222b6f43e3cd.png

No need to comment on the above, a picture paints a thousand words.

As for the hope that the +IOD would relax, maybe second thoughts on that:

May explain why we are stuck in this rut. As for the strat, I suspect that if an SSW happens it will be too late to save winter, but maybe a cool damp Spring again? Still no sign of the MJO/WWB showing up in the models for anomalous height rises and even with the lag that should be helping in FI, so maybe other forces dampening the effect? Though after D10 we do see mid-lat Pacific, Russian and Iberian highs; that may indeed be the extent of the MJO forcing within the whole atmospheric mix? 

Hoping the trough at D8+ stalls a bit and we get a more potent cold upper flow like the GEM:

anim_wkk8.gif

Though the ECM has moved away from this in the latest run and GFS yet to board that train...

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

It's got do bad now that I don't even waste  my time looking at the model runs I just read the last few comments on here. Even then the only glimmers of hope are often out at D15 and therefore meaningless in forecasting terms. Of course the atmosphere being the atmosphere could surprise us all come Feb but for now my hopes for this winter are not great I'm afraid.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

We seem to be back where we started this morning! Even the 18z was flat. Very little signs og an atlantic ridge util post day 10 and we know how likely that is to come off........ You know when its bad when you start viewing the model output from + 144! 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Well, after a little break I have to admit it’s looking a little bleak for the foreseeable, I’m not a fan of late Feb/March freezes as slush becomes an issue in the sun - this year I would still love to see that though and we still have chances that could pop up earlier in Feb !! 

Not writing off this year, but next year looks far better with E QBO and coming out of Solar minimum. Happily write off this winter if next is going to be epic !!

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
9 minutes ago, karyo said:

The models look grim once again!

Any update on the progress of the MJO?

image.thumb.gif.01fbd38478c7008d39589720a30e6552.gif

Yep - over done as usual....now just a brief skip through 7 at decreasing amplitude before back into the COD again. I’m done with this ‘winter’.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.gif.01fbd38478c7008d39589720a30e6552.gif

Yep - over done as usual....now just a brief skip through 7 at decreasing amplitude before back into the COD again. I’m done with this ‘winter’.

Thanks for the update. Yes that's pitiful

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
16 minutes ago, karyo said:

Thanks for the update. Yes that's pitiful

I know that MJO phases 4 and 5 are bad for cold in the UK, but phases 6 to 8 are more conducive to colder patterns for the UK.  In the closing days of this month the MJO is forecast to reach phase 0 (the circle in the middle).  What does that mean for the UK.  Is it as bad as phases 4 and 5 for cold in the UK?

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I know that MJO phases 4 and 5 are bad for cold in the UK, but phases 6 to 8 are more conducive to colder patterns for the UK.  In the closing days of this month the MJO is forecast to reach phase 0 (the circle in the middle).  What does that mean for the UK.  Is it as bad as phases 4 and 5 for cold in the UK?

Phases 6 to 8 are more promising for cold but it has to have enough strength  (to be as far from the inner circle as possible). 

Sadly, the update posted above shows sharp weakening of the mjo wave as it goes into phase 7 and eventually it just dies  (enters inner circle).

So we have to look elsewhere for cold. Maybe the stratosphere will help but Not for a while yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
18 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I know that MJO phases 4 and 5 are bad for cold in the UK, but phases 6 to 8 are more conducive to colder patterns for the UK.  In the closing days of this month the MJO is forecast to reach phase 0 (the circle in the middle).  What does that mean for the UK.  Is it as bad as phases 4 and 5 for cold in the UK?

Circle of death just means no strong MJO phase is active, which usually means it will have zero effect on global patterns. 7-8-1 is good for UK cold, but as @karyo says it needs to be decent amplitude to usually have an effect. Sadly it looks like offering nothing for us at this point.

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