Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[IDO]

14 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ukmo at t144 is trying to send the high north.

A possibility, the GFS 12z already better upstream, with the Atlantic trough under attack from highs left and right, maybe a gateway to height rises and the trough to drop nearer the UK?

06z: 12z:

[MR EXTREMES]

to be honest this is the best looking charts for going forwards towards cold,

all season of coarse could be a phantom run,or

garden path extravaganza, but its not the worst.

seeing more colder charts over the last few days it looks like we are building momentum, but also the possibility ending up with a straight westerly.

but the jet stream arcing over the uk then plunging down through scandinavia but then recurving further south in the central med, with this creating a pocket of low pressure around the central med.

how long will heights hang around out west well its pressure reading are not really weak.

[That ECM]

11 minutes ago, IDO said:

A possibility, the GFS 12z already better upstream, with the Atlantic trough under attack from highs left and right, maybe a gateway to height rises and the trough to drop nearer the UK?

06z: 12z:

It is intriguing. Keep telling myself, hang on look at the t plus but it’s a decent watch if nothing else should of added that I prefer ukmo at t144 over gfs at the same time.

Edited January 16, 2020 by That ECM

[tight isobar]

well gfs at least remain consistant  of sorts. ..with height  placement...and north/northwesterly  inflows. ..

and is of continuous  format with its ensembles! !!

[MR EXTREMES]

take ya pick anywhere north of cornwall would see something wintry.

massive swathe of deep cold along the north.

northwesterly pack a punch this year.

they did a little back in 2014 which northern areas benefited from cold westerlies and cold northwesterlies.

now thats a cold northwesterly.

even cornwall can build a snowman instead of a sand castle lol.

Edited January 16, 2020 by MR EXTREMES

[ICE COLD]

Carrying on with the same theme

[MikeC53]

8 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

take ya pick anywhere north of cornwall would see something wintry.

massive swathe of deep cold along the north.

northwesterly pack a punch this year.

they did a little back in 2014 which northern areas benefited from cold westerlies and cold northwesterlies.

now thats a cold northwesterly.

even cornwall can build a snowman instead of a sand castle lol.

If excitement over transient stuff like this is what it has come to then it's a sad state of affairs!

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

If excitement over transient stuff like this is what it has come to then it's a sad state of affairs!

Welcome to UK winters ! 

At this point given the winter so far even a transient two day cold plunge with some snow would be welcome to coldies in here .

Anyway back to the models . Three GFS runs today all with different upstream patterns by day ten ! 

I think what’s complicating matters is the high can’t really escape nw until these shortwaves running over the top clear se .

 

[Bristawl Si]

41 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

That's reassuring seeing as he has been absolutely hopeless since that fluke in 2013

Purely as an observer; during the past few years.....

internet weather 'hero worship' has seemingly become a growth industry. JC was always being touted as some kind of weather 'god'. Plenty of other global weather gurus touting themselves on twatter; often quoted in model tweets thread. A little bit of due diligence wouldnt go amiss

Edited January 16, 2020 by Bristle boy

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

If excitement over transient stuff like this is what it has come to then it's a sad state of affairs!

I'd agree to a degree nothing to get excited about on today's output.guess it depends on how high you set the bar.i don't this winter I just stand at one

[Griff]

Actually quite surprised, it's an improvement again... 

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

If excitement over transient stuff like this is what it has come to then it's a sad state of affairs!

Not sure what Worcester has been like but sad state of affairs sums up winter so far, so a cold northerly is of interest to some

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Not sure what Worcester has been like but sad state of affairs sums up winter so far, so a cold northerly is of interest to some

Exactly, even if it's only fleeting.

[Griff]

5 hours ago, swfc said:

Yep.bit of a Stealers wheel job,cold to the left of me cold to the right here we are!!!

Latest run keeps under potential cold rather than missing out in FI

[Anthony Burden]

GEFS ensembles looking very interesting at 9 days onwards.If correct it will have been a long time since the 

mean has been below average let alone the -10 c  showing as well for a period of 5 days or more,fingers 

crossed that they are onto something.

[nick sussex]

The UKMO is better upstream at day 6 compared to the GFS .

A chance the high could escape further nw through that gap between the low over Newfoundland and the one north east of Florida and meet up with the ridge moving out of Canada .

[tight isobar]

it's quite laughable  the utter obsession  with Greenland heights  formats...when the placement  of the high  cell is still VERY undecided. ..

and any vertical  sway will  take the hp  on a-north/NE  trip. ..and have a quicker root to cold...and a deeper 1 at that. ..this is honestly  a great position to be in going forwards. ..in any winter. ..let alone the crap  we've  entailed  thus far! !!

 

edit;  and far less material  (in balance ) for the solution  than the energetic  Greenland  sheet!!!

Edited January 16, 2020 by tight isobar

[weirpig]

At last something half decent on the models  of course no 2010  but it would bring something wintry to some parts   how I've missed looking for the white hatching  on the uk profile 

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

it's quite laughable  the utter obsession  with Greenland heights  formats...when the placement  of the high  cell is still VERY undecided. ..

and any vertical  sway will  take the hp  on a-north/NE  trip. ..and have a quicker root to cold...and a deeper 1 at that. ..this is honestly  a great position to be in going forwards. ..in any winter. ..let alone the crap  we've  entailed  thus far! !!

 

edit;  and far less material  (in balance ) for the solution  than the energetic  Greenland  sheet!!!

Absolutely agree given what we've had so far this winter. 

[PiscesStar]

22 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

GEFS ensembles looking very interesting at 9 days onwards.If correct it will have been a long time since the 

mean has been below average let alone the -10 c  showing as well for a period of 5 days or more,fingers 

crossed that they are onto something.

Yes a definite cooling off period even if there is scatter its all cold if that makes sense to a greater or lesser degree 

[MP-R]

39 minutes ago, MikeC53 said:

If excitement over transient stuff like this is what it has come to then it's a sad state of affairs!

This winter is a sad state of affairs, so this year, northwesterlies are exciting lol. Last year, northwesterlies were the taster before the slider snow event down here on 31st Jan / 01st Feb.

GFS 12Z goes for two attempts at a northerly which is cut short to a northwesterly. First one on 26th/27th and another on the 30th. It's clear the problem being high pressure not being up to move northwards enough. Such a shame. Still time for change though.

[tight isobar]

improvement  continues. ...

scatter /members increasingly  have an eye for colder solution! !!

Edited January 16, 2020 by tight isobar

[Allseasons-Si]

The gefs ens are colder towards the 26th than the 06z then bounce back to average,or will they?

 

Edited January 16, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[feb1991blizzard]

26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO is better upstream at day 6 compared to the GFS .

A chance the high could escape further nw through that gap between the low over Newfoundland and the one north east of Florida and meet up with the ridge moving out of Canada .

Yes Nick - I think it was an improvement on its 0z output anyway.

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

improvement  continues. ...

scatter /members increasingly  have an eye for colder solution! !!

Problem is TI these charts have been doing the rounds since late November??? Granted they are there to be viewed but it seems nothing comes from it at all.great posts btw and here's hoping before march something lands and may see a snowflake this winter.imo the PV to the nw has taken residence there and will not relent