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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
9 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

as long as we got those heights over Europe there is no chance of getting cold here in the UK models are always consistent when it comes to forecasting Euro heights and south westerlies until these heights lower in Europe we can write off at least the first two weeks of February has the Mets long range model glow C5 updated if it has what is it showing for the rest of this season

Well we have got LP over Europe for the next few days but unfortunately the high is right over us and not a few hundred miles further north. Also the main area of LP is not in a favourable position down over southern Spain, if it had been northern Italy/Austria we would have been seeing a half decent easterly develop. 

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Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
2 hours ago, LRD said:

ECM similar to ICON at a similar time frame with a low off of the Canadian east coast about to flatten the pattern

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And looking at the ECM 240...

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...it will be as flat as my kitchen worktop by 264 hours

What a miserable winter climate we have

We barely have a winter climate at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 192 not a million miles away from ECM 192 im afraid.

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About as horrible as you can get.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Spains turn to get a dumping of snow, mainly in the mountains I know but just goes to show how these countries with hot summers like Greece and Turkey, get lovely hot summers and snow in winter too.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
6 minutes ago, snowray said:

About as horrible as you can get.

That summer style low in between the two highs is just a pain!

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
3 minutes ago, snowray said:

Spains turn to get a dumping of snow, mainly in the mountains I know but just goes to show how these countries with hot summers like Greece and Turkey, get lovely hot summers and snow in winter too.

 

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Just think how much white stuff we’d get in a normal winter if we were at the altitude a lot of Spain is. We wouldn’t even need to be as high up...

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

Well my comment last night about small steps has gone the wrong way.. 

We just can't seem to get the heights to play ball and this has been a recurring theme for a while now.

I can't remember when we last saw a decent undercut from a cold high already in situ or a northerly. 

Even 2018 with the split the low still didn't undercut and actually headed north towards the UK from iberia. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
9 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Just think how much white stuff we’d get in a normal winter if we were at the altitude a lot of Spain is. We wouldn’t even need to be as high up...

Yes I have often thought about this, Imagine a range of hills in southern Uk from London to Bristol up to about 1,000 meters, the country would be divided in two even in an average winter with snowfall and high drifts.

 

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Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Models are changing quite a bit at moment, which suggests reliable timeframe has perhaps inched back to shorter timescales 120 hrs - energy off the eastern seaboard remains a question mark, the models could very easily remove the developing low shown today in tomorrow models, given it is shown just outside reliable, or show it on a different trajectory - how it settles in against the large high pressure seems a bit suspect to me..

Its proving once again to be a time when best just sticking to the reliable - 144 hr max..

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Well the vortex migrating to Siberia has been well and truly dropped by the GFS. This signal was huge a few days ago yet it has now completely disappeared. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot in Summer Cold in Winter
  • Location: Eastington Gloucestershire
20 minutes ago, snowray said:

Spains turn to get a dumping of snow, mainly in the mountains I know but just goes to show how these countries with hot summers like Greece and Turkey, get lovely hot summers and snow in winter too.

 

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The Sierra Nevada are 11,000 feet high so they get dumpings quite often, in fact I took a cycling trip to the highest peak back in mid september and we had to turn back as they had snow even back then and we didn't have the clothing for that sort of weather, back at the coast it was 28 degrees and sunny

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I’m going to have my annual moan about the GFS and its longer range output !

Why do they bother when each run has something entirely different . 

 

Completely agree.. look at the 240 hrs range and each following run shows something different at same timescale 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
12 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Well the vortex migrating to Siberia has been well and truly dropped by the GFS. This signal was huge a few days ago yet it has now completely disappeared. 

Upper strat charts are a stonker on this run though, im going for a technical strat warming but in the second half of february.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

The ECM extended has been steadfastly predicting a flat pattern for quite a number of days now....looks like it’ll be sadly proved correct again. Before we know it time will be running out....it’s going to be 2/3 of winter gone with literally nothing happening at all. Could be going near the top of the hall of shame at this rate.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

The mean at 192 is a remarkable representation of the last few NWP op runs so must now be a heavy favourite.

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However, there is a stonking ridge being thrown up to the North West by 254.

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There is likely to be some dumpings thrown up similar to Dec 1990 in FI on some members with a mean like that.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

It really is tough for coldies so far this Winter.

Again as the latest GFS shows the NH jet flow is so flat with little ridging anywhere

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keeping the cold bottled up above 60n much of the time.The high will at least give a mostly dry few days with some night frosts and daytime temperatures near normal so at least feeling a bit more seasonal.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

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Slightly better for here 1706339821_graphe3_1000___-3.16202_56.10878_(4).thumb.png.084b33d488d7256807ec286bd9d9d0e6.png still dont think the northerly is being handled particularly well and probably plenty more runs before it gets ironed out one way or another and still praying that the MJO can go into phase 7 as strongly as possible (still a split within the models on the strength)

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

The northerly signal has more or less gone now but I always thought that was an outside chance in any case. 

What does seem to be a trend is for high pressure to stick around the UK for longer so a dry spell especially for southern areas could be on the cards. How much cloud becomes trapped under the high is the uncertainty at the moment

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

The problem is that yesterday’s better looking charts were, once again, deep into FI territory. I could understand the despondency if there was a backtrack at T96, but T240 charts are usually pure fiction.

It may just be one of those winters . . .

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Oooohhhhh GFS you are a tease, but I do love you...

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