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Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

It seems like years to even see a run like this let alone the weather itself . 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Desperation makes a two day northerly seem like a ‘47 redux! 
 

clusters show this pub run evolution has about as much chance as anything else in the day 9/11 day period 

lets look for some consistency tomorrow 

Hahaha . It’s been hard times since the 2018 beast and we’re all desperate for Cold and snow .

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Desperation makes a two day northerly seem like a ‘47 redux! 
 

clusters show this pub run evolution has about as much chance as anything else in the day 9/11 day period 

lets look for some consistency tomorrow 

True - and the graph actually looks a bit like a downgrade rather than upgrade.

image.thumb.png.27c1af6dc86b213c5b744eda1ee2147f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Another upgrade on the GEFS though - they will look more favourable than the 12z when the graph comes out.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Dennis said:

image.thumb.png.0969d2298f4e41ab4d5b4a47daa28c13.png

12z 850Hpa

there now stale Dennis my friend. .@12z

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
21 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Far too early yet of course but what is interesting here is that some Ops and Controls are starting to get excited, not just a few random GEFS members.

Definitely time to sit up and take notice folks, as this is actually a very feasible outcome (note... ‘feasible’ though, not necessarily ‘likely’ )

Should something close to this transpire, there would be some very unstable airmass around.

 

18z control showing the northerly as well, not such a prolonged cold spell but nice to see it supporting the op so its not likely to be an outlier.

gens-0-1-216.png

gens-0-0-216.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Confirmed, 18z not an outlier by any means! :yahoo:

 

graphe_ens3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

I assume  my post via 18th ens has been removed! !!??

 

 

@baffled

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

GEFS look decent. For a laugh, how about this one...

3EA93267-DF92-4831-AFF0-193ADF0F6687.thumb.png.0e6438331c768d95146c843e26f22b77.png

coldest one for here was this at a tasty -14.3 850hpa (obviously at the more extreme end of the scale) gens-16-1-252.thumb.png.96daf5c6621a58e5c449613ff7e5b26d.png things ticking along nicely 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

largescale support for a cold blast...and well within its run. 

with mean/members in full support  of the op. .

MT8_London_ens (3).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Decent support for the northerly

image.thumb.png.abea7f1f7c7ccedb69c6b8cb5ca81b9b.png

Ahh  just beat me TI !

Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level

Just noticed 5 minutes ago, netweather had crashed, only briefly, but must be the 1st time for 2 years... Somethings a brewing!! Worth signing of with some ens from the 18z...plenty of support for some serious fireworks down the line. Be careful not to bite to much of a chunk out of your sofa in the morning come the early runs...

gens-0-1-216.png

gens-0-0-216.png

gens-1-0-240.png

gens-3-0-216.png

gens-4-0-348.png

gens-7-0-264.png

gens-7-1-252.png

gens-9-0-276.png

gens-9-1-264.png

gens-12-0-240.png

gens-12-1-228.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
6 minutes ago, Purga said:

Decent support for the northerly

image.thumb.png.abea7f1f7c7ccedb69c6b8cb5ca81b9b.png

Ahh  just beat me TI !

I beat both of you over a quarter of an hour ago, come on keep up...Right, who's staying up for the 00z runs???

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Just noticed 5 minutes ago, netweather had crashed, only briefly, but must be the 1st time for 2 years... Somethings a brewing!! Worth signing of with some ens from the 18z...plenty of support for some serious fireworks down the line. Be careful not to bite to much of a chunk out of your sofa in the morning come the early runs...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

gens-12-1-228.png

I like the look of that last one with the low sinking south instead of east and HP staying out in the Atlantic, nice cold NEly there, could we get a reload I wonder?

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

Very exciting times ahead but not gonna get bit this time lol stunning 18z for cold lol

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

And everyone hiding behind the sofa when the morning runs come out. 

This massive pattern change  of the bottled up Arctic air flooding South eventually, if it occurs was forecast by some a  few weeks ago,so big boom to them  let's hope it is showing in the reliable time frame which will be by the weekend. Fingers crossed. 

 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

ICON looking good at T180, similar to the 18z, HP nicely out west, northerly primed and ready, pity it don't go out a bit further.:oldgood:

iconnh-0-180.png

iconnh-1-180.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

a very well rounded he 'now migrated cell'..

excellent  for possible  more defined rises....and from 1 of the better verifiying suites @00z..

 

see where go !?

gfsnh-0-186.png

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Not surprised to see a run pop up showing a potent northerly, as I've said the direction of travel is to look to the NW..

Developments expected over the next 2-3 days are preety significant, going from a deeply disturbed atlantic patttern, to a major block in the space of 48 hrs.. tells you the atmosphere is about to undergo rapid change, and perhaps we shouldn't be surprised if we see a flip to something sudden and quite extreme, with the large block putting a brake on the atlantic as it interacts with the shift in the core position of PV north of Russia.

Lets see where we are tomorrow, but the trend in the models today has been towards something colder and wintry from a general NW direction in the 7-10 day timeframe.

Potent northerlies have a tendancy to spring out of nowhere all of a sudden, and often after lengthy atlantic spells, remember many of those early-mid 00 winters that produced such events.. shortlived but can be very dramatic and with the deep seated cold over the arctic, any airmass from the north will be very unstable and snow leaden.

  It’s very interesting what you say and it has been an interesting day of model watching how ever Exeter isn’t buying in to all these called runs and it makes me wonder why or if these runs will actually come off ☺️ I really really do hope one of these runs come off we coldies it here in the UK have suffered quite a lot this and previous winters

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

hmm a lot of energy transipers  around the tip of Greenland  on this run. .putting a squeeze  on any waa  deeper...and taking  the edge of a more direct arctic hit. ..

so still lots of resolve on hp placement. .and transition  of vortex and sectors! !!

still on the positive  side as a whole. ...

@northern hemhemisphere. 

gfsnh-0-234.png

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