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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Good to see that a northerly, of sorts, is still a possibility, but I'm sure glad I missed last-night's Snowmageddon!❄️

T+177h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+384: h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Back down to Earth this morning...All's crap that ends crap?

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

GFS control does show what is possible if we get the high to retrogress favourably.


 

3321F5F6-02D2-41D8-9A4F-F3B5CDA4FD31.thumb.png.aae53ee4928ef68680a3c22cf53c2349.pngDC307AFD-EB54-4625-A5C0-371C5F0FEFB4.thumb.png.d593d606b26074f1ba38748c5013d87c.png
 

We need a few more days to figure out where we go once our incoming high pressure establishes. Does it topple... ? Or can we get a decent high lat block setting up? 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincs
  • Location: Lincs

Morning all. I think a broad North westerly flow is likely for the last 5 days or so of the month, with just a chance that we can squeeze some cold enough air to give some wintryness away from hills. Best case would be a good toppler, little sign of any high lat blocking 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM op has given me a hangover ! 

Even though it’s on the mild side of the ensembles even the coldest solution for London isn’t exactly earth shattering .

Last nights GFS did essentially squeeze out the best of wintry conditions from a situation of no northern blocking .

Because there’s no blocking you need the right PV set up to the ne and sufficient displacement west and north of the limpet high .

The last two sets of GEFS do highlight the untrustworthy nature of ensembles in certain conditions .

Lets hope they flip back towards last nights and stay there !

The ECM only goes out to day 10 though, i'm not expecting anything until day 14 at least.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Seem to be heading into a "toppler gate" area which I thought I'd never see.Anyway a dry weekend at least which means folk can get about.id does seem even when the the PV does attempt to migrate to the east there seems to be some residue PV to the north west ready to pounce.a rise in pressure towards Greenland would be a bonus going forward towards the end of the month.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

Although some runs and ensemble members suggest that we may get a northerly of sorts during the last week of the month, the majority of runs suggest it will be short lived with pressure falling over Greenland again at the very end of the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
43 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Good to see that a northerly, of sorts, is still a possibility, but I'm sure glad I missed last-night's Snowmageddon!❄️

T+177h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+384: h500slp.png   h850t850eu.png

Back down to Earth this morning...All's crap that ends crap?

So what the hell happens between that run and the morning one to be SO different. Don't get it.. Someone explain.. Typical BTW...... 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
9 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

So what the hell happens between that run and the morning one to be SO different. Don't get it.. Someone explain.. Typical BTW...... 

Look at tplus for the output. Nothing unusual in seeing various options being shown at that timescale. JFF and FI are exactly that. 

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
6 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

So what the hell happens between that run and the morning one to be SO different. Don't get it.. Someone explain.. Typical BTW...... 

One model run is never representative of what will happen they’re just ‘ideas’ as to what could happen.  You should see a combination of runs over a period of days and look at patterns, taking averages of combinations and look for trends.  
 

It’s mentioned time and again but very few take notice of the advice and still get hung up on one GFS run, and the pub run at that.  ?? 
 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, Beanz said:

One model run is never representative of what will happen they’re just ‘ideas’ as to what could happen.  You should see a combination of runs over a period of days and look at patterns, taking averages of combinations and look for trends.  
 

It’s mentioned time and again but very few take notice of the advice and still get hung up on one GFS run, and the pub run at that.  ?? 
 

Fair to say the average and pattern change, albeit possibly brief, is an improvement over the last couple of weeks. Signals have been showing for the last week and a half or so. More runs needed for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

I haven’t seen any evidence/momentum/trending that a northerly is anything but transient with a return to blah thereafter 

Theres no pattern change according to the NOAA anomaly charts, so i agree with you. 
Not sure why so many got excited about 1 GFS run that was always going to be an outlier, a "sucker run ".. sorry guys, i know most of you are desperate for cold conditions indeed even though im no coldie, a winter needs a cold spell, currently its all strawclutching. (ok with good reason in many cases).

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

spacer.pngGFS 0z control @ 240

The GFS 0z control @ 240 is the absolute best scenario we can hope for in terms of the position of the high. ( with the current PV set up )

Most models suggesting a flow from NW but for how long ? .....and will be uppers be watered down in reality ?

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
10 minutes ago, shaky said:

Stronger high across the uk at 120 hours on gfs 06z!!gone back in line with the ecm in that sense!!lets see if that makes any difference further on!!

The initial phasing on the 06z is further east than the oz op, which was the worse case scenario:

0z: gfseu-0-168.thumb.png.2304e864ff5804d89039004145c6b0f1.png 06zgfseu-0-162.thumb.png.fba660675930fafc6ec3d1000046be3d.png

Not sure how that will affect the second slide?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
40 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

So what the hell happens between that run and the morning one to be SO different. Don't get it.. Someone explain.. Typical BTW...... 

As my old friend Sammy Rachevsky oft said. The accuracy of the models is inversely proportional to the time from day zero. Thus the common sense way to analyze them is from day zero out and not day ten in

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

MJO..Where art thou??

Clearly there is zero evidence of a pattern change on the 0z runs.

As was for me, chance of a brief north westerly, not sustainable until the PV relents..

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 minutes ago, IDO said:

The initial phasing on the 06z is further east than the oz op, which was the worse case scenario:

0z: gfseu-0-168.thumb.png.2304e864ff5804d89039004145c6b0f1.png 06zgfseu-0-162.thumb.png.fba660675930fafc6ec3d1000046be3d.png

Not sure how that will affect the second slide?

Very very difficult to forecast these shortwaves sliding over the high!!one run might look better than the next but it could merely be just the timing of those shortwaves that make it look better or worse sometimes

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

MJO..Where art thou??

Clearly there is zero evidence of a pattern change on the 0z runs.

As was for me, chance of a brief north westerly, not sustainable until the PV relents..

 

yes the Atlantic high can't build northwards while the PV sits to the NNW.if a build of heighths left the ESB it may build but it's a big ask looking at that nhp imo

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

This particular run is giving the high more chance to go north. Is it right? 

9548E11E-61A8-4BD6-BB8B-0E703A05CFD1.png

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Posted
  • Location: North Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters hot summers
  • Location: North Oxfordshire

Fax chart now showing 1050mb at 120hr yesterday, Monster high, any increases on that number I wonder, can't wait for today's fax. and here's Alex with one of the scenarios on where that high pressure may or may not go

Screenshot_20200115-152609_YouTube.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Just now, That ECM said:

This particular run is giving the high more chance to go north. Is it right? 

9548E11E-61A8-4BD6-BB8B-0E703A05CFD1.png

Yes the PV weakening to the nw and pressure rising towards the ESB.better so far

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Yes the PV weakening to the nw and pressure rising towards the ESB.better so far

That is always a possibility, a transient ridge, the problem is that for many runs at around D10 the tPV starts to cycle around back to Greenland and collapse any heights. Can we get a synoptic that stops the migration of that tPV?

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

Potential! Or perhaps potential? 

I think we'll see a few steps forward and a few back over the next couple of days, but the door remains open

gfsnh-1-252.png

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, IDO said:

That is always a possibility, a transient ridge, the problem is that for many runs at around D10 the tPV starts to cycle around back to Greenland and collapse any heights. Can we get a synoptic that stops the migration of that tPV?

Yes it looks a close but no cigar run.still better profile at least

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

JFF buy into this if your happy to be disappointed if it doesn’t show this evening I’m loving this way forward tho

BD37CADE-6798-4709-9920-8E6746C09D91.png

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