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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The GFS out to D16 repeating zonal mini-ridge synoptic so cold NW'ly turning Westerly possible, but at this range those uppers only cursory:

op>anim_pey6.gif mean>anim_qvq4.gif

However, compared to the mean^^^ the op at the best end of the spectrum for cold for the favoured.

GEM gives us that brief NW'ly from D8-10 but already toning down the T850's and we know GFS overdoes those, so any snow looking like hills and mountains to the NW & W. ECM maintains the run from last night in terms of synoptic, the delay of the low off the eastern seaboard, D10 on ECM but still D8 on the GEM and GFS!

gfseu-0-192.thumb.png.55544559a1e30c4ca89af2c5da3fe1e5.png1514396710_ECE1-240(2).thumb.gif.624f68edc5dd2af9138cfacdb03ee01f.gif

A colder version of that twist from ECM this morning and should be trusted as much as a yesterday's 12z till the other models jump to it. The mean has moved towards the GFS though still not there, probably interfered with by the smaller cluster supporting the op? Best to ignore ECM after D7 ATM.

FI remains poor, now up to Feb 5, a short month as it is, and little sign, apart from noise, of any MJO forcing or any HLB'ing. The tPV remains the driver as it ebbs and flows to our north.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Just a rubbish outlook sadly.
image.thumb.png.9068dea38d4b37df7a6ffd18cf9df19a.png

image.thumb.png.77176be0bf8692deb1c1de58c2fffe7a.pngimage.thumb.png.055525775b57cf9d52789425ebd441a3.png

A few days ago there were a decent number of AO forecasts trending negative....these have all been flushed out as low pressure remains strong over the polar regions. It's not looking good whatever way you try and spin it. We may squeak a little bit of cold/wintriness from some PM NW air, but this will be short lived and insubstantial for most at low levels.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Morning peeps.:hi:

I can't say as I'm convinced by any major pattern-change, going forward...Yes, there could well be some transient wintriness (great for the Scottish ski industry) but, overall, all a bit of a muchness...? 

One thing that caught my eye, however (and what might be of interest to our sylvian friends?️) is that +10C T850s almost reach the SE at T+330!

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Goes off to contemplate the ramifications of the upcoming, fabled SSW!:oldlaugh:

 

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
16 hours ago, johnholmes said:

I doubt it as the Atlantic will simply bring the next weather system in and probably the next after that. The 500 mb anomaly charts also strongly suggest in both the 6-10 day and 10-14 day outlooks at that height for the Atlantic to be, for most of the time, our weather suppllier.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

Indeed John, theres nothing in those charts that suggests anything other then a pretty ordinary winter mix, unsettled, very mobile, milder spells and colder blasts.

Its looking fairly unlikely now that we will get a trop lead cold spell imho, the MJO is expected to weaken in its orbit, theres no sign of any northern blocking - yet, all possible signals have failed to produce a pattern change and even this long waited for settled spell courtesy of high pressure is expected to fizzle out and not ridge northwards.

Will the Strat produce a late cold spell?... well there are signs again that there might be a SSW into mid Feb, but currently its not a strong signal imho (and from a very much a novices pov).

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Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs

Morning all! Things going as expected really! Was never any real support for a bitter Northerly. High pressure in charge until the 24th, the a north westerly flow at times taking us into February. Good for hills in the North but little signal to suggest widely snow conducive air.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Sums up what many of us are thinking, that even with good background signals and the following hype when the MJO goes blocked, there has been in the last two winters an underlying atmospheric state that has muted these signals. How long this winter spoiler persists and why, we will know in time? 

The GFS 06z for D7 brief NW'ly looks banked now, just how cold those uppers get? The 06z slightly dampening them but all within the envelope and still far enough away for upgrades:

gfseu-0-204.thumb.png.c6ce30d3e09c7dee468b4c201f7df964.png

No ECM conversion yet viz the phasing of the low.

Edited by IDO
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

But, given the amount of snowfall, in these parts, this winter (none whatsoever!) next Tuesday's chart is one for the bank?:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Otherwise, we could do with a new pack of straws!:help:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Do the ECM clusters offer any hope going forward? Let's take a look....

D7 - deep trough just to the W/NW of the UK:
image.thumb.png.69b4f3f2242ecdfd4a76d84fcafde20a.png

D9/10 - Trough swings through
image.thumb.png.0e0549fbdd29125f7abd47cbe46f43cf.pngimage.thumb.png.5fc2b6a22e38aa96177673f784bda633.png


D11 onwards - High pressure starts to build as we go into Feb?
image.thumb.png.a15bc48a3cee88ce85315cf6e7a7d019.pngimage.thumb.png.98700c33a1825747c38ee27978d4d40b.pngimage.thumb.png.f8ad6ba6d582c85b0cfb45f0abcc81e5.png

Usual caveats apply when ticking over to a new month with these clusters as they are pressure vs mean monthly pressure, but we will see. Main cluster shows your typical NW/SE split, whereas the second cluster goes for a bigger push from the high keeping more of the UK settled. One to watch, hopefully the really unsettled spell incoming doesn't last too long.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

For most of this winter, so far, I've kept asking myself the same question: just where is the cold, snowy weather (not counting fleeting incursions) going to come from?:unknw:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

<-10C uppers are hardly expansive for the time of year, are they, ?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 hour ago, IDO said:
 

Sums up what many of us are thinking, that even with good background signals and the following hype when the MJO goes blocked, there has been in the last two winters an underlying atmospheric state that has muted these signals. How long this winter spoiler persists and why, we will know in time? 

The GFS 06z for D7 brief NW'ly looks banked now, just how cold those uppers get? The 06z slightly dampening them but all within the envelope and still far enough away for upgrades:

 

No ECM conversion yet viz the phasing of the low.

On that mountain torque chart you really need the East asian mountain torque line (red) to be off the scale - that would then trigger an almost certain strong SSW.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Do the ECM clusters offer any hope going forward? Let's take a look....

D7 - deep trough just to the W/NW of the UK:
image.thumb.png.69b4f3f2242ecdfd4a76d84fcafde20a.png

D9/10 - Trough swings through
image.thumb.png.0e0549fbdd29125f7abd47cbe46f43cf.pngimage.thumb.png.5fc2b6a22e38aa96177673f784bda633.png


D11 onwards - High pressure starts to build as we go into Feb?
image.thumb.png.a15bc48a3cee88ce85315cf6e7a7d019.pngimage.thumb.png.98700c33a1825747c38ee27978d4d40b.pngimage.thumb.png.f8ad6ba6d582c85b0cfb45f0abcc81e5.png

Usual caveats apply when ticking over to a new month with these clusters as they are pressure vs mean monthly pressure, but we will see. Main cluster shows your typical NW/SE split, whereas the second cluster goes for a bigger push from the high keeping more of the UK settled. One to watch, hopefully the really unsettled spell incoming doesn't last too long.

From a snow point of view, there looks like may be a tiny window for most areas around D9/D10 for something transient from the NW (a longer window in the N, of course). The D11-D15 looks like a complete blank for cold, whether unsettled or more settled, and the indication is that the days after D15 will be likewise.

Still, most significant cold in recent years has come in March, so still time ahead.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 hours ago, IDO said:

Sums up what many of us are thinking, that even with good background signals and the following hype when the MJO goes blocked, there has been in the last two winters an underlying atmospheric state that has muted these signals. How long this winter spoiler persists and why, we will know in time? 

The GFS 06z for D7 brief NW'ly looks banked now, just how cold those uppers get? The 06z slightly dampening them but all within the envelope and still far enough away for upgrades:

gfseu-0-204.thumb.png.c6ce30d3e09c7dee468b4c201f7df964.png

No ECM conversion yet viz the phasing of the low.

Remember the days when Mountain Torques were the go to thing for cold and snow, now it's just another pretty useless teleconnection when the PV simply overwhelms anything thrown at it.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Not a bad ICON/DWD with a ridge to the west , followed by the UKMO which is an improvement on the 00hrs run.

The shortwave energy splits , you can see that weak one west of Ireland and the other one much further upstream .

The GFS takes longer to split that energy but still has improved from this morning with a bit more amplitude upstream .

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

No blown up low (N of Scotland) as per the 06z so no warming out of the uppers and a more sustained colder flow:

06zgfseu-0-198.thumb.png.a2001aebae3a9ca5ad4e5e641a8b67d8.png12z1678737971_gfseu-0-192(1).thumb.png.2d69a12952a3553d53129ce8b1f34bc4.pnguppers>1431671091_gfseu-1-204(1).thumb.png.6fee26ced85903100275c71de14b931d.png

So rain from the cold front for most but wintry showers following.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

...though compared to this morning's ECM, still lack of clarity, though both cold and that maintains that theme for around D8-D12.

D10>>gfseu-0-228.thumb.png.b9bfea2fa7e9011ae44510fc532100e2.png1383125092_ECE1-240(3).thumb.gif.7e5000c05e3757e2c7f660a139d66746.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Global warming didn't create the NAC. The NAC has always driven our temperate climate and will continue to do so long after we are all gone.

I have seen the same argument under many different guises for 18 years on these (weather) forums, all making the same mistake that our latitude should some how compare with the eastern side of North America.

To my knowledge, no-one has ever suggested that GW 'created the NAC'...But, whether or not it'll dictate our climate for ever-and-a-day is surely a matter of conjecture?

Anywho, here in 2020, the 12Z at T+228 does provide some interest::oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Bit of an apology for the other day for my best mates suicide,shouldn't have posted even if it was a perspective post.Anyway I've actually looked threw loads of analogues and I'm going for a negative Nao towards  the north west in march .barring the odd toppler etc I can't see any ridging or heighths to the NNW.ec looks ok with altitude but the the 12z GFS still has the the PV to the nw dominating .cheers 

Edited by swfc
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