Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[feb1991blizzard]

UKMO poor as well though.

[feb1991blizzard]

[shaky]

1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

hmm a lot of energy transipers  around the tip of Greenland  on this run. .putting a squeeze  on any waa  deeper...and taking  the edge of a more direct arctic hit. ..

so still lots of resolve on hp placement. .and transition  of vortex and sectors! !!

still on the positive  side as a whole. ...

@northern hemhemisphere. 

Whats new buddy!!we can be as positive as we want but we all know including yourself it will all just flatten out as it always does!!

[SLEETY]

The 00z runs always seem to be poor compared to the 12z, been like that for ages, so don't write anything off yet. 

[KTtom]

16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

The 00z runs always seem to be poor compared to the 12z, been like that for ages, so don't write anything off yet. 

Its an interesting debate but i personally find the 00z comes out as a balance between the colder 18z (which i dont even bother viewing live) and the 06z which i always find the flattest and most progressive, i guess the lesson is if you want to  view every run (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) is to form an average at the end of the day as opposed to getting hung up on every individual run as some do...seem to remember a certain senior member of the forum constantly bangining on about this.

[bluearmy]

23 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

The 00z runs always seem to be poor compared to the 12z, been like that for ages, so don't write anything off yet. 

Flatter .....the mean upper ridge on the gefs has pulled back to Iberia when we need it in the Atlantic to allow any trough to dig south ....... ecm op about to reveal day 9 but likely to be in that less enthusiastic area too re troughing to our ese 

[Radiating Dendrite]

ECM is just flat westerly, too much residual energy to the south of Greenland. We end up with a sausage shaped high stretching from Newfoundland to Iberia.

[SLEETY]

Ecm looks better at the later timescale than the gfs, so hopefully it's nearer the mark if the change to much colder weather makes it to the more reliable time frame in the first place, which is asking a lot whenever cold weather is involved for the UK. 

[mountain shadow]

13 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

ECM is just flat westerly, too much residual energy to the south of Greenland. We end up with a sausage shaped high stretching from Newfoundland to Iberia.

Eh? It's setting up for a Northerly at month end which is when we should be expecting it to occur.

I thought it looked excellent. 

Edited January 16, 2020 by mountain shadow

[shaky]

13 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

ECM is just flat westerly, too much residual energy to the south of Greenland. We end up with a sausage shaped high stretching from Newfoundland to Iberia.

Yup and we will end up back to where we have been over the last few months!!high pressure across europe and a big pv over the north pole!!mark my words hardly anything of note will come out of this!!i want to be wrong cos i myself want the snow to come but it just aint happening for us!!

[winterof79]

Nothing off the table in my opinion before the doom mongers get going. 

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Nothing off the table in my opinion before the doom mongers get going. 

 

 

The placement of the high highlights the spread in your post. Unlikely it is going to have this nailed at t240 as the panel above would suggest. What is more disappointing is the panel for t384. I would like to have seen more eye candy to be honest.

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

 

 

The placement of the high highlights the spread in your post. Unlikely it is going to have this nailed at t240 as the panel above would suggest. What is more disappointing is the panel for t384. I would like to have seen more eye candy to be honest.

I haven’t seen any evidence/momentum/trending that a northerly is anything but transient with a return to blah thereafter 

Edited January 16, 2020 by bluearmy

[Weather-history]

 

Its rare you see a FAX chart with 1050mb high pressure marking over some part of the UK

Edited January 16, 2020 by Weather-history

[That ECM]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I haven’t seen any evidence/momentum/trending that a northerly is anything but transient with a return to blah thereafter 

Agreed, nor have I but I was hoping for various background signals I read about to show in latter output in at least some of the gefs but not there at the moment.

[IDO]

I never ever look at the pub run, I do not know why, but the op tends to be the most outlandish of possibilities and just leads to endless disappointments. 

The GFS op and mean has been pretty consistent for a while with the upcoming pattern, the odd run an exception that proves the rule. Into HP for around 5-days from this weekend, a trough dropping to our east, probability is the best we get is the cold flow from the mini-ridge, then back to a westerly flow with maybe some PM input for the N/NW and that takes us into February.

Just because it is consistently bad we can ignore that. As for MJO and other background signals, I tend to ignore till they verify in the output and as discussed there are various theories from experts why the high amplitude MJO signal is not a driver simply reactionary and therefore, maybe, not of much significance. The Met is ignoring and the D16 mean this morning is similar to the last few days, so zero sign of changes:

Unlike the 12z members there is little of worth suggesting last night's run may have been a rogue suite.

Of course, as we know, flips can happen very quickly, and although the chances are getting lower, we cannot rule that out just yet. 

[Kentspur]

No dramas the ECM op was a mild outlier at the crucial timeframe a cold NWly/Nly looks quite possible to end Jan in my opinion

Edited January 16, 2020 by Kentspur

[mb018538]

Ensembles are about 50/50 on mild or cold weather - 8 below -5, 9 above zero, and a couple in-between. OP looks rubbish as its one of the milder ones.

Still some corkers like this in there:


 

[mountain shadow]

28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I haven’t seen any evidence/momentum/trending that a northerly is anything but transient with a return to blah thereafter 

Correct. No sign of any proper Northerly blocking, just the chance of a brief polar North or North Westerly towards month end.

Things are that desperate that even a 20 minute snowfall would be good.

[IDO]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Ensembles are about 50/50 on mild or cold weather - 8 below -5, 9 above zero, and a couple in-between. OP looks rubbish as its one of the milder ones.

Still some corkers like this in there:


 

Yes, the op and control opposite ends of the spectrum and both outliers within the suite, though either may be right when the prizes are handed out. The mean is probably the safest bet until the differences are resolved:

[nick sussex]

The ECM op has given me a hangover ! 

Even though it’s on the mild side of the ensembles even the coldest solution for London isn’t exactly earth shattering .

Last nights GFS did essentially squeeze out the best of wintry conditions from a situation of no northern blocking .

Because there’s no blocking you need the right PV set up to the ne and sufficient displacement west and north of the limpet high .

The last two sets of GEFS do highlight the untrustworthy nature of ensembles in certain conditions .

Lets hope they flip back towards last nights and stay there !

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes, the op and control opposite ends of the spectrum and both outliers within the suite, though either may be right when the prizes are handed out. The mean is probably the safest bet until the differences are resolved:

The coldest period is in a few days time not 14 that would suggest. 

[Penrith Snow]

It's a sign of how desperate things are that a Two Day Toppler 8 days out gets us all excited!

Looking at this mornings runs even that looks unlikely now with any northerly shunted east by the ever powerful PV.

TBH I would prefer to be disappointed now than spend the next 8 days chasing a ghost.

Andy

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

It's a sign of how desperate things are that a Two Day Toppler 8 days out gets us all excited!

Looking at this mornings runs even that looks unlikely now with any northerly shunted east by the ever powerful PV.

TBH I would prefer to be disappointed now than spend the next 8 days chasing a ghost.

Andy

Especially a 2 day toppler one ! 

[Dennis]

A help from Greenland ahead......to bring some winter options