Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, swfc said:

Problem is TI these charts have been doing the rounds since late November??? Granted they are there to be viewed but it seems nothing comes from it at all.great posts btw and here's hoping before march something lands and may see a snowflake this winter.imo the PV to the nw has taken residence there and will not relent

They really haven’t for many weeks we have had no eye candy. The potent northerly we may see likely not lasting long doesn’t rely on HLB for wintry conditions, we are at the time of year when it doesn’t take something extraordinary. As we witnessed late Jan last year, shades of that in output. Deep cold trough! 

[Always a red]

19 minutes ago, swfc said:

Problem is TI these charts have been doing the rounds since late November??? Granted they are there to be viewed but it seems nothing comes from it at all.great posts btw and here's hoping before march something lands and may see a snowflake this winter.imo the PV to the nw has taken residence there and will not relent

Oh I don`t know

I`m not as sceptical this will happen as I was a few weeks ago!! get it, get it!!??

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

They really haven’t for many weeks we have had no eye candy. The potent northerly we may see likely not lasting long doesn’t rely on HLB for wintry conditions, we are at the time of year when it doesn’t take something extraordinary. As we witnessed late Jan last year, shades of that in output. Deep cold trough! 

My real point is hyperventilating  and booming isn't really realistic on a 14day fi chart etc.i get the winter has been rank so far and hopefully things will change .it's not a moan just an observation.unless the PV to the nw weakens I and pressure builds then it will be a MLB or the occasional Nnw with the odd shower .guess it's suck it and see again going forward 

[Daniel*]

16 minutes ago, swfc said:

My real point is hyperventilating  and booming isn't really realistic on a 14day fi chart etc.i get the winter has been rank so far and hopefully things will change .it's not a moan just an observation.unless the PV to the nw weakens I and pressure builds then it will be a MLB or the occasional Nnw with the odd shower .guess it's suck it and see again going forward 

That naughty polar vortex is going to be largely displaced to Eurasia in coming days what does that mean? Well mid Atlantic blocking will be under less fire. The strong vortex could assist with cold trough sinking into Europe with unusually cold air to tap into, we will see what happens but I’d say N/NW cold snap likely. How cold? And for how long? Probably not for long. What is clear there is some very cold air available potential for something more than standard.

Edited January 16, 2020 by Daniel*

[swfc]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That naughty polar vortex is going to be largely displaced to Eurasia in coming days what does that mean? Well mid Atlantic blocking will be under less fire. The strong vortex could assist with cold trough sinking into Europe with unusually cold air to tap into, we will see what happens but I’d say N/NW cold snap likely. How cold? And for how long? Probably not for long. What is clear there is some very cold air available potential for something more than standard.

Possibly yes altho all subject to change .I guess a cold snap is inevitable over a three month period during winter.problem is this winter a cold snap seems to be basically a period of frosty weather.all will be revealed given non of us know going forward what will transpire 

[tight isobar]

@going against  the grain...I'm choosing  atm  to ignore composites /mjo-structure. .

and again looking  for escalating  rises in-around  Scandinavian  quad. .

but we will need to see rapid rates...as the vortex looks to home from the sobering sectors. ...if we get the the prizes are endless. ..if not into February. ...for-any golden tickets. ..

Edited January 16, 2020 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

lol...and with that  the ecm begins a prime outlet via Atlantic  cell. ..and Greenland  looks  amicable. ..

@unreal

[snowray]

This is a lot better from the ECM, HP shifted nicely out of the way west, game on surely?

 

[Allseasons-Si]

WHOAH!!!

steady on ECM

a tonking stonker coming up me thinks.

[Tim Bland]

Day 10 should be good

[shaky]

Cold and frosty ecm all the way and looks like a northerly is about to sweep down at 240 hours!!

[JBMWeatherForever]

Certainly at this range there is still a good chance of some very cold weather before January is out with plenty of time for upgrades as far as a northerly is concerned.  Also with the Polar vortex heading for Scandinavia we could yet end up with prolonged very cold weather too.

[Tim Bland]

NICE

Edited January 16, 2020 by Tim Bland

[ICE COLD]

Definitely a trend for height rises to the NW . ECM ends on a good note . 

[snowray]

Now the fun and games start!

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just having me tea and trying to view the 12z ens at the same time, talk about nearly choking on me food!!! For me things are now becoming more exciting, and perhaps we shouldn't have been so quick today to dismiss last nights 18z as fodder!! There are genuine cold scenarios showing up now quite frequently, and I don't just mean the odd 1 or 2!! This can be a definite sign of changes a foot!! I don't think I'm gonna be to far away with my prediction of colder come the 27th of Jan!! But if I'm wrong, I will take it on the chin... Certainly looking more appealing though. 

[mb018538]

ECM 240 would bring tons of snow...with 500mb heights that low, and 850s on the mark, expect a load of the white stuff.

[Allseasons-Si]

Would love to see day eleven but this is ok.

pressure building in behind it.

[Lampostwatcher]

First snow fall of this boring winter so far if ECM t240 comes off 

Booooooom !!!

[Jordan S]

Strong Winds slowly easing for most during this evening and overnight but rain and in some places heavy, will continue for southern parts for a few hours moving slowly eastwards and effecting Eastern areas later this evening, clearing away during the early hours to the east but heavy showers following behind in some places, dry spells too.. winds likely to become very strong for the western Isles of Scotland later this evening and for a time tonight gusting 50-60mph here perhaps reaching 70mph this swathe of very strong winds transferring to Shetland later tonight into tomorrow gusts of 50-60mph perhaps a little more here for a time.

Icon..

Tomorrow looks calmer for most but a disturbance running across the southern portion of England and wales bringing showery rain perhaps a little wintriness in this on hills west to east through the day with some fairly gusty winds associated with this at times mostly dry elsewhere except Scotland with wintry showers around here. 

As for the weekend and beyond high pressure looks set to build ofcourse with a central pressure of around 1048 millibars a very intense high which will be sat over the southern part of the UK in particular but influencing the weather for all with much drier weather light winds and frost and fog in places into next week too by the middle and the end of next week signs are high pressure will move westwards with some unsettled weather effecting the north but with northwesterly winds likely then temperatures won't be particularly mild and some snow mostly on hills further north is possible. 

Monday next week..

Tuesday..

Thursday..

25th..

26th..

Edited January 16, 2020 by jordan smith

[tight isobar]

troughing delight  via ecm...

blizzards incoming...

and ignore the 850 totals  far deeper sourcing nearer the proposed times! !!!

 

[Djdazzle]

Good looking ECM 240 chart. But how often do those day 10 charts verify?

[Griff]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Would love to see day eleven but this is ok.

pressure building in behind it.

Yes, what happens next over towards Greenland could be interesting! 

[That ECM]

T144 for the big 3. Ecm t240 is good viewing but you can see why ecm goes on to show what it shows compared to gfs if you look nw. Ukmo is in the middle imo. Need to see this unfold over the next few runs. Still good viewing and nice to be in the rollercoaster

[markw2680]

Tbh as nice as these ecm charts are it’s already a few days later than last nights gfs showed so until there’s more consistency and it actually counts down a bit I’d say it’s a rather large garden path incident I’m afraid. I don’t want to be doom monger but day 10 charts very rarely verify