Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Happy New Year!


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Lets us hope that the lag affect into the mjo phases 7>8 have lag effect on the models because it's looking pretty poor IMO 

now let me re-phrase that:-

there is a lag effect of 10-12 days on the mjo so the models will not pick up on this yet

hold tight peeps. 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 hours ago, Don said:

I would say very slightly less poor.  Then again, maybe I'm just glass half empty!

April could be quite warm with that pattern. 2007ish. 

image.thumb.png.1fb203491e7975e121923595a2119b8c.png

We seem to be mirroring 2006/2007 quite closely at present and I'm having suspicions we could be looking at a very troughy and convective solar min summer. Here's hoping!

If you run the 'pressure' through from the first time frame (months 2-4) to the last (4-6) you will see the boundary between the +ve height anomalies and the -ve height anomalies push S when they should really be doing the opposite as we approach summer- which says to me that the GLOSEA concurs. I would wager that next update we see +ve height anomalies in the N Atlantic for May, June, July.

Edited by CreweCold
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
7 hours ago, Beanz said:

ECM looking great for something more seasonal, game on 

 game on for what? if few days of frosty weather is your thing then yes indeed game on ☺️

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - cold, summer - not hot
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands
1 hour ago, syed2878 said:

 game on for what? if few days of frosty weather is your thing then yes indeed game on ☺️

After the dreck we've had so far a few days of frosty weather is better than nothing.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
58 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Nice to see any model showing the chance of snow on low ground, soon, if its not too much to ask! 

Best i can do is a 384 that MIGHT GO ON to show snow  on low ground as opposed to one that actually does in the reliable timeframe im afraid.

image.thumb.png.02038175b2e28ba0c3fa219c0f8a7746.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Surely Ecm is lining up a very potent northerly for months end?? ....two other possitives, winter returns for scandinavia, and going by the upper air temps on the second chart, itll be some time before we have to hear about ice melt over Greenland....uppers off the scale!

Ecm, day 10

 

ECMOPEU00_240_1-7.png

GFSOPEU00_288_2.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
8 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

Lets us hope that the lag affect into the mjo phases 7>8 have lag effect on the models because it's looking pretty poor IMO 

now let me re-phrase that:-

there is a lag effect of 10-12 days on the mjo so the models will not pick up on this yet

hold tight peeps. 

Hi. I posted yesterday that the experts believe that the MJO signal does not really exist, it is a WWB that the algorithms have mistaken for an MJO signal. There is no upper air change that corresponds with the expected MJO signal showing. That is the reason, they say, that we are not seeing it in the models, it is a ghost in the machine!

So really just looking for the tPV to relent and maybe we could see within the ebb and flow of normal machinations some cold air filter our way. No forcing expected this month to get blocking and a more sustained wintry picture. It looks zonal for the rest of the month and probably early February due to the intense tPV circling to our north. The GEFS are awful and the mean at D16 highlights this:

gens-21-1-384.thumb.png.97b399e9592150866958825069a23d92.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
4 hours ago, syed2878 said:

 game on for what? if few days of frosty weather is your thing then yes indeed game on ☺️

For some winter weather! ??

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Hi. I posted yesterday that the experts believe that the MJO signal does not really exist, it is a WWB that the algorithms have mistaken for an MJO signal. There is no upper air change that corresponds with the expected MJO signal showing. That is the reason, they say, that we are not seeing it in the models, it is a ghost in the machine!

So really just looking for the tPV to relent and maybe we could see within the ebb and flow of normal machinations some cold air filter our way. No forcing expected this month to get blocking and a more sustained wintry picture. It looks zonal for the rest of the month and probably early February due to the intense tPV circling to our north. The GEFS are awful and the mean at D16 highlights this:

gens-21-1-384.thumb.png.97b399e9592150866958825069a23d92.png

Some experts say that, some don't.  

If the MJO signal is false then it would make you wonder what's the point of the RMM plots.

I'm not expecting any proper high latitude block  but a potent North or North Westerly is probable towards month end.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
16 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Some experts say that, some don't.  

If the MJO signal is false then it would make you wonder what's the point of the RMM plots.

I'm not expecting any proper high latitude block  but a potent North or North Westerly is probable towards month end.

Happened last winter, in fact the MJO signal was muted most of the time. 

Anyway, until we see even a vague hint of what we should be expecting we cannot rely on the MJO to save January.

The D10 means suggest zonal with a tPV still at its peak and no early sign of any blocking:

1497893_gensnh-21-1-240(6).thumb.png.887dcc250bf849d09aeb238111b7b20d.png322876221_EDH1-240(5).thumb.gif.47527c85a5e16092a22eff1fb60a2ae4.gif

Subtle variations on a theme but both in the same ball park and from previous experience predicting this setup verifies well. The GFS flatter so maybe closer to the ECM mean? Either way looking at the uppers, really nothing to think a change is afoot:

gensnh-21-0-240.thumb.png.bc7ba90d0c43547e8b190ba3186e7169.png1852592703_EDH0-240(1).thumb.gif.a6a9a49a81bde788abcfd08780502693.gif

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Surely Ecm is lining up a very potent northerly for months end?? ....two other possitives, winter returns for scandinavia, and going by the upper air temps on the second chart, itll be some time before we have to hear about ice melt over Greenland....uppers off the scale!

Ecm, day 10

 

ECMOPEU00_240_1-7.png

GFSOPEU00_288_2.png

Yes its an excellent ten day chart, and a really potent Northerly would more than likely follow. 

Problem is its a ten day chart 

Let's see it as a day Four chart then we can go BOOM! 

Edited by SLEETY
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
1 hour ago, IDO said:

Hi. I posted yesterday that the experts believe that the MJO signal does not really exist, it is a WWB that the algorithms have mistaken for an MJO signal. There is no upper air change that corresponds with the expected MJO signal showing. That is the reason, they say, that we are not seeing it in the models, it is a ghost in the machine!

So really just looking for the tPV to relent and maybe we could see within the ebb and flow of normal machinations some cold air filter our way. No forcing expected this month to get blocking and a more sustained wintry picture. It looks zonal for the rest of the month and probably early February due to the intense tPV circling to our north. The GEFS are awful and the mean at D16 highlights this:

gens-21-1-384.thumb.png.97b399e9592150866958825069a23d92.png

Why do experts believe that the MJO does not exist?  I acknowledge that the MJO has been in phases 4-5 so far this month which is never conducive to a cold pattern in the UK.  From the latest forecasts that I have seen it is expected to reach phase 6 this week and next week make it into phase 7.  With that signal, I would have expected that the chances for something colder for the UK are better than they have been so far this winter.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
17 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Why do experts believe that the MJO does not exist?  I acknowledge that the MJO has been in phases 4-5 so far this month which is never conducive to a cold pattern in the UK.  From the latest forecasts that I have seen it is expected to reach phase 6 this week and next week make it into phase 7.  With that signal, I would have expected that the chances for something colder for the UK are better than they have been so far this winter.

I am no expert, a long way from, but I am assuming that the current forecast westerly wind burst is being modelled by the algorithms as the MJO moving through the phases. When the burst stops then the MJO signal will change, or not if the experts are wrong!


Don’t shoot the messenger, I base my forecast on what I see, and the GEFS currently do not show any forcing in the Pacific or any push of cold to the UK.
 

As for the extended EPS, this week so far they have flipped to cold and back to mild for the US and the experts are not impressed with their EPO index! 

Edited by IDO
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Some conflicting views in the USA over the MJO .

Last nights update from  NOAA suggests even though the decaying IOD might be inflating the strength of the signal that it’s clearly there in terms of the convection showing up on the OLR .

And they expect the MJO to effect the mid latitude regions , this isn’t always the case.

They do expect a pattern change in the USA with colder temps in the east.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Some potentially very interesting weather coming up, perhaps: not only is a northerly, of sorts looking more likely, but the warmth (a legacy of the IOD perhaps?) is lurking to our south...Potential for some marked contrasts?

T+333: h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

T+384: h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

All away in faeryland, I know; but, hey, what isn't!:help:

PS: Where has that nifty wee 'UP' arrow gone!:girl_devil:

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

It seems like this potent northerly / north westerly is always at t+384 on the GFS ??‍♂️ I must admit I’m starting to loose hope on this winter

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

There is some disagreement on ENS modeling between GFS and ECM, preferably going forward I would like to see EPS verifying as it moves towards quite a large Scandinavian through scenario which would correlate with predicted rise of AAM/GWO in to Nino atractor phases 4-8 with higher amplitude than seen so far in winter. Perhaps atmosphere is now coupling with week ENSO modulation. Looking at UKMO weak El Nino temperature impact map it also suggests  cold Scandinavia in Jan/Feb. So EPS anomaly days 9-14 looks like a reasonable scenario. Perhaps also backed up with 30mb strat warming that will push core of Vortex towards Scandinavia and Asian sector rather then dreaded Hudson Bay. Few days ago @Glacier Point pointed out similarities with 2006/07 winter with the shift to -AO in February and similar low frequency MJO signal. If you look at 500mb height anomaly departures between 20.01 and 28.02 of 2007 there was a strong Scandi through present. The million dollar question is how far south and west can the through extend this time around to effect more European regions with cold weather, hopefully it will not reserve all cold for Scandi and Baltic but move towards central and western Europe from time to time.

Capture.PNG

Capture1.PNG

Capture2.PNG

Capture3.PNG

Capture4.PNG

Capture5.PNG

Capture6.PNG

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
39 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

 

And finally a look at the latest CFS 200hPa Velocity Potential Empirical Wave Propagation forecast. Red anomalies are indicating drier/inactive phase - no support for precipitation - and green is supportive of moisture and convection thus precipitation/active phase. So the chart clearly shows a very active MJO phase crossing the Pacific. It also shows the declining signal as the MJO moves eastward towards the Western Hemisphere and Africa (Phase 8, as RMM plots are currently showing). So for me, the Ventrice tweet seems to be misleading - but I would like to hear the views of Nick F on my take.

 

I do not think he is arguing that the MJO is not moving through the phases, he is questioning the scale. Possibly implying constructive interference from the WWB? The way the signal declines quickly when the WWB ends seems to support this:

1166394750_ensplume_small(1).thumb.gif.02e6f359aa15cae9b2c2ce91d9934af2.gif

So the movement from phases is as a result of the WWB forcing and that it is temporary and the MJO signal will be lost post-WWB. They are of course all inter-linked but interesting perspective and we will be able to reanalyse in the coming week.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
6 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

1048mb on GFS 06z, close to record breaking.

GFSOPUK06_114_1.png

 

It's a monster high for sure. Shame when we finally get some strong high pressure over the UK it's here and gone within a few days....seems like in other parts of Europe they often get highs lasting a week or two. I know you can't compare like for like, but a longer dry spell would be welcome!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...