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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Interested to see what the ECM comes up with as all 3, ICON, GFS, UKMO all sit differently. Still a chance this could end better than expected, nothing certain at mid range yet.

The ECM to follow the ICON over the other flatter 2?

iconnh-0-144.thumb.png.1d395323be5f087cf5a5489e8cea3392.pnggfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.b8ce597f466e8286c89889cbdb354e5a.pngUN144-21.thumb.GIF.31a22483d0b6b8e771bea2e3208a5724.GIF

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
22 minutes ago, IDO said:

A bit harsh, check out the GEM:

gem-0-168.thumb.png.de0f0a8792334f994ab115e8cb66b9d4.pnggem-0-156.thumb.png.68e05b4e9249aed0e72b47d49e8a6bb4.png

 

 

@IDO Last year we had SSW and weak vortex now quite opposite, results the same. Last year we had La Nina destructive easterly African standing wave, now we have Nino like WWB, result the same. I couldn't believe that after such a record warm summer we will follow it up with record mild winter and all this under deep solar minimum conditions, yet we managed. OK on to next theory - SST unfavorable or whatever. We may indeed have accelerated the global warming by not reducing the CO2  globally, the subtropical high pressures are larger and block all the attempts of low pressure diving south from Arctic. Europe is becoming one big island of heat like some African or Arabian regions.  Last winter that would categorize as below average was 2002/03 here in Slovakia.

Edited by jules216
spell
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
59 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

When was the last time a strong high sat astride the U.K. for a week ??.

September last - and rather nice it was too..

image.thumb.png.46f0e88dbb31f95d231bdebb3bce8b09.pngimage.thumb.png.94cd0f9b29591dae45f32a53360dd763.pngimage.thumb.png.441ff042b9c597ecf4c061385562fce3.png

image.thumb.png.14fd0f7ad073efff62a1fd0ccaf802fa.pngimage.thumb.png.8fa9dd2df3bdab650b9f40441f492e7e.pngimage.thumb.png.68784d7f5e05084b905b338e909a8cfb.png

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

The Gfs run was painfull to watch, but  did deliver at the end .so quite possible that tonights gfs run will improve earlier  ,just a big hunch .so we now await ECM ,Possibly a boom BOOM at 240 hrs ,or if we are all good guys and girls 

a boom even at 192 hrs , catch you up later .

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

quite unreal...and sums our luck. ..the partial  wedge  of scandinavian heights are scuppering the siberian-lobe inflow. ..and  the aid of Canadian  sector sister lobe. .

 

we have to fall in b4 winters close. ...surely! !!!

ECH1-144.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

our saving grace ???..

certainly  making me look 1. .of late ..

 

 

 

perhaps !!!

Screenshot_2020-01-17-18-40-15.png

ECH1-192.gifperhaps. ...

download.jpeg

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

another  euro HP on the way relentless stuff. is this another 4 weeks worth? with the PV also gaining again in greenland things are looking grim going forward very sad 

 

ECM1-168.gif

ECH1-168.gif

Edited by igloo
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Have to say tremendous consistency from the ECM 192 chart - practically identical to its 0z output.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Cold for the far North.

ECH1-216.GIF.thumb.png.888f7c3963318bdea1470485c60f2d6d.pngECH0-216.GIF.thumb.png.9eeef04a0239355b3195ca9d5406578c.png

Yes - of Canada

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 hour ago, IDO said:

FWIW and that is not a lot, the GFS 12z run in FI pretty strong support for a high close to the UK, again:

gens_panel_mif9.png D16 mean anomaly: gens-21-5-384.thumb.png.73c7904a66edc5d9f383869baac3995b.png

 

As did the 00z ec suite .....

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

ECM similar to ICON at a similar time frame with a low off of the Canadian east coast about to flatten the pattern

image.thumb.png.ba04c735975aabecf728e95c2f283b34.png

And looking at the ECM 240...

image.thumb.png.2187a5950dfb05724d770d0dc1e98514.png

...it will be as flat as my kitchen worktop by 264 hours

What a miserable winter climate we have

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
21 minutes ago, LRD said:

ECM similar to ICON at a similar time frame with a low off of the Canadian east coast about to flatten the pattern

image.thumb.png.ba04c735975aabecf728e95c2f283b34.png

And looking at the ECM 240...

image.thumb.png.2187a5950dfb05724d770d0dc1e98514.png

...it will be as flat as my kitchen worktop by 264 hours

What a miserable winter climate we have

Not the ICON---things must be getting desperate? I hope we don't see the NAVGEM too!:oldlaugh:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
5 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Not the ICON---things must be getting desperate? I hope we don't see the NAVGEM too!:oldlaugh:

Exactly. Someone referred to it earlier saying it looked good. It does closely match the ECM to be fair but even the ICON looked like it would just flatten

Desperate times

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

as long as we got those heights over Europe there is no chance of getting cold here in the UK models are always consistent when it comes to forecasting Euro heights and south westerlies until these heights lower in Europe we can write off at least the first two weeks of February has the Mets long range model glow C5 updated if it has what is it showing for the rest of this season

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