Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[Don]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

-11 touching the south east . There you go Mr Murr

Just need to get that into the 48 hour time frame.  Not too much to ask!  Nice to see some eye candy anyway.

[ALL ABOARD]

Slow and steady.. 

I always prefer when you have subtle upgrades on a run to run basis. 

Wild flips never rarely come off..

Of course tomorrow the pattern may shift the other way but as someone else has posted above me, the most interesting part is that each run is moving towards the high moving west then towards Greenland as the lower heights drain east with the main PV chunk. 

Interesting times ahead and if we can get enough amplitude of that high we could all probably accept the last two months for the final outcome. 

Edited January 15, 2020 by ALL ABOARD

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Awakened from my winter slumber.

My gosh, that Vortex is sure going for a big stretch to our North-East!

[tight isobar]

cracking. ..

a polar shot of almost text book proportion. .

and a real tap into  bottled up refrigeration. ..

Edited January 15, 2020 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

-4c in parts by 7 O'clock at night.

Plus Below freezing by 7 O'clock across the whole country.

[Dancerwithwings]

And the model thread has finally woke up, 

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BULLSEYE!    -   -12c into Scotland

Great -12 uppers, dam line showing at 510, ice days and heavy snow.....text book bliss

[tight isobar]

note;..

the 18th run is well mirrored  in its sister suite  12th ens. ..

we-are OFF!!!!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

At day ten

someone pass me the...

the models are gaining traction now

the models are wiping there mjo glasses.

 

[Dennis]

lets see the progress into greenland the next days 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

CHESHIRE GAP STREAMER ALERT!!!

@CreweCold

 

And bypasses me! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

You guys have awoken me from my ancient slumber... Nearly spat me horlex out when I viewed the 18z....strooth...some intense cold showing its hand on this run.... Could we be about to see for the 1st time this season.... A boom situation. 

Ps.. I'm out of reactions but fantastic commentary from all of you... You beauty.. 

[nick sussex]

Could well be some thundersnow .

Warmish sea , the source of the air and depth of cold should see some very lively snow showers .

Great fun ! 

[ICE COLD]

Still -11 to -13 uppers over us at day 11 . 

[snowray]

Decent snow cover by D10, with drifting snow, bitterly cold in a northerly wind flow.

 

Edited January 15, 2020 by snowray

[tight isobar]

I point blankrefuse to use raw gfs precipitation  models..especially  in a run sequence. .

but let me tell you...

anything  close to the 18th run. ..and it's pass me the shovel-in pretty much any geographical  point. ..UK. ...

Edited January 15, 2020 by tight isobar

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Could well be some thundersnow .

Warmish sea , the source of the air and depth of cold should see some very lively snow showers .

Great fun ! 

Yes bring it on

our seas haven't cooled that much due to the mild winter that we have at the moment so convection will be a bonus.

 

[ICE COLD]

Be good to see widespread lows like this

[markw2680]

Normally these kind of things get me very excited, very excited indeed, the big problem for me here is if this actually came off I’d be screwed as I’m travelling from brum to Blackpool that weekend in a v8 rear wheel drive!

Oh well BRING it on yessssss

Edited January 15, 2020 by markw2680
Mistake

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Could well be some thundersnow .

Warmish sea , the source of the air and depth of cold should see some very lively snow showers .

Great fun ! 

Yes - very unstable airmass - probably quite dry for me, i don't think there would be a huge dumping but certainly not worried about that at this stage as with such an unstable airmass, a shortwave could easily develop a and a Dec 1990 could occur.

[ALL ABOARD]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Could well be some thundersnow .

Warmish sea , the source of the air and depth of cold should see some very lively snow showers .

Great fun ! 

By the end though you'd be able to probably walk to Iceland from Scotland

[Wilxy]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Could well be some thundersnow .

Warmish sea , the source of the air and depth of cold should see some very lively snow showers .

Great fun ! 

No question about it thunder snow looks very likely if that came off especially around the coasts! Bring it on just need to hope the GEFS supports the idea!

[Ice Day]

Well, last one from me tonight before drifting off (pun intended) into snow filled dreams.  Whilst of course caution needs to be exercised in huge doses, the evolution of how the northerly transpires looks very plausible to me, we just need to see what the 0z's produce.

Back behind the sofa time in the morning.

[Dennis]

Ok freaks GFS18z shows up a festival - 7/8 days to go and see the ideas of the charts 

[ICE COLD]

And then a battleground snow event . Nice run that one . 

[bluearmy]

Desperation makes a two day northerly seem like a ‘47 redux! 
 

clusters show this pub run evolution has about as much chance as anything else in the day 9/11 day period 

lets look for some consistency tomorrow