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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
7 hours ago, MildCarlilse said:

I assume then that serious cold will be overnight lows of -2c in central England,+3c over Scottish Borders and incrementally higher all points north of said. (as a southwest drift off the Atlantic will be the weather maker in these parts if charts verify)

Perhaps some fog or frost next week? Haven’t had a pea souper for ages. What happens after the high slides away is of interest re the possible northerly. 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

More cold and frosty runs!!apart from that no snow shown as of yet!!mentioned to tight isobar yesterday that it will only all flatten out!!this mornings gfs shows exactly that!!!!ukmo looks a bit better!!

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Posted
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
  • Location: Alford, Aberdeenshire.
7 hours ago, MildCarlilse said:

I assume then that serious cold will be overnight lows of -2c in central England,+3c over Scottish Borders and incrementally higher all points north of said. (as a southwest drift off the Atlantic will be the weather maker in these parts if charts verify)

Here's the Mets take on the upcoming "cold spell"

 

Screenshot_20200116-154104_Twitter.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
2 hours ago, swfc said:

Very little on offer this morning regarding any sign of pressure moving towards the north west.dry and a touch of frost but no sign of anything wintry of note.dry tho is one straw to clutch at I guess 

Yes very poor models this morning, and some of the US experts seem to think  that the PV/+NAO regime will be cranking up again in February.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
13 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

Yes very poor models this morning, and some of the US experts seem to think  that the PV/+NAO regime will be cranking up again in February.

So does the EC46.

Dire ction of travel is +NAO ...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

One will have to get used to what we see, Feb has a chance of being even milder for most of the month.  The HP cell/s will continue to be in the wrong place as being shown imo and no signs of any early change unfortunately 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

Yes, nothing even remotely interesting in the charts if you're of a cold persuasion.

Been a fab winter for melodies and gas bills

Worst ever for me personally.

Hope we get a fab summer to make up.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

So does the EC46.

Dire ction of travel is +NAO ...

 

The worst part of +NAO, is that this would have cold lovers tearing their hair out:  A +NAO, but guess what, heavy snowfall in the northern part of the country.

image.thumb.png.123c02f009d30b5130ed44258429efd8.png

Followed by something more dramatic:  No HLB close enough to influence the UK, still zonal with a +NAO, but guess what, cold with widespread snowfall:

image.thumb.png.c5c7ed6778149790685d24039538b75b.png

The fact that this spell of weather that occurred with a +NAO and without HLB close enough to influence the UK must be among the most awful aspects of British Weather, in that +NAO and PVs over Greenland mostly only deliver the dross we have had this month.  It is just sickening that when you look at the above and see that if a +NAO and zonal flow orientates favourably in a polar maritime flow, as opposed to a tropical maritime flow, then the weather in the UK can be much more like winter even without HLB close by.  Having zonality deliver what it has this month when you compare it to what it can deliver if it orientates favourably as above is just as awful seeing a failed easterly.  Why is cold polar maritime zonality so rare these days?  Although I do think we saw a bit of it in Jan 2015 but not on the scale of the above.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps spreads continue to trend to show the flatter scenarios winning out by next weekend to remove our possible northerly

that’s two suites headed the same way ...... the pendulum has quite a way to swing back now ....... on into feb now .......

Yes - and unfortunately the ECM30 updated today and shows mild anomalies for the next 4 weeks across most of the country.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Only point of interest will be how high this HP cell will be, can we crank over the record....and we may get some pretty cold nights under clear skies.  Nice to dry out a bit 

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

ECM ensembles not interested in any cold for the next 10 days at least....850s only -4 at their lowest, and pressure rapidly falling between day 8-10. More unsettled, and probably not too cold. I guess while there are a few colder options we shouldn’t totally discount it just yet.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning all

Very downbeat in here this morning - not sure why. I'm still of the view we will have a very late winter and indeed March may turn out more interesting from a winter perspective than February.

The big change for me overnight in the models is whereas yesterday most were showing the HP relaxing SW into the Atlantic, GFS and ECM are now showing the HP easing away south or south east with pressure falling over the Atlantic especially the Azores. 

The European HP isn't well positioned for us for cold in the short term but GFS 00z OP tried to shift it back towards the British Isles. 

The 00Z Control FI wasn't too bad either 

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Morning gang  ,must admit i was expecting a better Ecm run this morning, and currently the gfs run is ticking along on a mild mush path .I am clutching on the fact that the models at the moment are working with a big monster high , possibly 1050 mb ,so hoping after a few days all models will get a better handle on things .I still think we will get a visit from the arctic or poles , Ecm at 240 hrs is still hinting at this .so come on gang  ,feet up ,fry off some sausages, brown sauce, Coffee , welcome the frost with open arms  , and may tonights ECM , reign supreme ,cheers gang .

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, not being one of the 'if it ain't snow, it ain't weather' fraternity, I must say that I find the extent of 'warm' uppers (for the time of year?) rather interesting in itself::shok:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And also, the emergence of >10C uppers, down south, seems a tad early?

 

Having said that, however...What's the harm in a quick Day-16 miniramp?:clapping:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
24 minutes ago, stodge said:

Morning all

Very downbeat in here this morning - not sure why. I'm still of the view we will have a very late winter and indeed March may turn out more interesting from a winter perspective than February.

The big change for me overnight in the models is whereas yesterday most were showing the HP relaxing SW into the Atlantic, GFS and ECM are now showing the HP easing away south or south east with pressure falling over the Atlantic especially the Azores. 

The European HP isn't well positioned for us for cold in the short term but GFS 00z OP tried to shift it back towards the British Isles. 

The 00Z Control FI wasn't too bad either 

I'd say downbeat due to the poor models, poor EPS, poor ECM monthly and the comments from various US experts. There are no straws to clutch at as far as I can see.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Whats done is done!!theres no going back in regards to that northerly around 192 hours!!models have flattened out considerably which i saw coming a mile off lol!one good thing is we are in for a very long dry spell especially considering all the rain in the last 4 months!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, stodge said:

I live in lowland East London. I've had snow fall and settle in March and even late March. I know everyone wants feet of snow lasting for weeks but this is the UK not Northern Scandinavia or Canada.

If snow in March doesn't float your boat, fine, but the chance of snow falling and settling is still there.

I’d be happy to have it August and at this rate that’s more likely

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
37 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Firstly I can understand the downbeat mood in here... Finding this cold snap is liking finding the pot of gold at the end of a rainbow. Your point about who wants winter at the end of Feb makes no sense to me though... Technically speaking it's winter till the final 3rd of March. And I'm pretty sure most on here would take a shot at a decent snow event come the end of Feb with open arms, and I'm pretty sure we wouldnt be to concerned over the fruit trees for a week. Still a glimmer of hope on the ECM 10 day output... But it's 10 day's!! Worse case scenario is let's right of rest of the month, and pin our hopes on something more promising come Feb, whether it be early or late, who cares!! Just bring it.... The search goes on. 

ECM0-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

I like the positivity mate and I don't want to sound like one of the joyless posters who take delight in crushing people's hopes but it's a shocker today

Yet again (YET AGAIN), the models - and especially ECM - underestimate the strength of Euro heights and the jet stream's desire to crash over us or to our north. I like the ECM as a model but it does this time and time again. GFS does it too. A real model weakness. Perhaps they need to adjust to the new reality

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Posted
  • Location: Near Worcester
  • Location: Near Worcester
9 minutes ago, LRD said:

I like the positivity mate and I don't want to sound like one of the joyless posters who take delight in crushing people's hopes but it's a shocker today

Yet again (YET AGAIN), the models - and especially ECM - underestimate the strength of Euro heights and the jet stream's desire to crash over us or to our north. I like the ECM as a model but it does this time and time again. GFS does it too. A real model weakness. Perhaps they need to adjust to the new reality

Yes, for me the game has changed and the continuation of +AO/NAO is remarkable. 

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