Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[nick sussex]

I think the reason people get underwhelmed by cold weather in spring is you are battling with that increase in solar energy .

So effectively you need better synoptics to deliver . Of course ironically you’re more likely to be able to sustain blocking at that point as the stratosphere warms up and the PV weakens .

We have seen some quite notable events during March . Highlighted by Karlos on here . That spell was astonishing in terms of depth of cold and snow .

Let’s hope we’re not chasing the remarkable in March and the rest of winter can deliver something for long suffering coldies in here .

[Blessed Weather]

If your post has disappeared it's likely been moved to the Winter Moans, Ramps and Chat thread. This thread is for Model Output discussion please. Thanks.

[Dennis]

frosty sundaymorning ahead

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 6z @ 258 

Actually i don't think its all over for a cold Northwesterly shot around 28th Jan.( as shown by GFS 6z )

It would only need a slightly better orientation of the high for the cold uppers to come flooding down. ( for the North of the UK at least )

Still a few very cold options on the GEFS

Lets see what the 12 z's bring shortly.

 

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Well the ICON's going for it so who will be right.

lets see how the rest of the 12z suits are like later.

[SLEETY]

The ecm operational wasn’t too bad earlier,nothing like the almighty gfs is that just being ignored in all these negative posts,plus only a slight difference  temperature range in the gfs ensembles,like 20c ,but let’s ignore that shall we.

[LRD]

27 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Well the ICON's going for it so who will be right.

lets see how the rest of the 12z suits are like later.

It's ok but that innocuous-looking little low, in between the two massive highs and which lies off of the Canadian seaboard on that chart, will flatten everything out and somehow outgun the influence of those two strong looking highs. Doesn't look like a low that would head SE to me

Edited January 17, 2020 by LRD

[jules216]

That change between 6Z and 12Z Once again the troughing in to Europe has failed big time. This time big GFS fail. Packing in on this diabolical winter, evenings already longer and spring not far away,knowing we can reach 20C in March with this  ever present Euro high

Edited January 17, 2020 by jules216
spelling

[Johnp]

Pretty impressive how this GFS goes from a solid 1045mb high over us to south westerlies stretching from the Azores to Russia within less than 3 days.

UKMO looks a lot more promising for a north westerly later on.

Edited January 17, 2020 by Johnp

[mountain shadow]

5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Pretty impressive how this GFS goes from a solid 1045mb high over us to south westerlies stretching from the Azores to Russia within less than 3 days.

I say it every year, but we only look at GFS because its products are free.

[legritter]

Is the gfs going to give us some much needed cold at 850 mb temp . Some nice cold air LURKING to our north  we should know within 10 minutes or so , big differences already at 180hrs .cheers .wheres the kitchen  im hid behind sofa .

 

[bluearmy]

6 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

6z keeping HP over the UK up to 25th now, struggling to back west, although slightly HP over Greenland, but struggling to influence the UK.

When was the last time a strong high sat astride the U.K. for a week ??.

[SLEETY]

11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I say it every year, but we only look at GFS because its products are free.

Exactly. TOO much faith in gfs in here, looking forward to next ecm run, at least plenty of cold air up North, if we can ever tap into it that is. 

[Methuselah]

54 minutes ago, jules216 said:

That change between 6Z and 12Z Once again the troughing in to Europe has failed big time. This time big GFS fail. Packing in on this diabolical winter, evenings already longer and spring not far away,knowing we can reach 20C in March with this  ever present Euro high

I agree, jules, and I think we may have an 'mastodon in the room': 

I'd normally be looking to the NW, N or NW, at this time of year; but, as was the case in 1975, a lot seems to rest upon what happens to the south?

Jan 30 2020:      

Jan 30 1975: 

Now correct me if I'm wrong, but this year's expanse of >5C uppers is even greater than it was, back in 1975...? Will we get a cold and snowy spring, a hot and thundery summer; or, maybe both...Or none of the above!

Edited January 17, 2020 by General Cluster
I'm losing my marbles!

[Sceptical]

5 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Firstly I can understand the downbeat mood in here... Finding this cold snap is liking finding the pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. Your point about who wants winter at the end of Feb makes no sense to me though... Technically speaking it's winter till the final 3rd of March. And I'm pretty sure most on here would take a shot at a decent snow event come the end of Feb with open arms, and I'm pretty sure we wouldnt be to concerned over the fruit trees for a week. Still a glimmer of hope on the ECM 10 day output... But it's 10 day's!! Worse case scenario is let's right of rest of the month, and pin our hopes on something more promising come Feb, whether it be early or late, who cares!! Just bring it.... The search goes on. 

The meteorological winter runs December till February. 

The astronomical winter is the domain of druids, stargazers and suspect individuals that claim to heal using natural crystals.

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS 12z ends with bone chilling cold but dry.

[Dennis]

GEFS12z if it will succeed thatt a HP is building after PV-lobe than the SNOWmargeddon can start 

Edited January 17, 2020 by Dennis

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Sceptical said:

The meteorological winter runs December till February. 

The astronomical winter is the domain of druids, stargazers and suspect individuals that claim to heal using natural crystals.

Omg that’s so funny !

That last bit about suspect individuals, classic .

 

[ICE COLD]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 12z ends with bone chilling cold but dry.

Now maybe that would warrant a cold weather alert . Can’t believe ones been issued for this weekend. #stupid 

[IDO]

49 minutes ago, jules216 said:

That change between 6Z and 12Z Once again the troughing in to Europe has failed big time. This time big GFS fail. Packing in on this diabolical winter, evenings already longer and spring not far away,knowing we can reach 20C in March with this  ever present Euro high

A bit harsh, check out the GEM:

It has been clear for a few days that past D7 is very volatile due to the setup and more so whether the MJO signal is real or not. The runs will adapt to the ebb and flow of the new data. It does look like GFS and GEM are now moving away from the MJO signal and maintaining a westerly zonal onslaught as would be expected with a mega-tPV and no tropical forcing. We were warned that the background signals are not necessarily to be taken at face value until there is consistency. A few more winter-killer runs like the GFS and we will be able to ignore that MJO move 6-7. The jury remains out for the short-term but not a good trend. 

The GFS mean taken a step towards the ECM D10 mean:

In late December when this pattern emerged we all knew from experience that it could effectively wipe out half the winter and is why many of us prefer no delay in the tPV winding up as those SSW hopes in Nov/Dec generally lead to disappointments and that delay ruins prime time January Winter. But here we are, January written off and signs for February mediocre at best!

[fujita5]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 12z ends with bone chilling cold but dry.

The storm over eastern Canada on that frame looks exceptionally compact, more like a tropical feature.  Wind gusts would be well into the 100mph range!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Now maybe that would warrant a cold weather alert . Can’t believe ones been issued for this weekend. #stupid 

 

Quite, windy in south but also remember that its not just wind speed that lowers the feels like temps, its a dry airmass as well so that would be a worry for people with illnesses.

[nick sussex]

Putting aside the Indiana Jones and the search for snow !

The high pressure could well bring some pretty low temps especially for southern central areas .

Could be some sub zero maxima where fog doesn’t clear . There could be some hoar frost which will bring a festive feel to things .

 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

The storm over eastern Canada on that frame looks exceptionally compact, more like a tropical feature.  Wind gusts would be well into the 100mph range!

Yes so probably wont verify which makes my post redundant anyway but was just illustrating that with relatively high heights you can still get bitter feeling weather.

[IDO]

FWIW and that is not a lot, the GFS 12z run in FI pretty strong support for a high close to the UK, again:

 D16 mean anomaly: 

 

Edited January 17, 2020 by IDO