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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Tbh as nice as these ecm charts are it’s already a few days later than last nights gfs showed so until there’s more consistency and it actually counts down a bit I’d say it’s a rather large garden path incident I’m afraid. I don’t want to be doom monger but day 10 charts very rarely verify 

It's quite a swing from this morning and has you say day 10  is light years on the models.hope springs eternal but give it 72 hours to see where it sits etc .good to look at tho I guess 

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Evening all

Well, the 12Z ECM OP has awakened some interest on here and no surprise.

The way it handles the weekend HP is very different from GFS 12Z OP which builds a strong HP but then has it retreat fairly quickly SW before moving ESE into Europe and keeping the UK in a mild flow.

With ECM the HP hangs on and then splits at T+192 with part going SE into Europe and part SW into the Atlantic. Neither remaining cell is strong enough to resist the trough sinking south into the UK with the colder air following.

Worth noting UKMO has a much more intense LP over the south of Iberia than ECM or GFS

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
30 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Tbh as nice as these ecm charts are it’s already a few days later than last nights gfs showed so until there’s more consistency and it actually counts down a bit I’d say it’s a rather large garden path incident I’m afraid. I don’t want to be doom monger but day 10 charts very rarely verify 

Neither do days 7-8 or 9

Overall, as far as we can realistically see ahead we have a big mid lat high setting up over the Uk in the coming days.
 

There is small but real chance the pattern will allow a good retrogression of the high allowing a potential block to set up and bring in some sustained wintry weather. 
 

As ever we need some luck to get things moving in the cold direction, but the current outlook at least has a little potential - versus a straight/flat west to east zonal flow. 
 

keep your eyes peeled but don’t expect anything is my mantra  

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
29 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Tbh as nice as these ecm charts are it’s already a few days later than last nights gfs showed so until there’s more consistency and it actually counts down a bit I’d say it’s a rather large garden path incident I’m afraid. I don’t want to be doom monger but day 10 charts very rarely verify 

You're not being a doom monger. Just being realistic and pragmatic. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Need to see these eye candy charts to come inside 120 hrs to have any kind of faith in them as good as they are to view!

we have to start somewhere pal. ..and these are as good as it gets for the UK. .@starting signals. .

and eyeing all development  in both upper layers /and geopotential  graphics. ..

we would have to be SERIOUSLY unlucky  going forwards now! 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
20 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Need to see these eye candy charts to come inside 120 hrs to have any kind of faith in them as good as they are to view!

You’re  just hunting for a like from sceptical

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

we have to start somewhere pal. ..and these are as good as it gets for the UK. .@starting signals. .

and eyeing all development  in both upper layers /and geopotential  graphics. ..

we would have to be SERIOUSLY unlucky  going forwards now! 

Completely agree about starting somewhere and tbh after the winter or autumn so far (can’t decide what it is) surly something will change soon. Let’s get this high in and see where it goes, you just never no we may hit jackpot but don’t be expecting that especially with day 9-11 charts etc and you will more than likely be disappointed imo 

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Eps-

I'm gonna have to chuck in a big fat BOOM! !

 

the dynamics  are fraught-

with uk/nw  euro outbreak! !!

 

and twinned with a holding pattern...and a terrific  1 to perhaps  get locked int- for a change! !!

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_11 (1).png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_10.png

Nice n blue bbrrrrrrr a good lock in of. Cold air if I'm looking at that correctly tight isobar? 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Just now, Snowfish2 said:

Nice n blue bbrrrrrrr a good lock in of. Cold air if I'm looking at that correctly tight isobar? 

Its a pressure anomaly not temps 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Awesome mean... Day 10 looks to be lining up quite a potent cold shot... Dare I say it, could we be mentioning a wee bit of the white stuff before much longer... The ens most definitely on the way down also.. I've got a feeling another good 18z run is a looming. 

ECM1-240.gif

ECM0-240.gif

birmingham_ecmsd850.png

aberdeen_ecmsd850.png

giphy.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

cartes...

also very pretty! !

 

@500 geos. .12z

EEM1-216.gif

EEM1-240 (1).gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
16 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Eps-

I'm gonna have to chuck in a big fat BOOM! !

 

the dynamics  are fraught-

with uk/nw  euro outbreak! !!

 

and twinned with a holding pattern...and a terrific  1 to perhaps  get locked into- for a change! !!

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_11 (1).png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_eu_10.png

Temp anomaly.

ecmwf-ens_T850a_nhem_11.thumb.png.3388ef9f149f4964c380cac07ac62328.png

gefs for same time.

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.e2678cf29228f9c7c5f9701ba8a12552.pnggfs-ens_T850a_nhem_41.thumb.png.a5788bb18d51aebc7ea3336bd4756589.png

onward and upwards.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

The Ext EPS still rather disappointing with Euro heights dominating - though possibly nudging a bit further north.

Hopefully that northward extension continues in the next few suites.

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

spacer.pngECM 12z @ 240

At long last the PV lobe over Canada takes a hike thus allowing our HP the opportunity to move West and North a bit without getting flattened.

With this favourable orientation of the High we probably get a decent cold Northwesterly or Northerly ......but for how long ?

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
7 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

spacer.pngECM 12z @ 240

At long last the PV lobe over Canada takes a hike thus allowing our HP the opportunity to move West and North a bit without getting flattened.

With this favourable orientation of the High we probably get a decent cold Northwesterly or Northerly ......but for how long ?

 

 

Best we can hope for without some kind of Iceland/Greeny high is a 2 or 3 day toppler.

Without the blocks at higher lats the jet will head north again quickly.

Clearly the EC eps are signalling this scenario.

Hopefully some folk get to see some snow.

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Best we can hope for without some kind of Iceland/Greeny high is a 2 or 3 day toppler.

Without the blocks at higher lats the jet will head north again quickly.

Clearly the EC eps are signalling this scenario.

Hopefully some folk get to see some snow.

 

yet @range  an-Icelandic  high  is very feasible. 

and with such seaboard  prognosis  downstream. .a- clump into a greeny  high. ..I's  also well on the table...despite  the spreads. .

and a notable  cold spell doesn't  come with ease. ...via model/human decipher. .

and those are usually. ...THE VERY BEST ONES @short notice! !!..

have some faith! !

Edited by tight isobar
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