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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Gfs op was another mild run from the pack so don't give up hope of a Northerly, plenty of cold options still going, and the ecm run was quite promising. 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The three models at D10 all suggest that if the 24h mini-trough in the westerly flow does provide a mini-ridge and a transient cold flow, a northerly is low-probability, more like a NW'ly:

gemeu-0-240.thumb.png.c184ac6d30b2b190c79d6d131a23231f.pnggfseu-0-240.thumb.png.5616d3f8a4112d5ed41e143f946a5a0c.pngECE1-240.thumb.gif.e329a68269cdf3fe73b7c2cfc6c7eba6.gif

As we would expect ECM the most amplified and low-verification, the GEM much flatter at that period with no mini-trough and the GFS in the middle ground. Either way for the south, pretty much a non-event. The GFS trending as per yesterday with UK heights build from post-D10, giving UK anomalous heights right out into D16+. The mean supports this well:

anim_bxv2.gif

Though variations on a theme and the op was the milder end of the envelope. Too early to see if this is a change to early Spring, but as we enter February not a great turn of events as it currently stands (caveats & disclaimers). Anyways dire doesn't really cover it as we see the models take us out of the coldest phase of winter.

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Ecm  ,promise at the very end for some slushy showers  ,going now for a good old chat up the garden wood shed  ,we need a visit from the  north so will ask the ECM to be full of late xmas cheer tonight  ,lovely white crisp winter morning today , cheers .

.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
1 hour ago, Dennis said:

Greenland 0z and a cool start of the weekend

 image.thumb.png.3ed6ea7b8839316aba693b94ffe32fbb.pngimage.thumb.png.4232ad21b552e24dc81eb3a811393d9c.png

Nice and wintery - i’d bank that to be honest.  

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Today's GFS 00Z not looking to good for my, or anyone else's, snow chances...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

I love these coloured plotted charts. Almost old school charts. Going back some decades ago before computer print outs these and various other charts were hand plotted with two coloured ink pens at speed and drawn up by forecasters ( much more fun ) I think @johnholmes@knocker Anyway looks like some interesting weather over Iberia heading their way as confirmed with a developing upper trough on the model chart.

C

8_A_sfc_full_ocean_color.png-nggid0513105-ngg0dyn-900x800x100-00f0w010c010r110f110r010t010.png

ARPOPEU00_102_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, for anticyclonic gloom-lovers, the 06Z is a peach!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Could be an interesting day 10 on this run. More opportunity for a ridge promoting a north/ north westerly flow.

DF7D1B95-172A-426D-BB28-5EACF65A5F20.png

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
25 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, for anticyclonic gloom-lovers, the 06Z is a peach!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Considering how much rain we've had since way back at the start of autumn I'd snap up that chart with open arms because it'll be dry!! 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

No big changes on the 06z. The jet further south, so more unsettled for the south compared to the 0z. The tPV still in full-on mode with zero signs of any forcing, from the MJO or whatever:

gfsnh-0-366.thumb.png.e2738cebf88c817a3d5e9235da8d334c.png

Chances in this setup for the odd PM blast, transitional, and likely to be watered down as we approach T0. 

Short-term, clear skies, so cold high for a couple of days, then more cloudy, so milder. This maybe the closest the south gets to a winter in 2019/20, so make the most, and enjoy...

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
3 minutes ago, IDO said:

 

Short-term, clear skies, so cold high for a couple of days, then more cloudy, so milder. This maybe the closest the south gets to a winter in 2019/20, so make the most, and enjoy...

Thanks, I’ll put a jumper on

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

It's the extent of the yellows and oranges that's got my interest piqued...Sooner or later (whenever the tPV starts to break down) all that warm air is going to flood north...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

spacer.pngGFS 6z for 28th Janspacer.png

For a number of recent runs now GFS puts the High in a favourable position on Jan 28th for a short cold Northwesterly blast.

-8 uppers flooding down ( but probably watered down by the time we get there )

It will be interesting to see the control for the GEFS 6z shortly since that has been very good recently for this date also.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
5 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

It's the extent of the yellows and oranges that's got my interest piqued...Sooner or later (whenever the tPV starts to break down) all that warm air is going to flood north...?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Well of course it will, during Spring when the continents start to warm up. If the lack of snow cover continues over Europe then an early spring is possible. 

Rather sums up our winter this high pressure spell will bring in average to slightly above temperatures despite frosty nights and sunny days

 I'm afraid any cold and snow set ups are a long way off, really is very little signs of anything snowy showing. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

The last few days nearly all the models are trying to bring in something colder from the Northwest towards month end. The trend is constant and with a bit of luck I really do think this change will develop further. The cold over Greenland is proper stuff so a Northwesterly would certainly pack a punch!

The long range forecasts were very good this year particularly musings from GP who was adamant that January would remain mild. An update from GP would be very welcome in where he sees February going?! Worth remembering that a lot of our recent Februarys were the coldest month of the whole winter so still time....

Edited by January Snowstorm
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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The last few days nearly all the models are trying to bring in something colder from the Northwest towards month end. The trend is constant and with a bit of luck I really do think this change will develop further. The cold over Greenland is proper stuff so a Northwesterly would certainly pack a punch!

The long range forecasts were very good this year particularly musings from GP who was adamant that January would remain mild. An update from GP would be very welcome in where he sees February going?! Worth remembering that a lot of our recent Februarys were the coldest month of the whole winter so still time....

Seasonal LRFs atill see February as mild.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
26 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The last few days nearly all the models are trying to bring in something colder from the Northwest towards month end. The trend is constant and with a bit of luck I really do think this change will develop further. The cold over Greenland is proper stuff so a Northwesterly would certainly pack a punch!

The long range forecasts were very good this year particularly musings from GP who was adamant that January would remain mild. An update from GP would be very welcome in where he sees February going?! Worth remembering that a lot of our recent Februarys were the coldest month of the whole winter so still time....

They need to try a bit harder 

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

i  know its deep la  la land  how long  before the express  is saying   uk going to be snowed  in!!:cold:

gfs-2-246.png

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Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

but the glosea sees a possible ssw.

but matt hugos tweet suggests different.

still reckon feb will surprised depending how the sww works out.

be nice to have the latter displaced vortex over the siberian side of the pole and maintaining that location.

big ask i know.its been worse than 2014..

id say if the gfs and gefs along side jma for stratospheric warming event strengthens over the coming days, then there's a possibility especially if the glosea had this idea in its projection going forward.

 

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