Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!

[feb1991blizzard]

Plenty of support for Snow showers in the North around 27th -28th on the EPS.

OL3 - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

14-day weather forecast for OL3.

 

[SMU]

Part of the criteria for a stonking Northerly is a mid atlantic high retrograding West into a high exiting Eastern Canada - at the same time ideally the vortex is as deep as possible over Scandi > this creates the coldest Northerly airmass

Whats been missing from the models so far this winter ( indeed for a fair while ) is this 'opportunity' of retrograde-

Its a startling & sad fact that London hasnt seen the -8C isotherm in a winter Month since the end of Feb 18 - so nearly at the 2 years mark!

This winter theres been no link up because either the polar jet has been diving south through the highs in the atlantic or worse > the subtropical jet has been pumping systems NE through the blocks the other way-

Anyway the ECM / UKMO 168 show this retrograde scenario happening > ECM looks like PTB 6 GFS which had -13c across london from a steep Northerly....

Lets hope that actually lands this time- Good model agreement... 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

7 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Yes I wonder if the Welsh high pressure record could be under threat "Highest: 27 January 1992, Sennybridge, Powys 1049.2 hPa."    

List of atmospheric pressure records in Europe - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

 

other pressure values on the rmets article "The Highest of the Highs ╦ Extremes of barometric pressure"

 

Will wait until tomorrows runs then I will probably end up opening a separate thread to monitor this as some around 1050 hpa popping up now,     

[Mucka]

Pub run FI special developing?

 

Edited January 15, 2020 by Mucka

[lamppost watcher]

Could turn out nice this

[snowray]

25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Plenty of support for Snow showers in the North around 27th -28th on the EPS.

OL3 - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

14-day weather forecast for OL3.

 

Look at all that cold air bottled up just north of Iceland, if only we could tap onto some of that.

[ALL ABOARD]

Here she comes and about bloody time. 

 

 

 

[snowray]

Here it comes!

Edited January 15, 2020 by snowray

[ICE COLD]

This could turn into a stonker . Come on

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Look at all that cold air bottled up just north of Iceland, if only we could tap onto some of that.

Well according the the pub run, we maybe about to..... 

This could be a fabulous run, but not to be trusted at this range!

[ICE COLD]

YESSSSSSSSSSS !!!!!!!

[shaky]

Best thing is we get nearly a week of cold and frosty weather before those cold northerly winds set in!!perfect for settling snow!

[Daniel*]

Wow this is going to see beastly cold descend, it has been many years since anything alike 60s were infamous for potent northerly airstreams.

[tight isobar]

gaining...

in both potency /directory. ..

much more defined. .

and in curing a more direct  arctic shot...as per previous  supports. .

and the elonegated 'now siberian master lobe '...is cold holding. ...to say the least...

and is making eyes @us

Edited January 15, 2020 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

BULLSEYE!    -   -12c into Scotland

[Lampostwatcher]

Not to far out in FI either

Cold frosty high then the snow showers from the north a few days later 

 

Boom! !!!

[Allseasons-Si]

I am looking for a weaker pv over NE Canada on this run and i can tell you that over the last couple of days this has waned somewhat and if this continues then the hp cell in the Atlantic has a chance of breaking through that and gaining amplitude into Greenland

here is tonight's 18z at 168 v 18z 192 last night and the 18z 216 the night before

now tell me where most of the upgrades and what area have been substantial

to our NW.

 

[snowray]

9 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well according the the pub run, we maybe about to..... 

This could be a fabulous run, but not to be trusted at this range!

Well at least it starts to kick in at D7/D8 and not right out in deepest FI la la land, so big upgrade on the 18z, not sure if it can be trusted or not but In the past 18z has shown up pattern changes on the odd occasion that have verified so we could be lucky....it would make a welcome change for things to go our way for once in a blue moon.

 

Edited January 15, 2020 by snowray

[ICE COLD]

-11 touching the south east . There you go Mr Murr

[Ice Day]

So at 228 that's virtually the whole of Ireland and the UK under -8 uppers or lower.  That'll do for starters!!!

* Must not get hopes up, must not get hopes up.........

[booferking]

Awakened from my winter slumber.

[Tim Bland]

[feb1991blizzard]

CHESHIRE GAP STREAMER ALERT!!!

@CreweCold

 

Edited January 15, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[ICE COLD]

Pretty much the whole UK under -10 uppers .

[SMU]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

-11 touching the south east . There you go Mr Murr

As mentioned retrograding high pressure + the intensity of the high pressure - is good news